Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 10 11 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
This Ukrainian article titled "Russians in Ukraine's south cannot cope with huge number of wounded" is useful in showing how Russia is using occupied hospital facilities to the exclusion of medical treatment of Ukrainian civilians.

RuAF CasEvac🧵

1/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…
This Reddit post has a captured Rostov-on-the-Don aerial evac-point video that is notable for the lack of medical support.

1. No intravenous fluids
2. No obvious medical people working
3. No food, just water
4. Thin/Malnourished RuAF wounded

2/
reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVi…
5. No shelter whatsoever from the sun, wind, jet blast, or rain.
6. The stated cause for the hours long delay was a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow.

3/


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What isn't visible at that Rostov-on-the-Don airport casevac point is the "seriously wounded" that make up 15% of every set of battlefield casualties.

See definition & figure below.⬇️

4/
https://t.co/MUUlqX30Jf
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While the definition of "seriously injured" has changed over time as the medical state of the art has improved.

Any Western military trained doctors, nurses or medics will tell you there aren't any "seriously wounded" in those photo clips.

5/
Rostov-on-the-Don is inside Russia.

It is the key logistical position supporting the RuAF in Donbas and by coastal barge traffic into Southern Ukraine, (150 km truck radius).⬇️

We should be seeing all sorts of medical kit here for the seriously injured, yet...nothing?!?

6/ Image
The screen captures from the article "Review of Military Casualties in Modern Conflicts -- The Re-emergence of Casualties from Armored Warfare" and the post on RuAF "leading edge conveyors" makes clear we are looking at about a 40 hour delay for...

7/
https://t.co/d9GeAt1tc6

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...battlefield casualty evacuation to occupied Ukrainian hospitals.

Only the long term convalescents crowding those occupied Ukrainian medical facilities are showing up for CasEvac to Moscow area hospitals at Rostov-on-the-Don.

8/
The statistical implications of all of this means that at a minimum, 32% of Russian battle casualties inside Ukraine lead to battle deaths.

It may be up to 5% higher from a lack of whole blood and antibiotics in the RuAF medical supply chain.

9/
And please note, these are 'battle casualties'.

Those who die in operational accidents like driving off a bridge or a helicopter crashing because it's tail fell off are in addition to that.

As are the wounded who later die of infections/septic shock, or other complications
10/
This Nov. 2005 article titled "Understanding Combat Casualty Care Statistics" from The Journal of TRAUMA Injury, Infection, and Critical Care will help you understand these numbers and their definitions.

11/11 end

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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 8
Now we know where RuAF is now shipping its fuel & ammo now that Crimean ground lines of communication (AKA bridges) have been interdicted.⬇️

A Russian logistical desperation🧵
1/
The Russians are now dependent on occupied Ukrainian civilian ISO container export facilities at Berdyansk to bring in supplies to their Army.

2/

We should be looking for a similar Russian SAM battery reinforcement for the port of Mariupol.

RuAF truck convoys from both ports are the only real option for the next month or so to maintain their current front lines in Zaporizhzhya.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Aug 7
This is a fine working example of Russian "Reflexive Control" information operations at work in the American media⬇️

1/4
I've been referencing this Timothy L. Thomas' article "Russia’s Reflexive Control Theory and the Military" as it is the seminal work on the subject of explain how Russia pollutes non-Russian info-spaces.

This is the killer 'graph from the article.

2/4

https://t.co/42Sf5khiRb
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American media outlets and DC think tank types are both extraordinarily vulnerable to such filter control efforts.

This is Timothy L. Thomas' take on how successful the Russian have been with the DC "Defense Analysts" in the nuclear arms/arms control policy making community.
3/4 Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 7
The @TheDeadDistrict X-account has a real point here about the difference between Ukrainian trenches and Russian ones.

Simply put, the Ukrainians have competent, late WW2, Soviet era trench works and the Russian Army does not.

Russian fortifications🧵
1/
https://t.co/vWNIVCqWjR

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I did this thread on July 2nd 2023 pointing out the lack of deployed barbed wire in Russian trench fighting positions.


2/
The Ukrainian trench fighting positions @TheDeadDistrict showed in his photos were very much the the two man fighting & crew served weapon positions ahead of the fighting trench - "Bracelet & Bangles" - characteristic of late WW2 field fortifications.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Aug 4
Given the spot where explosions and gunfire have been reported from.

This is likely Ukrainian boat-drones at work.

Russian Fuel Logistics 🧵
1/6
The @christogrozev account is reporting Russian social media blaming this attack on the Kerch Bridge and a tanker on Ukrainian boat-drones.

2/6

And specifically saying a coastal oil tanker shuttling from Syria to Crimea has been struck.

H/T @Maks_NAFO_FELLA & @UKikaski

3/6
https://t.co/T3MruDqX0R

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Read 8 tweets
Aug 4
This is going to be a thread about the Ukrainian counter offensive and some snarky comments about Ukraine 'making excuses like the Nazis' for the counteroffensive being slow due to vegetation.

I'll submit those people are at best ignorant of the PFM-1.
1/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PFM-1_mine
Per the wiki:

"PFM-1 is a scatterable high explosive anti-personnel landmine of Soviet and Russian production. It is also known as a Green Parrot or Butterfly Mine."

This David Hambling Forbes piece is a good place to start on its affect in Ukraine.

2/forbes.com/sites/davidham…
While Ukraine has made strides in detecting PFM-1 mines with thermal sight drones.

This 2017 technical article, that assumed GPS availability, makes clear this won't be easy on Ukraine's GPS denied battlefield.


3/ https://t.co/d4Chb1DAXZmdpi.com/2072-4292/10/1…



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Read 19 tweets
Aug 4
This is another James Dunnigan piece on Russian forced population movements of Ukrainians

Ethnic Cleansing in Ukraine
July 29, 2023

1/strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/a…
"...Russia, per its centuries-old ethnic cleansing solution to troublesome minorities, believes the easiest way to get rid of the partisans is to send all the Ukrainians to Russia and replace them with Russians. Russia calls this “filtration” but this is a war crime...

2/
...according to the Geneva Convention. In March 2023: Vladimir Putin was indicted by the ICC (International Criminal Court) for war crimes.

This all began when, having occupied portions of the Ukraine in the current war, Russia sought to find enough local Ukrainian...

3/
Read 16 tweets

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