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Sparty Profile picture
Sparty
@spartyflyboy
Passionate about building resilience to defend freedom & democracy. Mixing Luhmann & deterministic chaos. Also semi Popperian particle pusher. Гопник = block
Mar 25 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
STOP BASHING POLAND!🧵

Want allies? Then don't alienate them!
Recent events led to a wave of Poland-bashing from many pro-Ukrainian accounts. This increasingly goes beyond reasonable criticism, taking the form of sweeping statements, even hostility.
1/
 We have an alliance supporting Ukraine. Unfortunately nothing is ever perfect, each country has their own political problems and struggles - including Ukraine. Some are firm allies, some prone to waiver.
But this is the only alliance we have and Russia is trying to destroy it.
2/
Mar 15 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Wir müssen Macron beim Wort nehmen🧵
Gegen Russlands eskalierendes aggressives Verhalten hat es bisher vor Allem an Abschreckung gefehlt. Macrons Rede bietet die Chance wieder glaubwürdige Abschreckung herzustellen.
Durch Zweifel & Zerreden kann diese Chance verspielt werden.
1/ Image Macrons Vortrag stellt einen Wendepunkt dar. Eine zentrale europäische Macht verknüpft offen die Frage eigener und europäischer Sicherheit mit dem Sieg der Ukraine über Russland.
Russland wird klar als Gegner bezeichnet der Frankreich hybride angreift und dort Leben gefährdet.
2/
Mar 8 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
AI & Drones? Why not use Nerds! 🧵
What seems like a "game" might become a new approach to employment of unmanned systems in the battlespace.
Instead of only using AI ,with all it's problems, future militaries might harness the power of distributed computing power:
The nerd.
1/ It isn't totally fair to compare AI with nerds (aka human intelligence). AI offers the capability to deploy deeply autonomous systems capable to operate with minimal (or without) EM signal emissions. Nerds can't do that.
So let's rethink augmented AI.
2/
 digitalreality.ieee.org/images/files/p…
Mar 2 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Spring is coming.
The state of Russia's war on Ukraine.🧵

After the fall of Avdiivka, RF pressure along the front and reports of AFU ammo shortages a climate of doubt about Ukrainian military capabilities is wide spread.
Some talk about 2024 being a year of defense ops only.
1/ Image Evaluating the situation regarding ground forces is difficult without deep knowledge about order of battle, reserves and materiel available this year.
Instead of inferring from estimates of losses there is a different indirect qualifier for RF ground force commitment.
The VKS.
2/
Feb 29 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Chancellor Scholz & the West🧵

Since Russia invaded Ukraine eyes were on Germany to take a decisive, leading role in Europe's response & stance towards Russia. Scholz yet insisted to only act in lockstep with allies.
This changed now, but why this way?
1/
 dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1… German political establishment is mostly aghast by the recent developments. Security analysts see Scholz as throwing Germany's allies under the bus. Constitutional experts characterize the Chancellor as flat out security risk, demand swift consequences.
2/
Feb 22 • 27 tweets • 6 min read
Verlieren im Geheimdienst Krieg mit Russland🧵

Während die Ukraine tapfer das russische Militär abwehrt, hinkt der Westen weit zurück im Kampf gegen Russlands Geheimdienst Angriff. Die Reaktionen sind bisher verhalten und übermäßig vorsichtig. GRU & SVR haben fast freie Hand.
1/ Image Ein zentrales Problem ist, dass die russischen Dienste weitgehend im Freiraum operieren können. Wie @KonstantinNotz feststellte mangelt es vor Allem an Abwehr. Die russischen Agenten und Dienste arbeiten nahezu risikofrei und werden nicht abgeschreckt.
2/
 merkur.de/politik/spiona…
Feb 21 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
Losing The Intelligence War With Russia🧵

While Ukraine valiantly fights the Russian military the collective West is far behind in it's defense versus Russia's intelligence onslaught. So far the response is timid, overly cautious, effectively giving GRU & SVR free reign.
1/ From: Daily Beast Arguably the most pressing issue with Russian intelligence is that they're able to continue to operate in relative sanctuary. The services, their operatives are effectively shielded from operative risks or repercussions. Accountability is rarely enforced, deterrence is absent.
2/
Feb 20 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
Scenario: A Czar Is Born🧵
Navalny, "elections" & Führer Putin.

Since Prigozhin's demise a trend to more overtly oppressive governance is noticeable in Russia.
This thread contextualizes events & change of modus operandi with a potential totalitarian turn at the "elections".
1/ Image Russian Stability Polycrisis
While war is always a challenge to system stability, in Russia we even witnessed open mutiny.
The Kremlins established system of governance previously allowed limited dissent which escalated into public fights and acid criticism on Telegram.
2/
Feb 11 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
@denistrubetskoy @AWerberger Die Veränderungen greifen gerade auch die Kritik auf, die aus den Reihen der Partner und der AFU, hier besonders Bat/Cmp Ebene, deutlich geworden ist.
Wehrgerechtigkeit, modernes (human) Ressourcen Management und Adaptionsfähigkeit. Klarere und stringentere Kommandostrukturen.
1/ @denistrubetskoy @AWerberger Es ist schon bezeichnend wenn Zelenskyy in seinen "8 Punkten" von Generälen spricht, die verschlampte Drohnen für Avdiivka erst suchen müssen.
Oder, dass Soldaten die an der Front dienen ausgebildet sein müssen.
Nach 2 Jahren Krieg zeugen die Aussagen von vergangener Trägheit.
2/
Feb 4 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Zalushny, Siyrskii & Zelenskyy🧵
Much of the recent rumor mill circles around these three names.
What at first glance looks like political drama around a human resource decision could be pointer to serious issues transforming AFU into a modern army.
1/
 Examples of problems in the AFU are well known. Many observers use the model of three different forces existing in Ukraine.
A modern one using more western doctrine and leadership.
One that is still more or less operating along old soviet ways.
Volunteer and experimental units
2/
Jan 22 • 27 tweets • 6 min read
Russia vs NATO - A Scenario🧵

Russian aggression isn't limited to Ukraine. Before the backdrop of constant threats to the Baltics and other European nations, the question when and where RF might strike again is of eminent importance.
This🧵explores an early option for Russia.
1/ Image Strategic Foresight
Much of the debate when🇷🇺can strike again centers around estimates for🇷🇺's recovery from the enormous attrition by Ukraine. As @FRHoffmann1 explains the notion of🇷🇺engaging in a prolonged large war as in Ukraine might be misleading.
2/
Jan 3 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
America, ATACMS and Democracy🧵

While Ukraine suffers from Russian atrocity several western nations prepare to conduct important elections. In the USA, and other states, democracy itself seems to be at stake.
ATACMS for Ukraine might rescue democracy.
1/
 washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/… The threat to western democracies is result of decade long Russian hybrid & information war. Russia's autocratic far right allies are on the rise, promoting culture war, end of liberal democracy and "globalism".
Add to that the backdrop of escalating international crisis/war.
2/ by Council on Foreign Relations
Jan 2 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Reasoning Peace with Russia.🧵

Ever since Russia's spree of wars started the dominant question is:
"What can be done so Russia accepts peace?"
This approach is fundamentally flawed. Russia can't be convinced or bribed - Russia has to ask for peace out of naked self interest.
1/ Image Why does "Russia" wage war?
War is a political act to achieve a set of goals. While there are many well founded opinions about Russian war goals with Ukraine, the discussion if it is "Putin's war" leads us to a fundamental question:
"Who IS 'Russia' in context of this war?"
2/
Jan 1 • 24 tweets • 6 min read
Take war to Russia in 2024!🧵

Current discussion, if Ukraine will be able to liberate her territory, mostly ignores that UA has war goals that go beyond "simply" kicking the Russians out.
Aggressive asymmetric warfare vs Russia might present a solution to achieve these goals.
1/ Image Pres. Zelenskyy emphasized, that liberating territory is before all a way to stop human suffering under Russian occupation. The Ukrainian campaign to return Russian hostages, POW and abducted children expands this goal in face of Russia creating a fait accompli in this matter.
2/
Dec 29, 2023 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
Russia faces a death spiral.🧵
And they know it.

Russian economy is running into a coffin corner with each day the war on Ukraine continues. Some observers of Russian economy and society look at RF commodity trade as rescue and forget long term cost.
1/
 Each day the war on Ukraine consumes enormous ressources. Fuels, ammo, attrited materiel. These are the direct costs of running the war.
But Russian economy is already facing mid term effects of the war. Supply issues, lack of qualified workforce, that might become persistent.
2/
Dec 22, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Europe Needs Ukraine to Win🧵

The European Project has been in trouble for a while. Initially guided by values, the idea of persistent peace in Europe, it's at risk being reduced to a marketplace.
Only if Ukraine wins the European Project will survive.
1/
 European values are Russia's enemy.
After separating from Russia's colonial domain in '91 Ukraine remained under strong RF influence. Structures of Russian corruption in economy & politics kept hold of the country.
The Euromaidan '13 was turning point.
2/
Dec 20, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
MISSING GENERAL - Help needed!🧵
Russian Col. General Leonid Ivashov seems to have gone missing - at last from the net.
Ivashov, former President of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems, is famous for his repeated criticism of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
1/ Image Also seemingly missing is the webpage of the All Russian Officers Assembly where he published his calls to resist the criminal war and for Putin to resign.
It seems General Ivashov went missing, at least online, about when Igor Girkin was arrested.
2/
 archive.is/xM8uF
Dec 20, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
A Russian Narrative Dropped. 🧵
Summary:
An increasing number of openly/covertly pro Russian actors aim to inject the idea that peace in Ukraine is only palpable for Russia if "the West" offers sanction relief and unfreezing Russian assets on top of territorial concessions.
1/ Image Backdrop:
The narrative is developed in an environment of increased uncertainty. Factors are:
- Delays of aid budgets
- Blocks by pro-RF actors (HU etc)
- AFU supply issues (arty)
- Stalemate talked into RF advance/winning attrition
- Exaggerated RF production
- Global crisis
2/
Dec 11, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Russia chickening out!🧵
Thanks to Russian propaganda and her allies in the West everybody talks about Ukraine. But let's not lose sight about the great things happening in Russia these days. After all, it's the season, people!
So what chicken doing?
1/
 A few months ago chicken prices began to rise and less chicken was available in stores. But do not question things, comrade. Food prices soar over 50% but everything is fine and stable. Best indicator for that are your wages that are frozen till 2025.
2/
Dec 7, 2023 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
Ukraine und Politischer Wille.🧵

Für die Perspektiven der Ukraine ist essentiell wie verlässlich die Zusagen ihrer Alliierten sind. Letztendlich ist vom politischen Willen abhängig wann, welche und wie viel Unterstützung ankommt.
Der Umfang der Lieferungen wirft Fragen auf.
1/ Quelle: Süddeutsche Zeitung Die EU und Deutschland, haben den Ruf bei politischen Prozessen, in Verwaltung und Umsetzung besonders träge zu sein. Gerade Infrastruktur Projekte ziehen sich oft über Jahrzehnte hin.
Doch bei ausreichendem politischen Willen zeigt sich die Leistungsfähigkeit Deutschlands.
2/ Image
Nov 28, 2023 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Ukraine can't compromise for peace!🧵

The idea to negotiate "peace" with Russia is as old as the war. Some claim Ukraine will be forced to make "painful concessions".
A military "stalemate", Russian "war economy" and waning support are often given as reasons.
It's all wrong.
1/ Image 1. "Peace" is a persistent concept.
Peace needs the reconciliation of interests and capabilities or it ends up being a prolonged ceasefire between wars. Before all it needs proper assessment of the combattants intentions.
Lack thereof is one reason the Minsk agreements failed.
2/