Thread by @ThreshedThought

Time for another brief update as to what has happened in the last two weeks in Ukraine.

That image by the way is from a thread months ago - but the basic strategy hasn’t changed.

That’s the mark of a good strategy - when it doesn’t change every 10 minutes and when resources are lined up behind what you hope to achieve.

(Take notes Russia, please)

Here is the last thread which is a round up of the counteroffensive (I prefer offensive as the Ukrainians have the momentum at the moment).

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1685644057739935744

So what is the Ukrainian strategy?

It’s actually very simple.

All of those blue arrows are axes of Ukrainian assaults.

The aim is to keep the Russians spread thin, and unable to reinforce.

And it’s working.

The Russians appear to have run out of a reserve, and are now moving units around BETWEEN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE FRONT LINE.

This is *VERY* bad news for them.

The second thing about this strategy is it means the Ukrainians can remain balanced between the various axes, and it can choose which one it wants to advance on, when it becomes obvious which one is advantageous.

The key axes being the two middle ones running south towards the Sea of Azov - as we know this enables the Ukrainians to cut the Russian forces in two - a major strategic victory.

The other fronts are very useful as they keep the Russians pinned down. In Bahkmut for instance - the Russians are never going to pull out of Bahkmut after they lost tens of thousands of soldiers there and told everyone it was utterly vital

Narrator: Bahkmut was not vital.

And now - over the last week the Ukrainians have established another bridgehead over the River Dnipro near Kherson (see the double tailed arrow).

So now there are two bridgeheads opposite Kherson:

Near Oleshky
Near Kozachi Laheri

Now these bridgeheads are important for the obvious reason (they give the Russians more to think about, and give the Ukrainians more options).

But they also told us something about the Russians - they are losing the ability to do counter battery fire against the Ukrainians.

Basically when the first bridgehead was established it came under sustained Russian artillery fire. Gradually the Ukrainians have destroyed that artillery - and Russian artillery right along the front (Russian arty has been destroyed at twice the rate over the last couple of months)

The Russians are finding it very hard to provide effective artillery fire which coupled with a lack of reserves is not a good look.

This is what the Ukrainians have been aiming for, and makes me think that things are going to start moving again in the next month or so.

For me though - another key front has opened up.

For ages I have been warning about the Sahel - this is totally off everyone’s radar but actually represents an equal strategic threat to Europe.

Niger was just the latest in a long series of developments in the region.

I will try and pull together a Sahel thread in the next few days.

If you enjoy these threads, you may enjoy my book which explains all of these topics in much more detail, but in a readable way.

It’s called…

How to Fight a War

amzn.eu/d/77hhuMC