@KerstenLahl Alleine die Vermischung der Begrifflichkeiten RF/Russland etc. deutet imho darauf, dass man versucht hat RF im Framework moderner Modelle zu sehen - und übersah, dass RF irgendwo vor 1900 als feudal/koloniales Imperium stehengeblieben ist. (Etkind) Die Lehre daraus müsste nun 2/
@KerstenLahl sein, dass man mit einer Revisionistischen Macht dieser Art nicht mit dem Ziel verhandeln kann einen persistenten Ausgleich zu finden. RF wird ein Settlement (siehe Minsk) nur Weg sehen den Gegner zu behindern um selbst weiter subkritisch zu eskalieren. Hinweis darauf scheint 3/
@KerstenLahl auch in der Entwicklung einer Europ. Polykrise durch RF zu liegen. Trotz interner und militärischer Probleme läuft dieses Projekt überraschend effizient und scheinbar entkoppelt vom Chaos.
Hier müssen wir dediziert einhegen, gerade in Hinblick auf den Informationskrieg. /end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Polycrisis & Insanity🧵
"The definition of insanity is repeating the same actions over and over again and expecting different results."
The MT article describes negotiations which not only repeat past mistakes but repeat them in the worst fashion. 1/ themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/for…
The backdrop for this article is a situation in which Russia appears to develop a polycrisis de luxe to weasel out of the mess in Ukraine.
And because no crisis worth it's name is complete without Africa & the migration threat - enter Niger, Wagner, Prigozhin & Viktor Bout! 2/
While russia is loosing ground in Ukraine it makes gains in Africa. Not Africa alone, RF is active with a footprint in the whole MENA area as destabilizing power, serial supporter of coups, brutal autocrats & terrorist movements.
What a way to expand the idea of "Russkiy Mir".
3/
❗️Important explanation from @Sasha_Etkind ❗️
"Russia" is a colonial & imperialistic entity, the "Russian Federation" is a colonial construct.
The term "Russia" is a semantic trap that limits our understanding of the Ukraine war.
🧵 1/
1. What is "Russia"?
We tend to use simple concept when referring to a state actor. "USA", "France" or "Denmark" work well in this context and seldomly limit our political understanding.
Russia is different because what counts as "Russia" is much more context dependent. 2/
From "Russia" over RF, "Novorossija" and "Russkiy mir" to the expansive concept that "Russia is where Russians are" - even in internal use the terminology is floating. Someone might start talking about "Russkij mir" and continue with the term "Russia".
"Russia" is a wild card. 3/
The arrest of #Girkin is quite pivotal. 🧵
Just a few weeks ago the authorities "protected" him from a potential bomb threat. Now, within a few hours he and his allies Kvatchkov and Gubarev are taken on by the "authorities".
So, why now & for what reason?
Is this a foreshadow? 1/
One could say that arresting Girkin after his insults to putin and the leadership is what we expect from a strong leader in power. But then, Girkin's criticism and blatant insults are not new.
Girkin is well connected. He speaks out what many "old guard" apparatchiks think.
2/
Putin was far from the all powerful leader some in the west perceived him to be. His power stemmed from a system of personal loyalties, feudal/mafia style leadership and being the ultimate arbiter of the various factions in the RF "elite".
Putins method was less suppression
3/
(or: Why the evil West can't allow to freeze the war)
A case study of failure dedicated to V.V. #Putin, Yevgeny #Prigozhin and Leonid Ivashov.
Thread 🧵🔽
/1
Here we autocrats face a conundrum:
On one hand we need a strong apparatus to benevolently suppress our people - but someone in these structures might accumulate enough power to threaten our rule.
Alas, our own henchmen, which we groomed, might form a coalition to topple us.
/3
Our troubled colleague "Vova" Putin used a well tested bouquet of tricks to keep his apparatus, the siloviki, in check:
- feudal structure handing out fiefdoms
- play autocratic chairs, few secure in their position
- being vague, people second guess all actions
- mafia style
/4
This short thread 🧵expands a bit on theology in a snarky way.
TLDR: Putin is the russians "God" - Even a god can only rule something he is informed about. This can partially explain potential weakness of the central power / Putin.
/1
So, let Putin be the all benevolent, all knowing, omnipotent leader of Russia - The mighty God, Czar, ruler, the ultima ratio of political, economical, societal and military decisions in Russia.
So why then do we see the infighting and chaos?
Theology has the answer: Theodicy!
/2
Theodicy is the attempt to explain how evil can exist when an entity has the aforementioned attributes. In Putins clerical order "evil" is roughly defined: NATO, West, liberal democracy and any threat to his rule.
And unfortunately his angels (Shoigu, Prigozhin, Girkin) fight.
/3
1. The Mindset
Russkiy Mir is not only a propaganda item. It is a cultural concept that has manifested itself in various forms in Russian history. It was a monarchic imperial idea, floated with the socialist international and as a mysticized orthodox pan slavistic concept.
There is a sense of entitlement that I encountered in my conversations that also surfaces in a condensed form on Russian propaganda TV. The notion that Russia is special, that the world owes Russia and Russians for great deeds, achievements, the culture. Russia is grand per se.