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Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

Jun 4, 2024

Long time Tesla hater Lora Kolodny is out with a story saying @elonmusk redirected Nvidia chips from Tesla to xAI. I can tell everyone is going to be talking about this one, so let's dig in.

The first thing to know about Lora is that she has been working closely with Tesla short sellers like my stalker Aaron Greenspan for years. She even helped spread accusations that I had child pornography when Tesla shorts were trying to smear me back in the day. Everything she writes should be taken with a huge grain of salt and she has often been wrong in the past. This time is no different.

Lora's evidence for this story is an internal Nvidia memo from December 2023 which said "Elon prioritizing X H100 GPU cluster deployment at X versus Tesla by redirecting 12k of shipping H100 GPUs originally slated for Tesla to X instead. In exchange, original X orders of 12k H100 slated for Jan and June to be redirected to Tesla"

The conclusion she draws from this is that Tesla is being ripped off at the expense of xAI. But it is already June now, so both companies have received the 12k GPUs. While she assumes that this is because he hates Tesla and wants to prioritize xAI, this is an assumption that excludes several more benign possibilities. For example, it's possible that Tesla was still setting up some of the existing H100s they received and were not ready to take delivery of more. It's possible that Tesla was under margin pressure and needed to spread out delivery over a longer time period to minimize the impact on cash flow. While many will rush to say Elon made a decision to harm Tesla we don't know all the factors that went into this decision and I'm not going to assume the worst just yet.

She then points to a memo that says their $10 billion in AI spending "conflicts with bookings and FY 2025 forecasts". But the Nvidia staffer who wrote the memo didn't realize that that $10 billion includes spending on Tesla's car inference computers as well as their own in house Dojo supercomputer.

Another point worth considering is that Tesla will use xAI language models in products like the Optimus robot and their in car voice assistant. Grok 1.5 vision looks like it could have powerful self-driving applications as well. So it is not just xAI vs Tesla — the models being produced will actually be useful to both companies.

From what I've heard, Tesla is building out training compute massively and is no longer as compute constrained as they were in the past. They have close to 40,000 H100s and are planning to expand to 85,000 by the end of the year. In addition their in house Dojo supercomputer is now in mass production and expanding rapidly.

From what I have heard from my sources at Nvidia, Tesla has ordered over 100,000 H200s from Nvidia that they will be taking delivery of over the next 12 months. Deliveries have already started.

Ahead of the vote on Musk's compensation, Tesla short sellers and their allies like Kolodny will be doing their best to make sure you hate Musk and think that he is ruining the company. The reality is that nobody except Musk could have pushed the company to deliver FSD 12.

Sadly many people will believe this story and repeat it as fact. But I have read Lora's story and see no solid evidence that Tesla isn't getting enough delivery chips because of xAI.

Tesla likely has more training compute than xAI live today, and between their large Nvidia orders and Dojo there's a good chance they could actually stay ahead of xAI. They are not slacking in building out their training compute in the slightest

Needless to stay I was not contacted for my thoughts before publication

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Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

Jan 7, 2024

Wow so you’re telling me that not only did this guy sell more EVs than any other automaker on Earth in 2023, launch 80% of payload to orbit

But he did it while on LSD, cocaine, ecstasy & ketamine? Just when you thought the guy couldn’t get more impressive

what a dumb smear job

how is this different than how he acts when he’s sober

Read 5 tweets

Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

Nov 30, 2023

Elon is right. The advertisers who pulled out of X should go fuck themselves.

This whole saga is everything wrong with this country today. We face real problems as a nation. Massive problems.

But instead of actually doing anything about it, we’re obsessing over trivialities. Celebrity gossip. Virtue signaling. I’m taking a stand against Elon Musk’s tweet! He’s so anti-semitic!

Give me a fucking break. You’re not helping anyone. You’re not making anything better. You’re just shitting on those who are actually trying. Trying to twist their words and smear them, not out of a desire to help the jewish people, but just because you don’t like him.

Instead of rebuilding America for a new century, we’re tearing each other apart.

Reject cancel culture. Let people speak. Let people say dumb shit and make mistakes without shitting your pants constantly.

And when you see companies doing this shit — caving into the woke mob, surprising free speech — stop supporting those businesses. Give them a taste of their own medicine.

If we lose our ability to speak our minds, we lose the ability to make things better.

And when Elon visits Israel — bringing more attention to an important conflict than ANY of these clueless journalists have done — they shit on him for that too.

“Oh, he just has to go because of his tweet, to win the advertisers back! Apology tour!”

Fuck the advertisers. If they were willing to do this once, they will do it again the next time Elon tweets something people get their panties in a twist.

That’s all he was saying. He didn’t go there to win those dumbasses over.

Then people are going ohhhh this was a huge mistake! He’s going to lose so much money now!

How many times have we heard this before. X is doomed! Call me crazy but I think everything will be fine. Try as they will to kill X, they have failed again and again and again.

Read 4 tweets

Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

Nov 8, 2023

A lot of people talk about the rise of Chinese EVs, particularly BYD, as they start exporting more cars around the world.

In this thread, let's go down this list of the top 20 best selling EVs in the world in September and learn about them.

Up first is my favorite, the Tesla Model Y.

Starting at $44,000 in the U.S. and RMB 263,900 in China ($36,263 USD)

This isn't just the best selling EV in the world, it's the best selling car of any kind. It's fast, it's fun, it runs FSD.

121,258 units sold in Sept. 1.46M/yr

Next up is the BYD Song. The price is about RMB 186,800 or $25,000 USD — more than $11,000 USD cheaper than the Tesla Model Y.

Read 18 tweets

Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

Jun 14, 2023

There’s going to be some major drama at Toyota’s annual shareholder meeting next week.

One proposal demands the company disclose more about it’s climate-related PR activities. Another group of shareholder activists are urging people to vote against Akio Toyoda as board chairman

two of the largest US pension funds have already voted against the election of the chairman

“There is a risk that when Toyota finally decides the time is right to make a big push into EVs, it will have lost too much ground compared to American, European, and Korean rivals, including new upstarts *cough Tesla* Shareholder support for this proposal is warranted” — ISS

Read 4 tweets

Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

Jun 11, 2023

Long time Autopilot alarmist Faiz Siddiqui has a new article out claiming that Autopilot has been involved in 736 crashes.

But Autopilot is the most widely used driving automation tech in the world. Is it really crashing more than humans? Let's do some math in this thread.

Now, this isn't just me objecting to how the data is presented as an Autopilot user. NHTSA is crystal clear about the limitations of this data in the very report WaPo is mentioning.

Summary incident report data are *NOT NORMALIZED*.

NHTSA lists many other limitations of the data, such as the fact that Tesla reports data more quickly than others and that incident reports may be unverified.

But let's focus on mileage and why it's so important for a minute.

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