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Here is a long thread about conventional missile fuzes. It explains why Taurus offers a qualitative edge over Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG when engaging certain targets, and why it’s one of the most advanced conventional weapons currently in the arsenals of Western states. 👇🧵1/21
A fuze is a device that detonates a munition's explosive material under specified conditions. In other words, the fuze makes sure that your payload explodes when & where you want it to. Not sooner, not later. As such, it is a critical part of the missile’s warhead system. 2/21
Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and Taurus are cruise missiles primarily designed to engage hardened and buried targets. To do so, they are equipped with a powerful multi-effect warhead consisting of a primary shaped charge and a secondary follow through bomb (FTB) or penetrator. 3/21
Depending on what type of target you are engaging, you may want the follow through bomb not only to penetrate the engaged structure as deep as possible before exploding, but to explode at a very specific depth or moment to maximize the damage caused. 4/21
For example, when engaging a multi-story bunker, you might want the follow through bomb to explode at a certain level. When engaging a bridge, you may want the FTB to penetrate the first layer (the bridge deck) and only detonate in the second layer (the pillar). 5/21
How do you do this? This is where the fuze comes in. Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG’s BROACH warhead system uses the so-called Multi-Application Fuze Initiation System (MAFIS), which you also find in several American weapon systems, such as the AGM-154 JSOW gliding bomb. 6/21
MAFIS is a more or less “traditional” time fuze where the delay of the follow through bomb’s ignition can be manually set in steps from 0-240 milliseconds. I.e., the penetrator is ignited after a predetermined amount of time following the “shock” of the initial penetration. 7/21
The problem with this fuze design is that you have to estimate the delay correctly. For example, if I overestimate the time it will take the follow through bomb to penetrate the layer(s), it will explode too late. If I underestimate the time, it will explode too early. 8/21
This likely happened when Ukraine used Storm Shadow for the first time in late June to engage the Chonhar bridge. The missile managed to penetrate the bridge deck effortlessly but the pillar remained rather untouched, likely because the follow through bomb ignited too early. 9/21
Engaging bridges with time fuzed bombs is especially problematic, given that modern bridge decks are rarely even. Time of penetration will depend on whether the FTB hits a point under which there is only the bridge deck, a girder/beam, or the deck & one side of a girder. 10/21
How can we improve on this less accurate time fuze design? One way would be to count the layers and “void spaces” the FTB penetrates, in order to time the ignition. In doing so, we no longer rely on an estimated penetration time, which is bound to be inaccurate. 11/21
Coincidentally, this is exactly what the fuze of Taurus’ MEPHISTO warhead system does. Taurus’ warhead is equipped with a “void sensing and layer counting” fuze called PIMPF (Programmable Intelligent Multi-Purpose Fuze). 12/21
This fuze counts the layers and void spaces the follow through bomb penetrates to ignite the payload at exactly the right moment. By measuring the speed of deceleration, PIMPF can also recognize different types of layers (concrete, rock, soil, etc.). 13/21
This fuze design also offers benefits when engaging bridges. Rather than relying on an estimated time of penetrating the bridge's first layer (the bridge deck), you can tell the fuze to ignite the follow through bomb once it penetrates the second layer (the pillar). 14/21
In doing so, you not only damage the deck of the bridge, but you can also damage its foundations. One missile equipped with a void sensing & layer counting fuze can therefore cause the damage that previously could only be achieved with two or more accurately dropped bombs. 15/21
I stand by what I said in the past. 90% of why 🇺🇦 needs Taurus is to prevent its long-range strike arsenal from running low. However, Taurus also provides a qualitative edge. If 🇺🇦 receives Taurus, 🇷🇺 bridges will be in an even more precarious spot (👀Kerch bridge). 16/21
This fuze design is also really useful in anti-ship missiles, because you can guarantee ignition of the warhead after the ship’s hulls have been penetrated. Kongsberg’s NSM, which is currently scoring one contract after another, uses the same PIMPF fuze as Taurus. 17/21
Taurus’ advanced fuze system is what renders the cruise missile a state-of-the-art weapon system. While newer cruise missiles, such as JASSM, are likely stealthier due to incorporating more and better low-observability features, Taurus’ warhead design does not lag behind. 18/21
In fact, TDW (the Bavarian/German company manufacturing PIMPF) cooperated with American companies to adapt PIMPF for American purposes. The resulting and adapted fuze is now used in several American weapon systems, including JASSM (FMU-156/B). 19/21
PIMPF is also one of the reasons why South Korea is relying on the Taurus cruise missile as one of its key weapon systems in its "Kill Chain" missile strike system which aims at deterring South Korea's nuclear-armed neighbor by threatening conventional counterforce strikes. 20/21
As it turns out, Oktoberfest is only the second best thing to have come out of Bavaria, after TDW’s PIMPF. Deliver Taurus without targeting restrictions and see Kerch Bridge (and other bridges) go up in flames. #FreeTarus /END
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Briefly on a potential Israeli attack against Iran's nuclear infrastructure:
My colleague and supervisor, @Malfrid_BH, has written an excellent article on Israel's preventive attacks against Iraq's nuclear infrastructure in the 1980s, which remains as relevant as ever.
1/6
The article reexamines Israel's 1981 strike on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor. While it delayed Iraq’s nuclear ambitions, the strike also pushed Iraq to pursue a more covert and determined nuclear weapons program in the years following.
2/6
After the attack, Iraq shifted its strategy, dispersing facilities and focusing on secret, military-oriented nuclear development. The attack also increased Iraq's determination, driven by national pride, the desire for a security deterrent, and fear of future strikes.
3/6
On September 25, the Kremlin announced plans to revise its nuclear doctrine, expanding the conditions for nuclear use.
This raises a critical question: How credible is this latest nuclear threat, and how credible are Russian nuclear threats in general?
Short thread 🧵👇:
1/10
I categorize 🇷🇺 nuclear threats into four types: cheap talk, state-sanctioned rhetoric, preparations for limited nuclear use, and preparations for large-scale nuclear use. Each varies in intensity & credibility.
We have observed the first two types, but not the latter two.
2/10
Cheap talk includes non-official rhetoric like TV discussions by excentric talkshow guests about nuking Western cities.
These discussions do not reflect official policy & ignore the immense costs of nuclear use to Russia, making them non-credible and generally ignorable.
A few people asked if all 22 S-300/S-400 sites around Moscow are still active or if some systems have been removed and redeployed, likely closer to Ukraine.
In other words, does Moscow's air defense network underperform because it no longer exists?
A short thread. 1/8
First, @AS_22im is the true expert on tracking S-300/S-400 sites. I recommend you follow him.
My TL;DR: Satellite imagery indicates that most air defense sites around Moscow remain intact, although some have lost a few launchers, while other sites are completely gone.
2/8
A good example of an air defense site that remains fully in-tact is the one near Novovorino (56.1676, 37.82313).
The image on the left is from June 2019, the one on the right from May 2024. The only difference is that the launchers are erected, suggesting higher readiness.
Ukraine's Sapsan SRBM is one of three primary missile projects that 🇺🇦 is working on. The other two are the Neptune ASCM (in production) and the Korshun LACM (in development).
Hrim-2 is a shorter-range variant intended for export and is largely identical with the Sapsan.
1/5
The missile missile follows other SRBMs, like the Russian 9M723 Iskander-M and the South Korean Hyunmoo-2, in form and function.
The missile is powered by solid fuel & has a claimed range of 400-500 km, though reports have stated that this may be extended to 700 km or more.
2/5
Sapsan reportedly has a payload capacity of 480 kg. The tapered warhead seen in the picture of the Hrim-2 is well-suited for a penetrator warhead, providing the missile with significant hard-target kill capability — something currently lacking in Ukraine's missile arsenal.
3/5
Taurus uses a 'smart' fuse that counts the layers and void spaces the warhead penetrates, making sure the warhead explodes at precisely the right moment, rather than relying on a set timer.
With the AGM-158A JASSM now emerging as a viable option for Ukraine, it's a good opportunity to explore the basic capability profile and main advantages of JASSM compared to ATACMS, Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, and Taurus. 🧵👇
1/15
The AGM-158A JASSM is, broadly speaking, the American counterpart to the German-Swedish Taurus KEPD-350 & the British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG.
Due to its significant export success, it's increasingly becoming the standard land-attack cruise missile in Western arsenals. 2/15
The AGM-158A JASSM entered service in 2003. It has an unclassified range of 370 km and carries a 450 kg (1,000 lb) penetrator warhead.
JASSM stands out for its low-observability fuselage, providing a smaller radar cross-section than other cruise missiles in its class.