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Aug 5 9 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Bit of a long thread here.

The Russian tanker hit overnight by a Ukrainian USV, Sig, was a prolific sanctions violator and a major lifeline for the Russian war effort in Syria.
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In 2019, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned the Sig, along with several other vessels and individuals for "participating in a sanctions evasion scheme to facilitate the delivery of jet fuel to Russian forces operating in Syria" Image
"Sovfracht is behind a sanctions evasion conspiracy, orchestrated by the three individuals designated today, to make payments and facilitate the transfer of supplies of jet fuel to Russian forces operating in Syria in support of the Assad government."

home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
I dug up Sig's AIS records from the past year, and it tells a very clear story of near-monthly fuel deliveries.

Sig would sail AIS on until it hit the eastern Mediterranian, go dark for roughly a week, and then pop back up heading towards Russia.

But where was it going? Image
Thankfully, OFAC gave us a pretty good idea of where "These transactions facilitated the sale and delivery of jet fuel in 2016 and 2017 to Banias, Syria, which was used by Russian military aircraft." Image
From the AIS records, I could identify 9 trips in the last 12 months Image
Pulling Sentinel-2 imagery, I was able to ID the Sig sitting off the coast of Baniyas on 3 of those trips:

(clockwise from left) 2023-1-10, 2023-2-19, 2023-5-15.

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Yörük has been absolutely on top of Sig and its sister ship Yaz since 2020.

On 2023-2-19 you can actually see both Sig and Yaz sitting off the coast of Baniyas. This was a major ID confirmation for the low res Sentinel data.

Yörük was able to confirm the pair's outbound trip together on the 15th.

https://t.co/6DvhYbi4NE
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More from @Osinttechnical

Aug 4
Rybar confirms that the Russian tanker Sig (IMO: 9735335, MMSI 273340190) was hit off the Kerch Strait, reports that the engine room flooded (indicates a Ukrainian USV strike). Image
https://t.co/EsS6uyzdJft.me/rybar/50437
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Last reported location via @MarineTraffic Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 24
Big update from the Russian milblogger Rybar this afternoon, looking at Ukrainian moves in Zaporizhia Oblast from the Russian POV:

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct effective strikes, straining Russian fires capabilities in the area.
Image
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Effective counterbattery fire continues, with Ukrainian forces from the 148th Separate Artillery Brigade reportedly arriving in Zaporizhia to reinforce the already large number of systems in the area. Image
Additional HIMARS units have reportedly been deployed to the area Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 20
An observation from my end, relying on open strike information from the 🇺🇦 Air Force-

Russia has used the Onyx cruise missile during a few distinct periods to target Odessa.

(Pre-grain deal cluster)
6/20/22
6/25/22

9/4/22

(Post-grain deal cluster)
7/19/23
7/20/23 Image
The two primary Onyx launch windows align closely with the Black Sea Grain Initiative dates.

The first cluster of missile attacks occurred roughly a month before the grain deal was signed, during a period of heightened tensions.

This new cluster comes as the grain deal ends. Image
It appears that the Onyx is solely being land launched from the K-300P Bastion-P, primarily from the Sevastopol area.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 6
For no reason, a short primer on DPICM ("Steel Rain"), the U.S.' main tube artillery cluster submunition.
M42/M46 DPICM is a small, shaped charge warhead meant to defeat both armor and personnel across a wide area.
The two primary 155mm DPICM rounds are M483A1 (88 individual submunitions, shorter range) and M864 (72 individual submunitions, basebleed for greater range).

Read 5 tweets
Jul 6
The one constant I have seen so far during the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been the quality of Ukrainian artillery forces.

A significant number of Russian artillery assets, rear area units, and logistics assets have been ruthlessly targeted over the past few weeks. (thread)





Ukrainian forces seem much more willing to use HIMARS/GMLRS to take out Russian artillery assets before they move.

Additionally, Ukrainian drones appear to be a bit more prevalent across the front, with regular units passing information both to their own attached artillery and separate artillery brigades.

Read 5 tweets
Jul 5
Ukrainian forces hit a massive stockpile of Russian rocket artillery in Donetsk city.
Location (48.066747, 37.901589)
The rockets were stored in an abandoned development, but secondary explosions reportedly injured a number of people in Makiivka
Read 5 tweets

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