Thread by @aedwardslevy

New from us:

Americans’ discontent with the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade remains as potent as a year ago, with record-high share saying they’re likely to take a candidate’s position on abortion into consideration when voting.

cnn.com/2023/08/08/pol…

There's a lot in the piece, but I do just want to pull out this slightly wonky crosstab on "cross-pressured" voters, which demonstrates nicely why any attempt to measure an issue's electoral impact is so complicated.

https://t.co/9l3EQS9e2Wcnn.com/2023/08/08/pol…

Anyways, this is one of those keep-several-things-in-mind stories:

-Econ issues still dominate
-Salience of abortion has risen, particularly on left
-Electoral effects depend on if issue matters to swing/inconsistent voters
-In close races, even small effects can be crucial

Oh, and also:

-Issues matter for reasons that have nothing to do with their electoral impact

One other thing that's perhaps relevant to note from our poll out today is what continues to be a pretty significant intensity gap between strong disapprove/strong approve on overturning Roe

(One last thing I'll note, election-unrelated but relevant to surveys: *some* issue qs are volatile/very sensitive to framing, which leads some people to dismiss value of issue polling. But poll after poll has been remarkably consistent on putting opposition to Dobbs in mid-60s.)