Tatarigami_UA Profile picture
Aug 5, 2023 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
In continuation of the conversation regarding the current state of russian bases and available vehicles, today, I will cover one of the bases that belong to the 3rd Motor Rifle Division in Boguchar.

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🧵Thread: Image
2/ The current third division was reformed in 2016, moved to Boguchar and Valuiki under the command of the 20th army. Boguchar base hosts the 252nd Motor Rifle Regiment, 99th SPG Regiment, 337th Separate Engineer Battalion, 911th Separate Supply BN, and 231st Separate Medical BN.
3/ Current satellite analysis shows a decrease in the numbers of vehicles on the base, mostly due to deployments and losses. There might be inaccuracies due to the limitations in image quality, which can hinder precise vehicle recognition. Image
4/
Firstly, there has been a significant decrease in the number of tanks and armored fighting vehicles present on the base. In 2021, there were hundreds of these vehicles, which reduced to less than 100 at the beginning of 2023, and as of June 2023, there were only few dozens. Image
5/
Secondly, there is a decline in the number of trucks and engineering equipment, although they remain much less affected compared to the heavy armored vehicles.

Lastly, the number of artillery pieces fluctuates, showing an increase or decrease based on unit rotations. Image
6/ These observations reflect the dynamic development of a combat unit in Ukraine. The absence of vehicles does not necessarily indicate their loss but can also indicate their current deployment. The 3rd Motor Rifle Division operates three bases, and this is one of them. Image
7/ There's been a reduction in artillery and AFV's numbers, evident from Oryx and imagery. Their inventory is lower than pre-war levels, indicating limited strategic capabilities. However, it remains significant, posing considerable challenges for Crimea and Donbas liberation Image
8/ Further analysis shows that this provides only a very general idea of the remaining capabilities. Notably, a significant portion of their equipment, including artillery and tank pieces, is primarily supplied to frontline units directly from repair and restoration facilities. Image
/9 Considering this, I intend to publish an analysis next week, focusing on certain restoration facilities in Russia. These facilities play a crucial role in vehicle restoration and recovery, providing a better understanding of their capacities. Image
I express my gratitude to all the contributors who donated via Buy Me A Coffee. Thanks to your support, I was able to purchase imagery, including tank repair facilities, which will be published next week with more details on restoration capabilities

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Oct 14
SLB, the world’s largest offshore drilling company headquartered in Texas, continues to operate in Russia despite international sanctions, according to documents published by the analytical firm @dallasparkua. 🧵Thread: Image
2/ In March 2022, SLB publicly announced that it would suspend all new investments in the Russian market in response to international sanctions. This was in the statement from Chief Executive Officer Olivier Le Peuch, issued from the company’s Houston headquarter Image
3/ In October 2022, the company underwent a global rebranding, changing its name from Schlumberger to SLB. The Russian subsidiary retained the name Schlumberger Technology Company. However, leaked correspondence point that it continues to be integrated into SLB’s global framework
Read 8 tweets
Oct 13
Breaking: On October 13, Russia’s Government Legislative Commission backed a Defense Ministry bill allowing the use of reservists for defense-related tasks in peacetime. The measure expands the military’s authority to call up reservists for wartime needs. 🧵Thread:Image
2/ According to the draft law, “special assemblies” are military call-ups for specific defense missions during armed conflicts, counterterrorism operations, or when forces are deployed abroad. Only reservists will be subject to these special assemblies.
3/ Russia’s mobilization reserve consists of individuals who have voluntarily signed contracts to remain in reserve. Putin established the country’s mobilization manpower reserve in 2015 through an executive decree.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 12
Our report on Russia’s tank production and expansion plans has, predictably, drawn significant attention and generated many questions. Rather than replying individually, we decided to answer the most common ones - and even address questions about the Armata. 🧵Thread:
2/ Question (Q): Do we know what production vs. overhaul and modernization numbers look like?

A: Yes, at least for 2027–2029:

2027: 232 production, 58 overhaul/modernization
2028: 280 production, 138 overhaul/modernization
2029: 253 production, 147 overhaul/modernization Image
3/ Q: Do we know which tanks are being modernized, and into what models?

Yes. According to the documents:

T-90A, T-72B/B1, and T-72B3/B3M are upgraded to T-90M2.
T-90A also modernized to T-90M.
T-72A, BK, B1, B1K, and BA are converted to T-72B3M.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 11
Russia’s T-90 tank production in 2024 reached around 240 units, including both new and modernized tanks. But internal planning papers analyzed by Frontelligence Insight show Moscow’s plan to lift output by 80% and launch production of a new T90 variant. 🧵Our Special Report: Image
2/ Our investigation began with what appeared to be a routine document: Uralvagonzavod requested “IS-445” engine RPM sensors from Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant (ZOMZ) for a project listed as “Product 188M2.” This single line became the starting point of a larger discovery Image
3/ Digging deeper, we identified “Product 188M2” as the T-90M2, the latest variant of the T-90M (Product 188M). A careless online bio from a Russian engineer posted on Russian Scientific and Engineering Union revealed its name: “Ryvok-1", which roughly can be translated as Dash-1 Image
Read 15 tweets
Oct 10
Recently, @CITeam_en has raised some good and bad points about verifying the authenticity of RU mil documents. I’ll start with a pushback: the notion that the legitimacy of Russian documents can be judged by whether they have all the formal characteristics is outdated:
2/ While it is true that all classified documents follow strict protocols, the reality of war is far messier. Most documents are produced internally, shared outside of formal chains: in Excel, Word, or PDF formats and shared through messengers, email, or other convenient channels
3/ I have personally reviewed hundreds, if not thousands, of pages of Russian documents: leaks, data from captured phones or submissions to our team, that contained sensitive information. Yet only a tiny fraction carried any formal classification stamps, despite being valuable
Read 7 tweets
Oct 9
Despite progress, including holding Pokrovsk, inflicting tangible casualties, and striking Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, it would be dangerous for Europe to assume that “Ukraine has this.”

The battlefield situation has improved but remains suboptimal.

🧵Thread:
2/ The recent negative dynamics in Kupyansk show that the fundamental issue of Ukraine’s military remains: it is forced to operate in a fire-brigade fashion, reinforcing threatened sectors of the front such as Pokrovsk at the cost of other directions.
3/ As our team’s investigation into desertions shows, Russian troops are abandoning their posts at increasingly growing rate. Yet desertions still remain more frequent on the Ukrainian side, and Moscow is more effective at returning its troops to the front.
Read 5 tweets

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