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I read the local news sources in the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic, so you don't have to. Some of it is brain-damaging Russian propaganda. Some of it is what you would read in your local news. And some of it provides hidden military intelligence.
A shortish 🧵
1/7
A shortish 🧵
1/7
Residents of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic are complaining as the price of gas/diesel is skyrocketing, and supply is tight. They don't have shortages, but a station might be out of fuel one day, then another the next.
The Ministry of Coal & Energy was interviewed.
2/7
The Ministry of Coal & Energy was interviewed.
2/7
The spokesperson explained that motor fuel for the DNR is bought from the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange using spot market pricing. The reason?
Local fuel depots in the DNR have been degraded to the point they can't make margin purchases. They have to buy just in time.
3/7
Local fuel depots in the DNR have been degraded to the point they can't make margin purchases. They have to buy just in time.
3/7
If you're buying commodities, that's the most expensive way to purchase things. Logistics disruptions are causing additional problems, but of course, they assured: "There will be and are no fuel shortages."
What does this tell me as a journo/analyst?
A lot.
4/7
What does this tell me as a journo/analyst?
A lot.
4/7
Ukrainian strikes on fuel storage facilities in the occupied territories are having a material impact. Fuel moves through the same logistics networks for the military, and the Russian military has to get its fuel from further and further away.
5/7
5/7
Which, ironically, burns up more fuel when you get to the metaphorical "last mile" moved by trucks that have to travel greater distances.
If continued Storm Shadow strikes push large logistic hubs further back, that will consume more fuel in the occupied territories.
6/7
If continued Storm Shadow strikes push large logistic hubs further back, that will consume more fuel in the occupied territories.
6/7
Reading the local news in the DNR informs me:
1) Ukraine strikes on fuel depots are working
2) Russian fuel supplies are fragile
3) Further disruption could impact Russian logistics
4) The more you can make Russian dependent on trucks traveling longer distances, the better
7/7
1) Ukraine strikes on fuel depots are working
2) Russian fuel supplies are fragile
3) Further disruption could impact Russian logistics
4) The more you can make Russian dependent on trucks traveling longer distances, the better
7/7
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