Brandon Dietz Profile picture
Aug 14, 2023 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
$DHR was the first company I came across that had a “business system” – a structured operating framework used to drive continuous growth & improvement

Many other companies have similar systems in place

Often these have proved to be exceptional businesses

Here’s 10 I've found Image
First up is Fortive $FTV

$DHR's framework unsurprisingly extended to its spun-off industrial business, which has a similar system – the “Fortive Business System”
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Novanta $NOVT – a ~10x bagger since 2016 – leverages its Novanta Growth System

$NOVT is a mfg of a wide suite of high precision lasers, sensors, robotics, motion control & other subsystem components used in advanced industrial & medical product applications Image
Lincoln Electric $LECO – a global leader in arc welding equipment, utilizes its six-spoke LBS – Lincoln Business System Image
Atkore $ATKR – another nearly ~10x bagger since 2016, utilizes its Atkore Business System

$ATKR is a mfg of electrical conduit, fittings, cables and infrastructure, safety and security products which has more than doubled its EBITDA margins since 2016 Image
Analytical test instrument, automation and motion control manufacturer AMETEK $AME has its "AMETEK Growth Model" system Image
Nordson $NDSN, an equipt mfg for industrial adhesives, sealants & coatings, utilizes its NBS Next Growth Framework Image
Food processing & airport machine manufacturer John Bean Technologies $JBT Image
Open Text $OTEX – one of Canada’s largest software companies Image
SPX Technologies $SPXC – has its “SPX Business Value Model”

$SPXC is a leading supplier of HVAC & detection & measurement products and technologies Image
Spectris PLC $SXS.LN Business System Image

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More from @EquiCompound

Dec 1, 2023
Investors in $FND should keep close tabs on store openings…

Due to a flurry of openings so far this qtr (+8), $FND is now at +25 new stores YTD vs. 2023 guidance for +32 new stores Image
Recall - $FND exited Q3 at +17 new stores, and has opened +8 additional stores since

+4 in October & +4 in November

$FND cadence needs to step up to another +7 new stores this month to reach FY guidance (+32)
This is a pretty formidable target, but not quite unprecedented - $FND succesfully opened +6 new stores in April & November last year Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 28, 2023
Stuffed in the footnotes of their 10-K’s, some may not know that $HD & $LOW actually report their flooring department sales annually…

While their fiscal yr ends do lag $FND by a month, we can still derive good insights from their results

A few highlights… Image
$FND has massively outperformed $HD & $LOW since 2013…

Using 2013 as a base, $FND sales are up a cumulative +861%, around ~14x $HD (+62%) and $LOW's (+58%) flooring department growth
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The bulk of $FND’s outperformance is due to new store growth, as $FND's store base is up nearly 5x from '13 (39) to '22 (191)

Even still, looking at total same store sales growth since '13, $FND's +206% comp growth crushed $HD (+62%) & $LOW (+58%), with nearly ~4x faster growth
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Read 7 tweets
Aug 1, 2023
$TREX is up +7% today on Q2 results which showed surprising resilience…in contrast to other outdoor living category players like $POOL...

$TREX's better than expected results have a positive read through for names like $FND $SITE $HD & $LOW

My key notes... Image
$TREX saw revenues decline just -5% (adj), well ahead of street & prior guidance for a -15-16% (adj) decline

Key driver was more resilient consumer demand for composite decking as $TREX saw +MSD growth in channel sell through, leading to higher channel sell in for $TREX Image
Q2 results are also a notable improvement vs. Q1 which saw a -MSD decline in sell through & a -27% decline in $TREX revenues
Read 17 tweets
Jul 31, 2023
$MHK Q2 earnings had some important read through for $FND $HD $LOW & peers

While last qtr mgmt had encouraging comments around a potential bottom in flooring, this qtr mgmt noted they still have yet to see a trough form but remain "hopeful" volumes are near a bottom

Some notes Image
Investors in $FND should keep close tabs on $MHK as it is…

1) the largest flooring manufacturer (~21% share)
2) $MHK's NA Flooring y/y results have very high correlation (~90%) with $FND total sales and SSS comp sales

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While $MHK total sales posted a similar decline to last qtr. (Q2 -6.4% vs. Q1 -6.9%), NA Flooring softened a bit further, going from down -11.1% in Q1 to a -12.1% this qtr.

Unlike last qtr., further deceleration was despite much easier comps (10.6% to 1.7%)…
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Read 11 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
If you own $FND, or home improvement names like $HD or $LOW, Floor Covering Weekly is an excellent resource for industry data on the flooring industry

FCW recently put out its 2023 Top 50 Retailers report which had some great data points

Some key notes

floorcoveringweekly.com/main/research Image
First, the report title is a bit of a misnomer...

FCW reports est. sales & locations for the top 50, but also data on other retailer types – product specialists, direct sellers, home centers, etc

All in ~78 of the largest flooring retailers are covered Image
Takeaways…

$FND remains the 3rd largest retailer

While still ~1/2 $HD in size, $FND is within striking distance of eclipsing $LOW who is just ~15% larger

$FND is likely to surpass $LOW in ’24 based on ’23 guidance (+10%) Image
Read 14 tweets
Jun 8, 2023
If you own $HD $LOW $FND or other home improvement & housing linked names like $POOL or $SITE, Zonda is a great resource for industry data

Zonda recently hosted a webinar that had some very interesting data points

Some key notes

zondahome.com/building-produ… Image
KPI’s like housing starts, home prices, home equity & mortgage rates are seen as classic primary drivers of demand for the industry & names like $HD, $LOW & $FND

Zonda noted real personal income actually has the highest correlation to changes in home improvement spending though Image
Due to inflation outstripping wages, real personal income has been in decline y/y now for ~14 mos since 3/22

Combined with moderating home prices & increased rates, trends typically would imply a -15-20% decline in remodeling spend based on historic periods, per Zonda’s analysis Image
Read 22 tweets

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