Thread by @Mylovanov

Something is brewing between Belarus and Poland and how to understand it

Two Belarusian helicopters conducting training exercises entered Polish airspace. In a change of policy, Poland MoD made a public statement, emphasizing that it was impossible to detect the helicopters. 1/

De facto, Belarusians practiced to enter Polish airspace at the altitude that made it impossible to detect them.

Why?

Obviously, it is a provocation, not an mistake. The border now is clearly marked and the altitude was low enough to have good visibility. 2/

The provocation has a flavor similar to the statements of Wagner expressing desire to enter Poland.

Poland will have to respond to these and other provocations by diverting military and financial resources from supporting Ukraine to protecting its border with Belarus 3/

So, basically, Wagner and Belarus are now starting to be more active and provocative in the region to stretch both Polish and Ukrainian resources (in the north) and decrease immediate direct support from Poland to Ukraine. 4/

At the same time, Russia pulled out from the grain deal and hence forced Ukrainian farmers now to use the border with Poland for export.

But Polish farmers are not happy. As a result, tensions between Poland and Ukraine are coming under additional pressure 5/

And the relationship is under sufficient pressure already. For instance, a Polish deputy minister of foreign affairs has just made comments publicly on a national TV that “there are many issues that Poland and Ukraine disagree about” 6/

Russia is using all available instruments to break unity between Ukraine and its allies.

It is important to recognize it, keep cool, and counteract Russia.

The most effective way remains supporting Ukraine with weapons it needs and impose no restrictions on how Ukraine’s useX