$DHR was the first company I came across that had a “business system” – a structured operating framework used to drive continuous growth & improvement
Many other companies have similar systems in place
Often these have proved to be exceptional businesses
Here’s 10 I've found
First up is Fortive $FTV
$DHR's framework unsurprisingly extended to its spun-off industrial business, which has a similar system – the “Fortive Business System”
Novanta $NOVT – a ~10x bagger since 2016 – leverages its Novanta Growth System
$NOVT is a mfg of a wide suite of high precision lasers, sensors, robotics, motion control & other subsystem components used in advanced industrial & medical product applications
Lincoln Electric $LECO – a global leader in arc welding equipment, utilizes its six-spoke LBS – Lincoln Business System
Atkore $ATKR – another nearly ~10x bagger since 2016, utilizes its Atkore Business System
$ATKR is a mfg of electrical conduit, fittings, cables and infrastructure, safety and security products which has more than doubled its EBITDA margins since 2016
Analytical test instrument, automation and motion control manufacturer AMETEK $AME has its "AMETEK Growth Model" system
Nordson $NDSN, an equipt mfg for industrial adhesives, sealants & coatings, utilizes its NBS Next Growth Framework
Food processing & airport machine manufacturer John Bean Technologies $JBT
Open Text $OTEX – one of Canada’s largest software companies
SPX Technologies $SPXC – has its “SPX Business Value Model”
$SPXC is a leading supplier of HVAC & detection & measurement products and technologies
Spectris PLC $SXS.LN Business System
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
$TREX is up +7% today on Q2 results which showed surprising resilience…in contrast to other outdoor living category players like $POOL...
$TREX's better than expected results have a positive read through for names like $FND $SITE $HD & $LOW
My key notes...
$TREX saw revenues decline just -5% (adj), well ahead of street & prior guidance for a -15-16% (adj) decline
Key driver was more resilient consumer demand for composite decking as $TREX saw +MSD growth in channel sell through, leading to higher channel sell in for $TREX
Q2 results are also a notable improvement vs. Q1 which saw a -MSD decline in sell through & a -27% decline in $TREX revenues
$MHK Q2 earnings had some important read through for $FND $HD $LOW & peers
While last qtr mgmt had encouraging comments around a potential bottom in flooring, this qtr mgmt noted they still have yet to see a trough form but remain "hopeful" volumes are near a bottom
Some notes
Investors in $FND should keep close tabs on $MHK as it is…
1) the largest flooring manufacturer (~21% share) 2) $MHK's NA Flooring y/y results have very high correlation (~90%) with $FND total sales and SSS comp sales
While $MHK total sales posted a similar decline to last qtr. (Q2 -6.4% vs. Q1 -6.9%), NA Flooring softened a bit further, going from down -11.1% in Q1 to a -12.1% this qtr.
Unlike last qtr., further deceleration was despite much easier comps (10.6% to 1.7%)…
KPI’s like housing starts, home prices, home equity & mortgage rates are seen as classic primary drivers of demand for the industry & names like $HD, $LOW & $FND
Zonda noted real personal income actually has the highest correlation to changes in home improvement spending though
Due to inflation outstripping wages, real personal income has been in decline y/y now for ~14 mos since 3/22
Combined with moderating home prices & increased rates, trends typically would imply a -15-20% decline in remodeling spend based on historic periods, per Zonda’s analysis
While small, nice to see $FND out after the close yesterday with a tuck-in acquisition for the Spartan side of its commercial business – acquiring Salesmaster Flooring Solutions
Salesmaster augments Spartans Northeastern footprint by adding presence in NYC & New England markets
Per $FND's investor day last yr., NYC in particular was an area Spartan really lacked meaningful sales rep coverage
Salesmaster helps fill in key coverage for one of the largest commercial flooring MSA’s in the country
Salesmaster, per its website, has ~24 sales reps, a sizable boost to Spartan’s ~65 reps (+37%)
When Spartan was first acquired, their reps had around ~$2mln/rep in sales productivity
If we use this, it would imply Salesmaster has around ~$48mln in revenue
Composite decking made by companies like $TREX & $AZEK still only comprises ~24% of total decking used (in linear ft) despite a vastly superior value proposition vs. wood
Large secular growth opportunity long term as an increasing number of decks built convert to composites
Both $TREX & $AZEK see ~50-75% share possible long term, providing ~2-3x industry upside
this is before other growth factors that further add to the industries growth opportunity
(i.e. total R&R growth, total decks built, intl expansion, price increases, etc.)
Given $TREX and $AZEK's attractive duopoly, commanding combined ~80% share, nearly all the industries incremental growth should accrue to them