"We have a loneliness epidemic, it's making ppl miserable & killing them. Probably due to social media, phones, suburban life, or smthg. Let's go back to meeting in real life!"
No!
Yes, we do spend more time alone:
As time passes, we live more and more alone
As we get older, we also spend more and more time alone!
And look how many people say they're lonely!
Narrative violation: Ppl *want to spend more time alone* as they become richer
Narrative violation: ppl say they're *less lonely* as they age (and spend more time alone)
Narrative violation: in developed countries, the more ppl live alone, the less lonely they say they are
Narrative violation: Generations born between 1920 and 1970 in the US all feel the same level of loneliness
Narrative violation: US teenagers felt *less lonely* over time between 1977 and 2012
Narrative violation: Ppl are committing suicide more than before... mainly in the US!
So what's happening?
Ppl are mixing *loneliness* with *aloneness*
We are spending more time alone
But this is *not* making us lonelier
We like it!
There isn't a loneliness *epidemic*. It's always been there. We should fight it, but it's not new, so it's not due to social media
But hold on. Here's the 2nd level of poor reporting: Teenagers
They *are* committing suicide at alarming rates! Look at 20-34yo:
What's happening? Yes, young adults in the US are more depressive and are committing indeed more suicide, driving the average up
The obvious culprit: Whatever started around 2010-2012 and is causing depression. Social media and mobile phones? Maybe the Great Depression?
And *yes*, there's plenty of evidence that social media and phones do make ppl miserable, especially teenagers and young adults
So if this is true... We should be seeing this across the world, right?
No! Young adults are not committing more suicide in other countries!
Do young ppl have less access to mobile phones & social media in France? In JAPAN?!
In fact, this phenomenon is hard to find in other countries...
Except maybe in North American countries
Whatever is depressing US teenagers so much that they commit suicide more, it's something specific of the US (and maybe its neighbors?)
Indeed, young adults in the US are more prone to depression (but I can't find data on depression since 2000 for OECD countries. @MaxCRoser )
Why do US young adults commit + suicide? This paper explores this question:
• Guns unlikely
• Opioid crisis unlikely
• Surveys suggest there doesn't appear to be more bullying (but then why more depression?)
• Or suicide attempts
Maybe...
• Social media is making existing bullying more aggressive in the US? (but why not elsewhere?)
• Young ppl can more easily find lethal ways to commit suicide online? (but why not elsewhere?)
• Suburban life (but why now?)
• Culture wars?
We should worry about social media & phones, and fight their negative influence
But mixing aloneness, loneliness, and social media is failing to find the pbm
This is specifically a US young adults pbm
If we don't know their pbm, we can't solve it
Let's keep looking for answers
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I respect @BillAckman a lot but I think he's wrong on @Uber. AFAIK his bear case on robotaxis: 1. Not great for bad weather 2. Too expensive to cover peak demand 3. Less utilization because of food delivery 4. They can't disintermediate Uber
1. Not great for bad weather
This is a @Waymo driving in rain—the worst they'll ever be! They already have ~10x fewer accidents than humans. Maybe in the short term humans are going to be better in some really bad weather, but those are short-term exceptions
2. Robotaxis will be too expensive to cover peak demand
This is ptrobably true for Waymo but not @Tesla's @robotaxi, for 2 reasons:
a. Cybercab costs will be the same order of magnitude as normal ICE cars
The Model 3 costs ~$40-$45k, but the Cybercab will have 60% fewer parts: steering wheel, pedals, steering column, backseats, backdoors, side-window mirrors, rear window... Let's assume this will bring the cost down to $30-$35k
Add to that the new manufacturing process that treats Tesla's Cybercabs not as cars, but as electronics. They will be able to produce a car every 5s. This will further reduce their price
Compare that to the price of a car for Uber, which today is between $25k-$60k
Never bet against the US:
Ppl think its biggest strength is its institutions, the dollar, entrepreneurship... But one of its biggest assets is its geography 🧵
1. Size
The US is the 4th largest country. It spans an entire continent, reaches two oceans, and is big enough to be a geographic heavyweight in the world
2. The Mississippi Basin
It's the 4th largest drainage basin in the world and occupies 40% of the contiguous 48 US states, touching 32 of the US’s 50 states. 11 US states directly take their name from it.
Climate caused the US Civil War, because: 1. Slavery was the main cause of the war 2. Different crops were the main cause of slavery 3. Climate caused different crops in the North vs South
This is terribly important to understand the US today and how to heal it
🧵
1. Slavery was the main cause of the war: the Abolitionist North & the Slavery South were competing to expand westward to increase their political influence
But the North grew & expanded faster, to a point where it could force abolition on the South, which then seceded
In 1790, the Free & Slave states had the same population, and there were many more Slave States (8 vs 5), so Slave States controlled the Senate.
By the eve of the war in 1860, the North had 50% more population and 4 more states, giving them control of both the House & Senate
Moscow is one of the weirdest capitals:
• Biggest European city
• Extremely cold
• Little farmland
• To Russia's extreme west
• Not on a coast or main river
How did it create the biggest country on Earth?
It involves horse archers, human harvesting & tiny animals 🧵
The first shocking fact is that Russia is so far north it's at the edge of arable land. How can you create a capital with so little food? Why not in the middle of the most fertile area on Earth?
This far north is extremely cold
Moscow is the 3rd coldest capital in the world and by far the biggest: with 20M ppl, its metro population is 8x bigger than the 2nd biggest cold capital, Stockholm!
This map tells you how a seemingly innocent difference, like wheat vs rice eating, can have dramatic political, economic, and cultural ramifications:
🧵
The areas that harvest wheat vs rice are different. Why?
Because of climate
Rice needs heat and lots of water. Ideally, flooding the fields to also kill weeds. Rice dies with frost.
Wheat resists it well, prefers cooler temperatures, but dies when it's flooded
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."