In continuation of the conversation regarding the current state of russian bases and available vehicles, today, I will cover one of the bases that belong to the 3rd Motor Rifle Division in Boguchar.
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2/ The current third division was reformed in 2016, moved to Boguchar and Valuiki under the command of the 20th army. Boguchar base hosts the 252nd Motor Rifle Regiment, 99th SPG Regiment, 337th Separate Engineer Battalion, 911th Separate Supply BN, and 231st Separate Medical BN.
3/ Current satellite analysis shows a decrease in the numbers of vehicles on the base, mostly due to deployments and losses. There might be inaccuracies due to the limitations in image quality, which can hinder precise vehicle recognition.
4/ Firstly, there has been a significant decrease in the number of tanks and armored fighting vehicles present on the base. In 2021, there were hundreds of these vehicles, which reduced to less than 100 at the beginning of 2023, and as of June 2023, there were only few dozens.
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Secondly, there is a decline in the number of trucks and engineering equipment, although they remain much less affected compared to the heavy armored vehicles.
Lastly, the number of artillery pieces fluctuates, showing an increase or decrease based on unit rotations.
6/ These observations reflect the dynamic development of a combat unit in Ukraine. The absence of vehicles does not necessarily indicate their loss but can also indicate their current deployment. The 3rd Motor Rifle Division operates three bases, and this is one of them.
7/ There's been a reduction in artillery and AFV's numbers, evident from Oryx and imagery. Their inventory is lower than pre-war levels, indicating limited strategic capabilities. However, it remains significant, posing considerable challenges for Crimea and Donbas liberation
8/ Further analysis shows that this provides only a very general idea of the remaining capabilities. Notably, a significant portion of their equipment, including artillery and tank pieces, is primarily supplied to frontline units directly from repair and restoration facilities.
/9 Considering this, I intend to publish an analysis next week, focusing on certain restoration facilities in Russia. These facilities play a crucial role in vehicle restoration and recovery, providing a better understanding of their capacities.
I express my gratitude to all the contributors who donated via Buy Me A Coffee. Thanks to your support, I was able to purchase imagery, including tank repair facilities, which will be published next week with more details on restoration capabilities
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Amid numerous global events, tracking everything is challenging. Considering globally important developments in Niger - a strategic location with French and US military presence, and potential Wagner involvement, I made a summary with contributions from other OSINTers. 🧵Thread
2/ This thread chronologically summarizes events starting from a coup in Niger, escalating to a potentially larger conflict involving multiple countries, and potential growth of Wagner and jihadists in the region. Key points in chronological order by day are as follows:
3/ July 26th
- On July 26th, at 5:30 am local time, the Presidential Palace in Niger's capital, Niamey, was blocked by presidential guard vehicles. This was followed by a public statement announcing the creation of CNSP (junta body) with Tchiani appointed as its leader.
This thread analyzes the situation at Berdyans'k airport, focusing on russian helicopters. Amid the ongoing offensive, observers may find it puzzling that these helicopters remain unscathed at their base in Berdyans'k, enabling them to swiftly access the frontlines.
2/ The russian air threat persists in this counter-offensive, demanding additional consideration. One strategy involves neutralizing helicopters on the ground before they take flight. While the airfield is within Ukraine's long-range capabilities, the situation is more complex
3/ One major challenge is the significant spacing between helicopters, making it difficult to effectively target them with a single missile. Given the limited availability of long-range weapons, using a missile that may or may not destroy some Mi-24s becomes hard to justify.
Introducing a great interview on Africa's geopolitics, featuring @SimTack an experienced military and intel analyst who covered regional conflicts for prominent firms like Stratfor. We discussed Mali, Wagner, and Niger coup, offering insights into Africa's complexity. 🧵Thread:
2/ Q: Recently, multiple events like a coup in Niger and ongoing turmoil in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso have captured global attention. To provide some context, could you please offer a concise overview of the current situation in the region?
3/ A: Through recent events, a trend is showing that local democratic traditions and international cooperation are being replaced by authoritarianism and crude uninformed efforts at securitization. Niger is just the last in a series of countries, following Mali and Burkina Faso,
Russian forces have faced notable challenges, dealing with substantial losses, logistical hurdles, morale issues, and equipment deficiencies. To further analyze, I will examine several training grounds to assess whether they have reached critical levels. 🧵Thread:
2/ Due to security considerations, detailed information regarding enemy personnel and vehicle concentration across russia shouldn't be disclosed. Instead, I will provide general overview of two training grounds in Rostov and Volgograd oblast
3/ Kadamovskyi military training ground in Rostov Oblast, Russia, serves as one of the several training grounds for the 150th motor rifle division, which falls under the Southern Military District. A substantial number of units from this division are currently deployed in Ukraine
🧵Today I would like to present manual that circulates among soldiers from occupied Donetsk and Luhansk. This manual focuses on on-field experience and covers most of the basics for a soldier's training. In this case, focus lies on the section dedicated to defense organization.
2/ The manual covers a wide array of topics, including minefields, communications, infantry firearms training, firearm customization, ambushes, assault tactics, open field and building assaults, and the organization of defense positions.
3/ General recommendations for platoon strongpoints:
Strongpoints depend on essential fire support from attached forces like mortar, ATGM, heavy machine gun, AGS teams, or artillery. These resources should not be positioned directly within the defensive strongpoint's territory.
Recently, I mentioned the issue of Russian colonists replacing Ukrainians, who either fell victim to violence, was forcibly displaced, or had to flee. Today, I will provide several examples of tactics used by Russians to reshape the population on occupied territories.
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2/ According to the "Interagency Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response," around 40,000 people remain in camps, including over 10,000 children. Russia claims to provide "social security" payments to over 1.4 million people, indicating a larger number of displaced
3/
-Between May and June, around 600 individuals were deported from Dokuchaevsk, Starobilsk, and Debaltseve to Rostov Oblast.
- In Zaporizhia Oblast, teachers who refused to comply with new Russian educational programs faced interrogations, intimidations, and deportation.