Thread by @chrischirp

Covid update: bigger jump in England hospital admissions with Covid this week (40%⬆️). Also now seeing increase (28%⬆️) in number of patients in hospital primarily because of Covid.

Definitely in a wave but starting from much lower base than previous ones 1/6

Not sure how much it will take it off in Aug with holiday season (and biggest increases are in England holiday areas like the South West). There is a new Omicron variant around called EG.5.1 alongside XBB.1.16, and UKHSA estimate it's got about a 20% weekly growth advantage. 2/6

But, as @kallmemeg pointed out, we've not seen big waves in variants with growth advantage of around 20% - previously needed 50% growth advantage+ to get big wave...
3/6

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1686788622987530240?s=20

UKHSA estimate EG.5.1 about 12% of UK sequences as of mid July (of which there are sadly not many anymore). Cov-Spectrum estimate (very roughly!) about 33% of cases by end of July 4/6

So... I suspect we'll keep seeing modest increases in cases over August, but then by Sept EG.5.1 will prob be dominant, school, uni start & people back at work and most people >18 months out from last vax & a while from last infection. So I think Sept could see a bigger wave. 5/6

We could of course spend the summer improving indoor air quality in schools, public buildings, workplaces, restaurants, bars, etc which has all sorts of benefits beyond Covid + plan a broader winter booster campaign, but sadly the govt seems to have given up. 6/6

PS @kallmemeg thread on EG.5.1 worth reading too!

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1686785744508010501?s=20

@kallmemeg PPS, the low base we had got to is demonstrated by a record low number of weekly Covid deaths in the last ONS report (70 in a week). They will unfortunately now start to increase again.

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1686296754520563712?s=20

@kallmemeg @threadreaderapp unroll