Thread by @noclador

As news from Karabakh become more shrill, a short thread about what led to the standoff:

• Armenian weapon smuggling

Karabakh can be supplied by two roads, which both end in Karabakh's capital Stepanakert/Xankəndi (green):

• from Goris in Armenia via Lachin (purple)
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• from Barda in Azerbaijan via Aghdam (blue)

For the last few years the Armenians have been using the newly built Lachin road, which crosses through Azerbaijan before reaching Armenian held Karabakh, which is recognized by all nations (including by Armenia) to be part of
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Azerbaijan. For years Azerbaijan did not interfere with Armenian traffic on the Lachin road; but with the mandate of the russian "peacekeepers" running out in November 2025, the Karabakh Armenians, aided by the russian "peacekeepers", began to smuggle weapons and ammo
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into Karabakh over the Lachin road.

Initially Azerbaijan staged an "environmental protest" on the Lachin road near the city of Şuşa, with "activists", who only allowed food and fuel trucks to pass. After this farce led to the Armenians and russians using side roads to
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continue smuggling weapons into Karabakh, Azerbaijan built a border post, where the Lachin road enters Azerbaijani territory, in an attempt to put a stop to the weapon smuggling.

And this led to the current standoff: Azerbaijan now insists on inspecting every truck that
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passes through the Lachin road, while the Karabakh Armenians refuse any kind of inspection.
Now Armenian trucks are stuck at the border, because the Armenians refuse to allow Azerbaijan to inspect them, and as long as they are not inspected (like i.e. trucks at the US-Mexico
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border) Azerbaijan will not allow them to continue their drive to Karabakh.
Azerbaijan offered the Armenians to use the Aghdam road to supply Karabakh, but the Karabakh Armenians immediately blocked that road with concrete barriers, to deny anyone the use of that road.
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Now food is running low in Karabakh... not because there is a food blockade, but because the Karabakh Armenian leadership puts the smuggling of weapons and ammunition for a new war (which they would lose with catastrophic results) above the needs of the Karabakh population.
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To continue their war preparations the Karabakh leadership forces its own population to starve, so that their suffering will then push the international community to pressure Azerbaijan to allow uncontrolled traffic over the Lachin road again.
The silence of governments
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around the world tells you that they all know, what the real issue here is: Karabakh Armenians stockpiling for a new war.
Even Armenia is trying to get the Karabakh Armenians to back down... but take a guess, who is backing them and telling them to a) continue to starve
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their own population and b) continue to stockpile weapons for a new war... of course it's the russians.

moscow speculates that if there is a new war, or even risk of a new war, then the mandate of the russian "peacekeepers" will be extended for another 5 years, which would
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allow moscow to continue to meddle in Armenian and Azerbaijani affairs. And the Karabakh Armenian leadership wants this too - because as long as the russians remain in Karabakh, the Karabakh Armenians have 0 need to talk about a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.
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Ultimately there is no easy solution here... Azerbaijan can't allow the smuggling of weapons and ammo into its territory, and the Karabakh Armenian leadership is utterly delusional, as also this journalist of Armenian heritage observes:

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https://twitter.com/onewmphoto/status/1688279504429477888

Getting rid of the russian "peacekeepers" would certainly help... but moscow and the Karabakh Armenians are trying to extend their stay indefinitely.

Honestly even I don't know what to do. The Karabakh leadership is as detached from reality as the Al-Qaida leadership and
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equally cold hearted when it comes to civilian suffering...

A new war would end in a crushing Armenian defeat (and flight of 100% of Armenians from Karabakh), because russia certainly wouldn't come to the military aid of the Karabakh Armenians. Not even even Armenia would
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aid the Karabakh Armenians militarily, as this would require Armenian forces to invade Azerbaijan... a country vastly more powerful militarily, demographically, politically, and economically than Armenia. And invading a neighboring country results in crushing sanctions.
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To make a long story short: yes, there are food shortages in Karabakh now, but it is not because of "Azerbaijan genocidal" as Armenian propaganda wants you to believe. The reasons are deeper... and Karabakh Armenian leadership's war obsession is the core problem... and
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as always russia is the most nefarious actor in the whole affair.

Annoyingly most journalists, who write about Karabakh now, only write about "food shortages", and fail to mention the causes of this standoff.

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