"We have a loneliness epidemic, it's making ppl miserable & killing them. Probably due to social media, phones, suburban life, or smthg. Let's go back to meeting in real life!"
No!
Yes, we do spend more time alone:
As time passes, we live more and more alone
As we get older, we also spend more and more time alone!
And look how many people say they're lonely!
Narrative violation: Ppl *want to spend more time alone* as they become richer
Narrative violation: ppl say they're *less lonely* as they age (and spend more time alone)
Narrative violation: in developed countries, the more ppl live alone, the less lonely they say they are
Narrative violation: Generations born between 1920 and 1970 in the US all feel the same level of loneliness
Narrative violation: US teenagers felt *less lonely* over time between 1977 and 2012
Narrative violation: Ppl are committing suicide more than before... mainly in the US!
So what's happening?
Ppl are mixing *loneliness* with *aloneness*
We are spending more time alone
But this is *not* making us lonelier
We like it!
There isn't a loneliness *epidemic*. It's always been there. We should fight it, but it's not new, so it's not due to social media
But hold on. Here's the 2nd level of poor reporting: Teenagers
They *are* committing suicide at alarming rates! Look at 20-34yo:
What's happening? Yes, young adults in the US are more depressive and are committing indeed more suicide, driving the average up
The obvious culprit: Whatever started around 2010-2012 and is causing depression. Social media and mobile phones? Maybe the Great Depression?
And *yes*, there's plenty of evidence that social media and phones do make ppl miserable, especially teenagers and young adults
So if this is true... We should be seeing this across the world, right?
No! Young adults are not committing more suicide in other countries!
Do young ppl have less access to mobile phones & social media in France? In JAPAN?!
In fact, this phenomenon is hard to find in other countries...
Except maybe in North American countries
Whatever is depressing US teenagers so much that they commit suicide more, it's something specific of the US (and maybe its neighbors?)
Indeed, young adults in the US are more prone to depression (but I can't find data on depression since 2000 for OECD countries. @MaxCRoser )
Why do US young adults commit + suicide? This paper explores this question:
• Guns unlikely
• Opioid crisis unlikely
• Surveys suggest there doesn't appear to be more bullying (but then why more depression?)
• Or suicide attempts
Maybe...
• Social media is making existing bullying more aggressive in the US? (but why not elsewhere?)
• Young ppl can more easily find lethal ways to commit suicide online? (but why not elsewhere?)
• Suburban life (but why now?)
• Culture wars?
We should worry about social media & phones, and fight their negative influence
But mixing aloneness, loneliness, and social media is failing to find the pbm
This is specifically a US young adults pbm
If we don't know their pbm, we can't solve it
Let's keep looking for answers
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Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."
Why did 🇮🇱Israel strike 🇮🇷Iran now, and not months or years ago or in the future?
A unique combination of a dozen factors converged to make the moment unique for 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵 1. No Hamas to its southwest 2. No Hezbollah to its north 3. No Assad threat to the northeast
4...
4. No more Syrian army to attack 🇮🇱Israel's planes: As the new forces of HTS took over Syria, Israel bombed all the existing Syrian military. No more fighter jets or surface-to-air missiles to threaten 🇮🇱Israel
5. Ability to fly over Syria to refuel
This is critical, because 🇮🇷Iran is ~600-1000 miles away from 🇮🇱Israel, so 1200-2000 miles round trip
The range of Israel’s stealth F35 is only about 1,350 mi
To operate inside 🇮🇷Iran, 🇮🇱Israel needed refueling over Syria
1. From Feb 2025 to Jun 2025, it increased its amount of enriched uranium by 50% 2. It now had 400kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for 9-10 bombs 3. This is 60% enriched uranium. Fuel only requires 5% enrichment.
4... 🧵
4. It's easy to go from 60% to 90% (weapons grade), it only takes weeks 5. The only country on Earth with such enriched uranium and without a bomb is 🇮🇷Iran 6. The IAEA (nuclear watchdog) found 3 secret nuclear sites
7. When 🇮🇷Iran didn't respond to this accusation, the IAEA censured it 8. 🇮🇷Iran responded to the censoring by saying it would open a 3rd enrichment site in a secret spot
Now that the 🇺🇸US has bombed 3 of 🇮🇷Iran's nuclear sites, where will the war go from here?
It depends on 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵
🇮🇷Iran never wanted the war, and its forces are being decimated. Its ability to send missiles to 🇮🇱Israel is being degraded every day. If it could sign a ceasefire while saving face, it would
Meanwhile, 🇮🇱Israel has kept striking Iran non stop. Its daily airstrikes didn't go down substantially in the first few days. Its ability to keep striking 🇮🇷Iran remains unabated
Can there be an invasion of Iran? Hardly. Two maps explain why, and also why Iran is the way it is today, whether its regime will fall, what other superpowers will do, and in general why Iran is the way it is today
The only truly exposed area is the southwestern corner of Khuzestan, which is a swamp
The biggest superpowers lie to the west, and there the very broad Zagros make it really hard to conquer Iran. The mountain range is tall and wide, making logistics similar to Afghanistan. Very hard.
Iraq learned it the hard way when it tried to attack there in 1980
Listening to the debate, it looks like 🇮🇱Israel & the 🇺🇸US intelligence community disagreed, but that's not really the case!
Both thought Iran was weeks to months away from being able to develop the bomb
So what's the disagreement?
Here are more facts:
• Tehran had just announced a 3rd enrichment site in an undisclosed place
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had recently produced a report censoring Iran for the 1st time in 20y
• It accused Iran of 3 undisclosed nuclear sites
• It claimed Iran had enough enriched uranium for 9-10 nuclear bombs
• All the other countries in the world who have enriched uranium at the same level also have nuclear weapons. Iran is the only country that doesn't have these weapons yet enriches uranium as much