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Dec 13, 2024 8 tweets 4 min read
The sharp dropoff in glide bomb strikes on Ukraine coincided with four events. A 🧵1/8

👉🏼Ukraine developed the capability to provide near nationwide GPS/GLONASS jamming and spoofing
👉🏼The US, UK, and France lifting restrictions on deep strikes within Russia's 1991 borders using allied-provided weapons
👉🏼The arrival of winter weather conditions
👉🏼Coupled with the targeting of key industrial alcohol plants in the Russian Federation 2/8

With almost 3 weeks of data showing a sharp decrease in sorties conducted by the VKS and the number of glide bombs being used daily falling to summer 2023 levels, a lot of people are asking, why?

The team considered several theories, and we caution you to avoid reaching a causation fallacy.
Aug 20, 2024 11 tweets 6 min read
Kursk Counter-invasion Day 14 Update
19 AUG 2024 18:30 PDT

Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,564² km
Breach: 86.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 1,148² km
🟦Russian claimed/gray area: 416² km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Reported fighting
🔴Russian presence

1/n


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Did you miss our last update on 18 AUG 2024?


The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for 16 AUG 2024

You can use our interactive war map

15 AUG 2024 SITREP

Kursk
2/n
link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
patreon.com/posts/russia-u…
Aug 19, 2024 12 tweets 7 min read
Kursk Counter-invasion Day 13 Update 18 AUG 2024 18:30 PDT

Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,556² km
Breach: 86.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 1,143² km
🟦Russian claimed/gray area: 413² km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Reported fighting
🔴Russian presence

1/n


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Did you miss our last full update on 16 AUG 2024?



The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for 16 AUG 2024


You can use our interactive war map

15 AUG 2024 SITREP

Kursk
2/n
link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
patreon.com/posts/russia-u…
Aug 17, 2024 14 tweets 9 min read
Kursk Counter-invasion Day 11 Update
16AUG 2024 20:00 PDT
Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,419² km
Breach: 86.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 1,121² km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 298² km
🏁Ukraine presence
💥Reported fighting
🔴Russian presence

1/n


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Did you miss our last update?



The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for 16 AUG 2024


You can use our interactive war map

15 AUG 2024 SITREP

Kursk
2/n
link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
patreon.com/posts/russia-u…
Aug 15, 2024 14 tweets 9 min read
Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 9
Update 14 AUG 2024 17:00 PDT

Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,265 sq km
Breach: 85.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 883 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
💥Reported combat
🔴Russian presence

We know more, OPSEC 🤐

1/n


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Did you miss our last update?


The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 14, 2024, is live


You can use our interactive war map

August 13, 2024, SITREP


Kursk
2/n
link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
patreon.com/posts/russia-u…
Aug 14, 2024 18 tweets 10 min read
Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 8 Update
13 AUG 2024 17:30 PDT
Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,059.3 sq km
Breach: 73.4 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
🟧Ukraine control: 769.5 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Claimed fighting
🔴Russian presence

1/n


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Did you miss our last update?

The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 13, 2024, is live


You can also use our interactive war map

Kursk
2/n
link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
Aug 13, 2024 15 tweets 8 min read
Kursk Offensive Day 7 Update
12 AUG 2024 17:00 PDT

Retweet appreciated

Breach: 73.4 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
Ukraine control: 689 sq km (high confidence🟧)
Russian claimed/gray area: 273 sq km (🟨)
Total area: 962 sq km

🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed

1/n


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Did you miss yesterday's update?


The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 12, 2024 is live


You can also use our interactive war map:


2/n
Kursk
link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
Aug 11, 2024 12 tweets 7 min read
Kursk Offensive
Day 6 Update 11 AUG 2024 12:45 PDT

Retweet appreciated

Breach: 63.6 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
Ukraine control: 611 sq km (high confidence🟧)
Gray area: another 337 sq km (📷)
Total area: 948 sq km

🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed

1/n


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If you missed our 10 AUG 2024 16:45 PDT Update, you can find it here.


You can also visit our war map


Kursk
2/n
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
Aug 10, 2024 11 tweets 6 min read
Kursk Offensive Day 5 Update 10 AUG 2024 16:45 PDT

Retweet appreciated

Breach: 58.9 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
Ukraine control: 536 sq km (high confidence🟧)
Gray area: another 320.7 sq km (🟨)
Total area: 856.7 sq km

🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed

1/n


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Russian sources claim, without evidence, that Ukrainian forces occupied Krasnooktyabrskoe and reached the eastern edge of Korenevo. No change at Korenevo. Russian claim extended from Snagost to Krasnooktyabrskoe.

Kursk
2/n Image
Aug 9, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read
Kursk Offensive Day 4 🧵
Update: 09 AUG 2024 13:15 PDT

Yellow Zone is Russian-claimed

Breach: 56.8 km
Depth: up to 21.2 sq km
Ukraine control: 528.4 sq km (moderate confidence)
Gray area: another 246 sq km
Total area: 776.4 sq km

🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed

1/n


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We noticed that the media is quoting our work (with attribution). Thank you, and hello. There is more about us at the end of the thread.

We pulled back the Ukrainian advance in the direction of Snagost because, after multiple Russian claims, there's no evidence.

2/n Image
Jul 1, 2024 12 tweets 3 min read
Presidential Immunity

My wife was born, went to university, and started her career in a country where the government collapsed.

Years ago I asked her, what were the warning signs? What was going on in the months, weeks, and days before the government failed?

1/12 Her answer stunned me.

"Nothing."

You ate dinner, cleaned up, went to bed, woke up in the morning, and the news tells you the government failed.

No warning signs.

Nothing.

It just happened.

Yes, the news talked about the problems before, but collapse? Never.

2/12
Apr 20, 2024 14 tweets 7 min read
The attempt to add amendments to HR 8035 exposed the pro-Putin Fifth Column in Congress. 12 congresspersons submitted 24 amendments that were based on or were pure Kremlin propaganda.

Say hello to the US House of Representatives Fifth Column.

🧵1/14 Image Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia led with 10 of the 24. She touched on almost every Kremlin talking point and submitted at least 13 additional amendments.

Nazis, Christian persecution, biolabs which not even the Kremlin pushes anymore, Transcarpatha, Zelenskyy legitimacy

2/14
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Apr 11, 2024 11 tweets 4 min read
Three questions.

1) Does the Geneva Conventions/International Humanitarian Law consider oil refineries a civilian target?

2) Does established US Military doctrine consider refineries civilian targets?

3) Has The Hague or the UN ever considered the question?

A 🧵 1/11 The @ICRC is the keeper of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and is assigned by the Geneva Conventions as the international watchdog. IHL is published online, with the doctrine of dozens of miliaries and previous case law. Here is the link.

2/11

ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-i…
Oct 29, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
The amount of disinformation circulating on TikTok about Israel-Hamas is astounding.

We're also seeing clear signs of paid disinformation campaigns that started between October 15 and 20 that are well-funded and sophisticated.

A very short 🧵

1/8
Troll farms and "oppositional marketing firms" will hack, create and store, and buy real social media accounts to use for their purposes. Yes, there is a secondary market for people who decide they don't want their Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc., and sell them.

2/8
Aug 16, 2023 12 tweets 6 min read
A 🧵 about Rybar and the info they share.

Let's talk about the fall of Rybar as a semi-reliable information source for the Russia-Ukraine War.

And to be clear.

Friends! #NAFO! Countrymen! Lend me your ears! For I have come to bury Rybar, not to praise them.

1/12 Image First, who is behind Rybar? Mikhail Zvinchuk, "former" Russian Defense Ministry press service officer, and Denis Shchukin are the founders.

Both are believed to be tied to the FSB.

Rybar's operating budget is estimated to be $20K USD a month.

2/12
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Aug 8, 2023 13 tweets 3 min read
A 🧵
I read the news in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic so you don't have to. Local news is a combination of brain damaging Russian propaganda, the same type of new that happens in your home town, and sometimes military intelligence between the lines.

1/13 Tap water has always been an issue in the Donbas back to Soviet times. The region is surprisingly dry despite what you see on the map. When Russia started its war of aggression in 2014, the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal was cut off.

2/13
Aug 2, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
I read the local news sources in the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic, so you don't have to. Some of it is brain-damaging Russian propaganda. Some of it is what you would read in your local news. And some of it provides hidden military intelligence.

A shortish 🧵

1/7
Residents of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic are complaining as the price of gas/diesel is skyrocketing, and supply is tight. They don't have shortages, but a station might be out of fuel one day, then another the next.

The Ministry of Coal & Energy was interviewed.

2/7
Jun 30, 2023 21 tweets 9 min read
A 🧵

The threat at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Last week we sounded the alarm on Twitter and the daily Situation Report that while the overall chance of an intentional accident at ZNPP is low, current threats should be taken very seriously

1/21 ZNPP has 6 Soviet-era designed VVER-1000 nuclear reactors and is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe

It can produce 5700 MW of power, and the reactors were commissioned between 1985 and 1996, Reactor 6 is the newest

2/21
Jun 8, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
A 🧵

There is another impact of the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam - shipping - specifically cargo traffic on the Dnipro River

There are several benefits to moving cargo via boat on riverways versus trucks and trains, one big one, it's cheaper

1/7 Image In 2021, approximately 11 million tonnes of cargo was transported on the Dnipro River

The top three cargos were

1) Building materials
2) Grains
3) Metal and metal products

2/7 Image
Jun 6, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
A 🧵

The issues of Russian sustainment, supply, and logistics are well documented

This is the KPTM-3 landmine dispenser used to remotely deploy a PTM-3 antitank mines

Russia is using these by the tens of thousands, but there is a new problem at the front

Batteries

1/7 Image The PTM-3 antitank mine is a shaped HE charge and can be programmed to autodestruct

It is deployed by a man-portable system, Grad and Smerch rockets, UMZ minelayer, or VSM-1 helicopter dispensing system

Each one has a battery

2/7 Image
Jun 1, 2023 5 tweets 3 min read
Misinformation/Disinformation Alert

Sloppy journalism is causing a fake story about Javelins and AT-4 antitank weapons in Ukraine ending up in Mexico to spread

This is false

No Javelins

ATGM and RPG have been used by Mexican cartels for 15+ years

1/5

france24.com/en/20090727-sw… These weapons are coming from two sources; the United States, where drugs are sometimes exchanged for small arms and other weapons

Latin American and South American nations littered with old US ordnance

2/5

npr.org/2023/04/21/117…

france24.com/en/20090727-sw…