Thread by @leonidvolkov

OK, folks, now I have to ask for your full attention, please.
It will be a long thread, but I'm 100% sure it is very important and you'll learn a lot about the war, about Russia, Ukraine and Europe, about Putin and his plans.
1/14

It's all about the data, so it'll require some patience to do the analysis, but it's worth it.
Let me start with the teaser.
Who has the best chances to become France's next president? Marine Le Pen?
If Putin would be eligible to run in France, he could compete!
2/14

Where does this data come from?
Why is it trustworthy?
Since 2013 @ACF_Int has a public opinion department. We conduct monthly public opinion polls and have a reputation as the best independent pollster in Russia.
Last month we decided to conduct a survey outside of Russia.
3/14

Why?
Because we are planning a massive international anti-Putin protest on August 20th (the anniversary of the assassination attempt on Alexei @navalny), and we wanted to find out if its message would resonate in the two largest EU countries, Germany and France.
4/14

So we asked a few questions and were shocked by what we learned. This is what I want to share with you today.

In both Germany and France, Putin's approval rating is about the same, as is his disapproval. Frankly, I doubt that Scholz and Macron are doing that well.
5/14

OK, maybe something is wrong with our survey? This is the first time we're doing this in Europe, maybe we messed up with random sampling?
We are based in Lithuania and we know the political situation here. So we asked the same question in Lithuania — for calibration purposes
6/14

Good news 1: Putin rather shouldn't show up in Lithuania.
Good news 2: it looks like our sampling works well.
Bad news: well, this means things are really going in a wrong direction in Germany and France.
7/14

Compare the previous slide with this one (the same question was asked in Germany). The difference is striking to say the least:
8/14

We also asked about the rally itself.
The difference is perhaps even more striking. While 76% of Lithuanians are ready to call Putin a murderer, only a third of Western Europeans agree with them.
9/14

But that's not all the bad news I have for you today.
Watch these slides and you will see how successful Putin is in spreading his lies and conspiracy theories in Western Europe.
Who started the war? The answer of the majority is the Americans, NATO, Ukraine itself...
10/14

The only good thing I can see from the above slides is that Putin's favorite narrative that the war is "the Russians' war, not Putin's war" has failed, despite the Kremlin's efforts.
Not only in the West, Lithuania also knows the difference between Putin and Russia.
11/14

Putin's strategy is to wait.
He is patient. He has tons of money. He invests heavily in spreading conspiracy and disinformation. He hopes to flip public opinion in Europe undermining his support for Ukraine.
And, as you have seen, he has reason to believe in his strategy.
12/14

Okay, what could be done?
Face the truth.
Recognize the problem.

Do something to counter Putin's operations in Europe: Follow the money.
Check out his agents of influence and useful idiots - they are not Russians, by the way, but citizens of European countries.
13/14

Last but not least, join us on August 20 for the international "Putin is a killer" rallies.
I hope the data above has convinced you of the importance of calling Putin a killer in Europe and doing it very loudly.
14/14

putin-killer.com

15/14
Upd.: I see there are questions about sample sizes and methodology. These are web-based surveys. To construct samples, we use gender and age quotas.
Before doing this in Europe, we tested this technique in Turkey and the results were very good:

https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1660658840654708737