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Emil Kirkegaard Profile picture
@KirkegaardEmil
Aug 14, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Private market fans are usually a fan of private education. The trouble is that educational outcomes are mostly just genetics, so there isn't much room for improvement. One way to study this is to look at school voucher randomized trials.

This meta-analysis shows that they don't do anything for reading or math ability in the West. The results for non-Western countries are larger, but not very trustworthy due to rampant scientific misconduct in those countries. Shrug tier.

Private education probably preferable on other grounds, but not for actual learning outcomes.

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The Participant Effects of Private School Vouchers Across the Globe: A Meta-Analytic and Systematic Review

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Reminders about rampant scientific dishonesty outside the West.

emilkirkegaard.com/p/scientific-m…
Randomized trials from outside the West very often have fraudulent or impossible data.

…-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

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More from @KirkegaardEmil

Emil Kirkegaard Profile picture
May 5
Using public data on first names, one can figure out how fast the population replacement is happening in France despite the ban on informative statistics. Selected results. Image
As elsewhere, the foreign born are clustered in cities. Image
Foreign born is a decent proxy for where the Muslims and Africans are having children. Image
Read 10 tweets
Emil Kirkegaard Profile picture
Apr 27
In economics of economic growth, it is often seen that countries have catch-up growth, called the advantage of backwardness. We can see this in OECD using GDPpcppp numbers. Image
However, looking at the world at large for the same period (2000-present), the picture is not so clear. R2 dropped from 52% to 9%. Looking at the plot, most of the dots that didn't grow as expected are Africans. It's another example of OECD fallacy, one can get substantially wrong ideas about how the world works by only looking at a subset of mostly European, above average countries.Image
We can see the role of national intelligence here. A simple way is just splitting the data into some groups. Higher IQ countries show much stronger convergence, and the low IQ countries grow quite slowly. This is essentially the story of how Asian tigers had strong economic growth starting poor, including China.Image
Read 4 tweets
Emil Kirkegaard Profile picture
Apr 27
Who does hate speech law protect? Well, in Denmark the prosecutor's office has an overview, a summary of every case since 2001 or so. The targets of the utterances that led to guilty verdicts are shown below.

Thus, only 1 case of 142 protected Danes, and it was kinda incidental because the guy was insulting Danes and Jews combined, apparently because he was angry about Gaza getting rekt by Israel.

I expect results would be similar for other western countries. These laws are pernicious, only protect minorities, despite ostensibly being neutrally formulated. You can basically smear Danes in Denmark as much as you want as long as you don't do it because they are gay.Image
Case summaries. Many of them are quite funny.

vidensbasen.anklagemyndigheden.dk/h/6dfa19d8-18c…
The above counts done by AI, but I did it by hand as well and my results were materially the same.
Read 5 tweets
Emil Kirkegaard Profile picture
Mar 30
Our new meta-analysis of American race gaps in IQ/intelligence is out! The main results didn't change that much, with 2 exceptions: Image
First, there appears to be reverse publication bias for Black IQs, smaller studies find _larger_ values. This is a prediction from leftism bias model, since social scientists hack in the preferred direction, which is usually positive, but sometimes negative. Adjusting for this gives a Black IQ estimate 82 instead of 85.Image
Image
The formal meta-analysis models did not find any changes over time, but if one looks at the plot, there is some trend, p > 5%. Image
Read 5 tweets
Emil Kirkegaard Profile picture
Dec 10, 2025
Happy to release our newest and largest admixture project. 🧵 Thread with the main findings. Image
First, we compiled data from 100s of sources to estimate genetic ancestry for over 400 units in the Americas. These are countries and subnational divisions of the larger countries, such as US states, Canadian provinces, various Caribbean islands. Results can be seen in these 4 maps.

It was a real pain in the ass to merge the spatial data to produce the maps!Image
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Next up, we gathered cognitive ability data from international datasets, and various regional and subnational scholastic tests, and any other source of standardized testing we could find. These were then converted to British international norms (Greenwich mean IQ) as best we could. It gives this map.Image
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Read 12 tweets
Emil Kirkegaard Profile picture
Sep 17, 2025
This post is going viral, so I decided to dig into the question of why homosexual relationships dissolve more frequently, and especially lesbians. Image
This is the original figure from the study. This shows us that formal unions are much more stable, not so surprisingly. Note the lack of error bars. Image
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The gay stability finding is in fact non-significant and they for some reason plotted models 2 and 5 instead of 3 and 6. Image
Read 10 tweets

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