Luckshury Profile picture
Aug 7, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Forming a Daily Bias

a thread 🧵 Image
In this thread, I will cover the following:

- some MS points
- using stats to help my bias
- directional bias through liquidity
market structure

2 timeframes

- 1h
- 15m
(depending on the type of trader you are)

uptrending
downtrending
rangebound

identifying swing points can be done either using manual lookback or via williams fractal indicator (set to 2 on either side of the swing high) Image
market structure (2)

notes -

majority of the time price will be within the "rangebound" category.

breaking that "rangebound" environment then deciphers the trending move you are given Image
high hit rate levels

- level(s) that reset after a certain period (generally daily) which gives me some form of directional bias whether they are below or above price when printed. Image
high hit rate levels (2)

confluence

the most powerful thing is to use this with is Market structure, below is an exact example of how I would do so.

on a day as such my directional bias would be to look for longs. Image
liquidity

resting liquidity is important

if I see there is more resting liquidity on one end of a range over another I would favour that direction for my bias. Image
poor highs/lows

routine check - simply I check my 50tick BTC/USD TPO chart

if there are more than 2 or more blocks at either a high/low then i classify that as a poor H/L

This is typically part of my liquidity routine and these levels have a higher likelihood of being tested. Image
combination

resting liquidity - below price
high hit rate level - below price
poor highs/lows - below price

I would be favoring shorts that day

and visa versa
finding high hit rate levels

in the future, I will share some of mine, currently they do give me too much of an edge to release

what I suggest is to think about levels you generally feel would be revisited then put the work in and get direct figures on a trial-and-error basis
hope you found this valuable, likes and retweets are appreciated

Let me know below what thread you would like to see next šŸ‘‡

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More from @Luckshuryy

Dec 5
entry triggers: a complete guide

a thread 🧵 Image
fading breakout traders:

open interest increases upon a key level being breached, followed by a sharp reversal putting those new positions offside.

when new positions are forced offside it creates fuel for reversion as they are forced out thus trading in the opposite direction. Image
liquidation flushes:

flushes often creates inefficiencies in price, which tend to fill quickly.

longs liquidated in a flush often create a big wick. I trade towards the wick for at minimum a 50% fill.

good for volatile environments towards the end of a big move.

stop positioning in my system would be above the point in which new shorts began entering as if they get caught offside that would revert price.

example ↓Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 21
open interest: a complete guide

a thread 🧵 Image
what is open interest?

total number of outstanding derivative contracts not yet settled.

for every buy there is a sell, but not every buy is a new long and not every sell is a new short.

short close = buy
long close = sell

open interest increases when both sides are opening. Image
open interest indicator:

when plotted as an indicator below price its particularly helpful for spotting:

> new traders becoming offside
> traders opening positions early
> positional squeezes

more importantly, when watching key areas, watching how open interest reacts as you probe certain levels, such as range highs/lows.

one of my favourites is watching new positions rapidly join in minor bounces as price is in free fall, you see them instantly regret this as momentum continues against them and are forced to close.

example ↓Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 10
market microstructure (liquidity)

how markets move...

a thread 🧵 Image
market/limit orders:

the market moves solely based on events not time.

market order (taker)
limit order (maker)

stop orders/triggers → triggered at market and most of the time forced with someone being forced out the market (stopped out).

note - pattern/breakout traders in general can also use trigger orders to buy/sell the breakout.Image
footprint charts:

displays ONLY market orders.

most common setups is to see market sells on the left with market buys on the right → bid-ask profile

I find footprints the best for spotting absorption or exhaustion in the markets as they display already transacted data.

i.e when you see lots of sell orders at the same price level without price able to budge it is sufficient evidence to say limits are holding up price.

footprints do not have to be shown on time based charts only either, they are extremely useful when monitoring volume charts, delta charts or range bars, in particular on lower time frame equivalents.

tldr: footprints show a record of already transacted orders, unlike heatmaps displaying resting orders, which have the ability to be pulled/added to.Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 26
absorption (simplified)

a thread 🧵 Image
what is absorption?

when market orders cannot bypass limit orders you get absorption.

how you spot this is NOT through watching resting limits in the orderbook, but tracking the level of market order aggression at various stages. Image
CVD explained:

cumulative volume delta.

tracks buying/selling pressure over time, this allows for easy comparison between pivots.

it can be displayed as a line, candlesticks, or straight up values. Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 16
market structure (breaks & failures)

a thread 🧵 Image
basics of structure:

at every origin of new structure is a swing point, either a swing high or low.

you can identify swing points easier through the use of 'williams fractal' indicator on tradingview. Image
confirmed breaks in structure:

sustained time spent above swing point (bullish break) without the ability for price to swiftly come back below the level.

market aggressor participants should still be active and quickly push price into an imbalanced state (trending).

I don't want to see CLOSES back below the level, especially when the delta is heavily against the break of structure.Image
Read 7 tweets
Sep 4
fair value gaps (imbalances)

a thread 🧵 Image
also known as:

- single prints
- gaps

the naming is meaningless, the core fundamental behind it is that there is a piece of price which price moved quickly through (one candle), relative to the time frame you look at. Image
first touches:

when price initially revisits this void it can act as a level where:

1. stops are triggered
2. traders attempt to trader for the fill (anticipate a move)

the edge then comes from being able to spot these traders at this initial touch and fade them. Image
Read 8 tweets

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