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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Aug 7 • 5 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
NEW: #Ukraine struck two key road bridges along critical Russian grounds lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied #Crimea & occupied #Kherson causing Russian forces to reroute road traffic from shorter eastern routes to longer western routes. https://t.co/a1pfQnh7Eoisw.pub/UkrWar080623
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2/ Ukrainian strikes significantly damaged a road bridge across the #Henichesk Strait connecting Henichesk Raion to the Arabat Spit and caused minor damage to the #Chonhar road bridge along the M-18 (Dzhankoi-Melitopol) highway connecting occupied #Crimea with occupied #Kherson.
3/ #Russian officials announced that they will reroute all traffic through the Armyansk and Perekop checkpoints along the M-17 (Armyansk-Oleshky) and T2202 (Armyansk-Nova Kakhovka) highways.
4/ The M-17 highway passes through Armyansk before branching with the T2202 highway to the north and continuing to the northwest, meaning that most if not all Russian road traffic between #Crimea and Kherson Oblast will have to pass along or close to one 20km section of the M-17.
5/ This major bottleneck in #Russian GLOCs will likely pose significant disruptions to logistics and chances for delays and traffic jams. isw.pub/UkrWar080623

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Aug 7
#Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov gave an unclear and contradictory answer to a New York Times reporter who asked whether #Russia seeks to conquer more Ukrainian territory beyond the four partially occupied oblasts that Russia illegally annexed in September 2022. 🧵… https://t.co/8MNKzxJoE5twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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2/ The New York Times reported that Peskov said, “No... We just want to control all the land we have now written into our Constitution as ours,” when asked whether Russia seeks to capture more territory in Ukraine. nytimes.com/2023/08/06/wor…
3/ Peskov’s seemingly straightforward answer is contradictory, vague, and does not answer the reporter’s original question.

Russian forces do not fully occupy the four oblasts — Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts — that the Russian government formally claims.
Read 8 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Aug 6
#Ukrainian forces continue to draw #Russian forces to the #Bakhmut area and fix them there despite a slower tempo of Ukrainian operations in the area. (1/6) https://t.co/EQkSfn1H6O https://t.co/QqSGgHz7Anisw.pub/UkrWar080523

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2/ UKR offensive operations on #Bakhmut’s southern & northern flanks have slowed in recent days, and Russian and Ukrainian sources did not report any Ukrainian ground attacks in the area on August 5. The rate of UKR advances in the Bakhmut area has also slowed in recent weeks.
3/ Ukrainian operations around Bakhmut have drawn additional Russian units and formations to the #Bakhmut area and have kept Russian forces in the area, which was likely one of their primary objectives.
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Aug 6
Ukrainian naval strikes are likely part of a deliberate interdiction campaign aimed at setting favorable conditions for larger #counteroffensive operations. https://t.co/drR9xOZID3 https://t.co/VBx7MGFS54isw.pub/UkrWar080523

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2/ Previous #Ukrainian interdiction efforts have mainly focused on #Russian military targets on land, but it seems that Ukrainian forces are now expanding their efforts to include naval targets as part of these efforts.
3/ #Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stated their commitment to a deliberate interdiction campaign against #Russian military targets in order to degrade Russian logistics and defensive capabilities to set favorable conditions for future Ukrainian counteroffensive activity.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Aug 5
Geolocated footage published on August 3 & 4 shows Russian forces firing on Ukrainian naval drones near a Russian naval base in #Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, and one of the naval drones striking the Russian Olenegorsky Gornyak Ropucha-class landing ship. https://t.co/0hF90fpZXyisw.pub/UkrWar080423
2/ The Russian MoD stated that Russian naval artillery fire destroyed 2 UKR naval drones near the base in Novorossisyk. Geolocated footage posted later on August 4 shows the Olenegorsky Gornyak listing and a Russian support vessel towing the landing ship to the #Novorossisyk port
3/ Geolocated footage does not indicate the full extent of the damage to the #OlenegorskyGornyak, and Russian sources claimed that the damage was not critical and that the ship would be operational after an unspecified time of repair.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Aug 3
“[Ukrainian success] depends on the West providing #Ukraine with a constant flow of equipment […] so that Ukraine can maintain its pressure until the Russian forces offer the kinds of frontline cracks the Ukrainians can exploit.

It is not primarily a matter of attrition.” (1/4)
2/ “The slow pace of the pressure campaign #Ukraine had been using before July 26 is designed to minimize Ukrainian losses.

It is not primarily oriented towards attriting Russians either…”
3/ “…but rather towards steadily forcing the Russians out of their prepared defensive positions in ways that the Ukrainians can take advantage of to make operationally significant advances.”
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Aug 3
The situation in #Ukraine still favors #Kyiv despite the limited progress made in the counteroffensive so far.

In a new piece for @TIME, ISW’s @KarolinaAHird & @KatStepanenko join Fred Kagan from @criticalthreats to examine how Ukraine can succeed. 🧵⬇️
https://t.co/at37UuFAHutime.com/6300772/ukrain…
2/ Most likely, #Ukraine will succeed with a steady pressure and interdiction campaign supported by major efforts such as the one now underway can generate gaps in the Russian lines that Ukrainian forces can exploit at first locally, but then for deeper penetrations.
3/ This effort will be slower than many of #Ukraine’s Western backers desire. It also depends on the West providing Ukraine with a constant flow of equipment over many months so Ukraine can maintain its pressure until the Russian frontline cracks in a way that they can exploit.
Read 10 tweets

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