Last year, I wrote an analysis of Trump vs. Putin. I concluded there were two absolutes for both men.

1) Both hate hearing "no."

2) Both hate disloyalty.

When I wrote that analysis, I predicted they were on a collision course due to their egos and motivations.

1/16 As spring turned into summer, my hope faded as Trump repeatedly gave Putin "two weeks" despite it being painfully obvious that Witkoff was not the right guy to speak on behalf of the White House, and Putin was stringing Trump along.

2/16

With Zapad-2025 just 3 days away, it would be foolish to dismiss tonight's airspace violations into Poland as "accidental" and not representing a threat.

This is not to say that Russia is planning to attack Poland using Zapad-2025 as a cover.

Military doctrine 101 teaches that a provocation this close to the start of major wargames on a nation's border should be viewed as a significant threat, and appropriate preventative measures should be taken.

1/9 It is extremely alarming that full ground stops were issued at Lublin and Rzeszów airports, as both are major logistics hubs for military aid into Ukraine. Rzeszów is also a major U.S. logistics hub for Eastern Europe. This is in addition to the ground stops at Warsaw and Modlin.

2/9

Apparently, who feeds America needs to be explained to people. There is nuance.

1/20 Not all undocumented workers are exploited by their employers and paid slave wages. Many are paid a fair and legal wage. Some workers commit the crime of using the social security numbers of dead people and other individuals. Some of those workers are even assisted by their employers.

2/20

It will cost Russia as much, if not more, to service the bonds currently being sold versus what the bonds are raising for the government in the short term.

Breaking the Russian economy is the path to peace.

1/21

https://twitter.com/evgen1232007/status/1945507289265275191

As of July 11, the Kremlin was running a deficit of over 5 trillion rubles, almost double the available funds remaining in the wealth fund. April's tax receipts did little to improve the situation. This is a ticking bomb on a short fuse.

2/21

A surprisingly lucid doom post from the Telegram channel Veteran's Notes (Notes of a Veteran) from 13 July:

"No one is thinking of recognizing the new territories included in the Constitution of the Russian Federation..."

1/12 ...Even if the Russian Federation now abandons Kherson and [Zaporizhzhia] and agrees to conclude a deal on the front line at the moment, no one will recognize the liberated territories, including Crimea, as Russian lands...

2/12

After declining for months, the number of Russian officers being killed in action has increased sharply (yes, I'm accounting for the backlog and May 2025 war memorial updates).

There are 2 reasons for this.

1/7

https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1943397630286987653

Russia has a top-down command structure and no NCO corps. Subordinates are not empowered to overcome, adapt, and improvise. This has been a cornerstone of Russian military doctrine since the Tzars.

This forces senior officers to the frontlines.

2/7

Correct, and @AndrewPerpetua's tweet yesterday about visually confirmed Russian daily casualties vs. the number of attacks supports our February 26 analysis that Russia's combat potential has peaked and is entering a slow decline.

A 🧵🔽

1/n

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1931037870908641419

Neither combatant can do anything "big," but Ukraine has been forced to think outside the box (Operation Spiderweb).

2/n

Are They Federal Agents or Federally Appointed Goon Squads

Equipment, training, and tactics used in Newark and Worcester raise serious questions about who has been empowered by the federal government to enforce immigration law.

🧵

1/15 The video showing the arrest of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is only 72 seconds long, but it raises many questions about who is enforcing the law.

Baraka has since been released, and new videos show that Congresspersons didn't "storm" Delaney Hall, and were granted peaceful access. This video happens outside of the Delaney perimeter.

2/15

Most of Russia's territorial gains were in the Toretsk-Niu York area of operation, capturing a handful of smaller settlements and villages and advancing using treelines into some fields.

203 casualties per sq km is brutal.

It's worth noting that Russia lost territory south and southwest of Pokrovsk, and we maintain that the area around Sribne is a giant gray area. Russian forces have not been observed west of the village since 10-12 April, and anything that was geolocated was obliterated.

It also appears that Ukrainian forces have finally stabilized new defensive lines in the Vremivka Ledge (Velyka Novosilka) area.

1/5 Coming into May, the areas that concern us the most include:

1️⃣The Russian bridgehead over the Oskil River north of Kupiansk - we maintain this should have been dealt with in February
2️⃣The Russian advance west of Terny/Yampolivka in the direction of Lyman and/or Borova
3️⃣Russia's reprioritization of capturing Kostiantynivka

2/5

The Port of Seattle shows a tariff-created consumer Armageddon coming?!?!

Not so fast, because the truth lies in the middle, and part of the story is being misrepresented.

1/6 You've probably seen this picture as proof that the Port of Seattle has no ships or containers left. Trucking has stopped, and the last ship from China arrived today.

This is Terminal 46, the closest to the Coleman Dock Ferry Terminal.

2/6

Since mid-March, Russia has carried out numerous multi-company and battalion-size daylight zerg rushes using cobbled-together Russian mechanized infantry formations. These attacks have not resulted in anything more than marginal gains. Repeated attacks by small groups of light infantry continue to be far more successful.

1/19 For the mechanized assaults, most don't even make it to the line of conflict, and what little does get past rarely consolidates any gains. In April, we noted two cases where not only did large mechanized assaults fail, but Russian forces ended up losing positions.

2/19

A cautionary tale:

Israeli forces, police, national guard, internal security, Mossad, and the IDF are internationally known for their, shall we say, low tolerance.

Thousands arrested and held without charges for up to 5 months on sometimes questionable terrorist charges, a long list of accusations of human rights abuses.

Please don't mistake me for a pro-Palestinian. I'm anything but, and I am still embittered by the number of, ehem, "allies," that abandoned me on 8 October 2023 simply because they knew I am Jewish. No other reason. No, "hey tell me your thoughts on," just outright ended what I thought were friendships.

Sorry, I digressed. What's the cautionary tale?

1/10 In 2017, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu was charged with corruption, and he has done everything in his power to drag out that trial while working to gut the power of the judicial branch.

Wait, this sounds familiar.

In 2023, Netanyahu and his far-right supporters were pushing to change the Israeli Constitution to raise the legal standard for Supreme Court decisions, which would essentially gut the court.

2/10

Analysis of Jeddah Talks Between Ukraine and U.S.

It's true! Zelenskyy does not have any cards because he's not playing poker. He just won a game of 3D chess.

The U.S. and Ukraine agree to immediately restore military aid and intelligence sharing and to a 30-day ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War. Negotiations on the "mineral deal" will be restarted.

1/14

Over the weekend, President Trump, Secretary of State Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, and Elon Musk made inflammatory statements and false accusations directed at Ukraine. Zelenskyy and his team didn't take the bait.

Hours before today's negotiation, 337 drones attacked Russia, and according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, at least 91 targeted Moscow. 🧂🧂

Drones and missile and drone debris rained down across Moscow, closing airports, rail lines, and highways and killing and wounding dozens.

That was part of Zelenskyy's 3D chess.

2/14

The White House is setting conditions in the information space to justify a land invasion of Canada.

Someone needs to say it. The messaging is undeniable.

Unless the adults reenter the room, it will happen.

1/9 A) Questioning NATO loyalty and if the Alliance would support the US. Wrapped in a tasty sandwich of what if China attacked! That's not the real reason he is questioning the loyalty. Trump wants a coalition of the willing to help isolate Canada.

2/9

We will learn how far down the authoritarianism slide the U.S. is going on 14 March, when the continuing resolution expires.

The FY2025 budget will reveal the priorities, which agencies and cabinets Congress will defund, and which groups are receiving "classified" dollars.

Today, a YouGov poll found that 41% of the over 4,000 Americans surveyed believe Donald Trump is a "dictator." The remaining 45% don't, and the rest are unsure.

1/10 This weekend, expect a Russian-grade purge to start in the Pentagon. All of the "bad" actions happen over the weekend because that's where bad news goes to die.

Next weekend (or the one after) expect a similar purge in Justice and the FBI to start.

Congresscritters are receiving death threats at an unprecedented level to comply. Those who are giving in should look to Belarus, Georgia, and Hungary to see that complying only delays the inevitable.

There is no reason not to believe the FBI and Justice will start arrests of investigators, Senators, and Congresspersons. It was said aloud. It's in Project 2025. Kash Patel promised it.

The so-called Proud Boys' getting the band back together in Washington, D.C., today, less than 24 hours after the U.S. Marshals deputized Elon Musk's private security detail, was not a coincidence.

They have a plan and a playbook, and it was published. Remember all those "Project 2025 is not real" comments? Those were the same people posting about World War III will be tomorrow, too.

Didn't Putin talk about Oreshnik today?

2/10

The sharp dropoff in glide bomb strikes on Ukraine coincided with four events. A 🧵1/8

👉🏼Ukraine developed the capability to provide near nationwide GPS/GLONASS jamming and spoofing
👉🏼The US, UK, and France lifting restrictions on deep strikes within Russia's 1991 borders using allied-provided weapons
👉🏼The arrival of winter weather conditions
👉🏼Coupled with the targeting of key industrial alcohol plants in the Russian Federation 2/8

With almost 3 weeks of data showing a sharp decrease in sorties conducted by the VKS and the number of glide bombs being used daily falling to summer 2023 levels, a lot of people are asking, why?

The team considered several theories, and we caution you to avoid reaching a causation fallacy.

Kursk Counter-invasion Day 14 Update
19 AUG 2024 18:30 PDT

Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,564² km
Breach: 86.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 1,148² km
🟦Russian claimed/gray area: 416² km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Reported fighting
🔴Russian presence

1/n





Did you miss our last update on 18 AUG 2024?


The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for 16 AUG 2024

You can use our interactive war map

15 AUG 2024 SITREP

Kursk
2/n

https://x.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1823877077558550890

link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
patreon.com/posts/russia-u…

Kursk Counter-invasion Day 13 Update 18 AUG 2024 18:30 PDT

Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,556² km
Breach: 86.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 1,143² km
🟦Russian claimed/gray area: 413² km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Reported fighting
🔴Russian presence

1/n





Did you miss our last full update on 16 AUG 2024?



The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for 16 AUG 2024


You can use our interactive war map

15 AUG 2024 SITREP

Kursk
2/n

https://x.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1823877077558550890

link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
patreon.com/posts/russia-u…

Kursk Counter-invasion Day 11 Update
16AUG 2024 20:00 PDT
Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,419² km
Breach: 86.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 1,121² km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 298² km
🏁Ukraine presence
💥Reported fighting
🔴Russian presence

1/n





Did you miss our last update?



The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for 16 AUG 2024


You can use our interactive war map

15 AUG 2024 SITREP

Kursk
2/n

https://x.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1823877077558550890

link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
patreon.com/posts/russia-u…

Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 9
Update 14 AUG 2024 17:00 PDT

Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,265 sq km
Breach: 85.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 883 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
💥Reported combat
🔴Russian presence

We know more, OPSEC 🤐

1/n





Did you miss our last update?


The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 14, 2024, is live


You can use our interactive war map

August 13, 2024, SITREP


Kursk
2/n

https://x.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1823529101938057329

link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
patreon.com/posts/russia-u…

Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 8 Update
13 AUG 2024 17:30 PDT
Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,059.3 sq km
Breach: 73.4 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
🟧Ukraine control: 769.5 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Claimed fighting
🔴Russian presence

1/n





Did you miss our last update?

The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 13, 2024, is live


You can also use our interactive war map

Kursk
2/n

https://x.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1823150525816393789

link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…