- some MS points
- using stats to help my bias
- directional bias through liquidity
market structure
2 timeframes
- 1h
- 15m
(depending on the type of trader you are)
uptrending
downtrending
rangebound
identifying swing points can be done either using manual lookback or via williams fractal indicator (set to 2 on either side of the swing high)
market structure (2)
notes -
majority of the time price will be within the "rangebound" category.
breaking that "rangebound" environment then deciphers the trending move you are given
high hit rate levels
- level(s) that reset after a certain period (generally daily) which gives me some form of directional bias whether they are below or above price when printed.
high hit rate levels (2)
confluence
the most powerful thing is to use this with is Market structure, below is an exact example of how I would do so.
on a day as such my directional bias would be to look for longs.
liquidity
resting liquidity is important
if I see there is more resting liquidity on one end of a range over another I would favour that direction for my bias.
poor highs/lows
routine check - simply I check my 50tick BTC/USD TPO chart
if there are more than 2 or more blocks at either a high/low then i classify that as a poor H/L
This is typically part of my liquidity routine and these levels have a higher likelihood of being tested.
combination
resting liquidity - below price
high hit rate level - below price
poor highs/lows - below price
I would be favoring shorts that day
and visa versa
finding high hit rate levels
in the future, I will share some of mine, currently they do give me too much of an edge to release
what I suggest is to think about levels you generally feel would be revisited then put the work in and get direct figures on a trial-and-error basis
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when new positions enter and are placed in an offside position, they will naturally want to close, squeezing the market in the opposite direction.
this natural outburst of breakout traders being caught offside can be a great reason to look for a reversal.
example ā
identifying trapped traders:
requires an understanding of open interest and delta, as open interest will categorically tell you if the majority of positions entering are new ones.
open interest increasing = new positions
open interest decreasing = positions closing
positive delta = longs
negative delta = shorts
breakout traders only appear when there's an increase in open interest; otherwise, most positions you see will be closing.
1) identify the candle in which new positions have largely entered 2) identify a level in which those new positions would be offside 3) trade in the direction of the new positions unwinding
engulfing candles - I look for a candle to wick below the previous candle and close at least beyond the 50% mark the previous candle (bullish engulfing).
I find this to be as effective as waiting for the entire previous candle to be engulfed.
the following day will be biased towards the direction of the previous day engulfing candle.
shooting star - my favourite daily formation, these often result in better entries to much larger moves, failure to extend above/below previous day and end up mean reverting.
example ā
one time-framing:
the most basic thing I always check for - an aggressively trending move.
daily timeframe, for a bullish example - is the daily candle printing 3 or more consecutive daily highs in a row whilst not wicking below previous day.
yes = I will only follow that direction for the remainder of the day should i take any trades.
no = move to next step
Its a simple and effective way to not get caught offside against an aggressively trending market.
There is no definitive way to look at structure, it is something that is really dependent upon individual strategy/system.
I don't take so-called "HTF" trades. I approach the market daily, finding it most useful to track market structure by anchoring it to each individual day.
Doing this removes a lot of higher time frame noise, since i am 98% of the time in and out of a trade within the same day, I want to solely focus on that trend.
note - using range chart or non time-based charts can allow for a much cleaner view of that structure.
example ā
2. Structure change
executing through structure change requires 3 things:
- clean pivot for price to move and revert from
- acceptance - either below a HL or above a LH
- internal level to execute the reversal from
in reference to "a clean pivot", this means the pivot should not be a poor high/low, if it is, then that just increases the likelihood that the pivot can be revisited. I would also prefer to see spikes in volume & liquidations that these pivots.
acceptance - has price seen multiple closes above/below either the HL or LH, as mentioned previously, you can use time-based candles for this but I find it cleaner through range charts, none the less you want to see acceptance to be able to warrant looking for that structure shift trade.
internal level - after confirming a structural shift, the entry can be based on: internal fibs, a volume profile pull, or an anchored vwap from the new pivot. find an entry point at an internal level with your invalidation firmly above the new pivot that price is shifting away from.
simple premise:
wick above or below a level with a close back in the opposing direction.
one of the more simple patterns although extremely effective if you know where to look for it.
It's extremely important not to trade these randomly but only at proven selective levels, especially at pivots/levels where others may stop out or pile in for a breakout trade.
some things I look for:
- internal liquidity [internal from major pivots - least expecting stops hit]
- distance between pivots - time to build up positions before stopping out
- sfp of specific sessions [of London high/low]
nonetheless, an sfp traps excess before allowing it to fuel a reversal.
note - invalidations for a swing failure pattern trade are commonly strictly above/below the sfp candle.
example ā
Engulfed candles:
I most commonly use this for trading against trapped traders.
The engulfed candle likely includes traders opening new positions in that direction, instantly placing them in an offside position.
For further confirmation I check the OI + delta to dial in further whether there is offside traders within the engulfed candle.
Same as any other execution method is to look for this solely at pre planned locations:
- naked pocs
- s/r levels
- intra session pocs
Do not just blindly trade this reversal, there has to be some pre planned substance behind the level.