Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Aug 18, 2023 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Ukrainian troops I spoke to say that russia's Lancet kamikaze drones are currently the biggest problem they face on the battlefield... and that they have no solution to the problem yet.

First: No (!) NATO army has a solution to this problem, as all NATO armies lack a system
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like i.e. the Skyranger capable to shoot down kamikaze drones... and the ridiculously low numbers of systems being ordered aren't gonna do any good.

If NATO militaries would have taken the drone threat serious, 60+ Skyranger would come of the production lines monthly now.
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Only the US Army has gone on an emergency shopping spree to buy Stryker M-SHORAD vehicles, but 12x batteries of 12x vehicles is far too little.

So how can we help Ukraine? There are four ways:

1) Taurus
2) Harop
3) 🚀tech transfer
4) get off our asses and start building 60+
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Skyranger a month. As 4 isn't gonna happen... let's look at the other three solutions.

Taurus is a German air-launched cruise missile with a range of 500+ km. Lancet drones have to be trucked to the front, which means that destroying the russian lines of communication, like
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the Kerch bridge, will result in less and less Lancets reaching the front. Naturally also less and less ammo, fuel, and other materiel will reach the front - so Taurus deliveries are a MUST. Right now Ukraine uses British/French Storm Shadows/SCALP EG cruise missiles for this
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task, but the more sophisticated penetrator warhead of the Taurus (being loaded into the missile in this photo) and its extended range would give Ukraine the ability to strike russian depots and bridges more efficiently and much further away.

Still, a much better solution
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would be to finally deliver IAI Harop kamikaze drones to Ukraine. The Lancet is technologically trash - cheap optics, 50km range, 1x hour loitering time, small warhead... while the IAI Harop is a beast: 200km range, 6+ hour loitering time, 5x heavier warhead than the Lancet.
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Harops won't stop all Lancet strikes, but they will help to devastate russian vehicles all along the front. And if nothing can drive near the front, it will be difficult for the russian to bring up the Lancets and their launch catapults... but of course Harops will also
8/n
exterminate all other russian vehicles. They are just that good. If you don't have a NATO-style airforce, 1,000s of Harops can be the decisive factor in a war, as Armenia had to experience in the lost 2020 Karabakh war.

That Israel still refuses to

9/n
transfer Harop drones to Ukraine is a scandal and disgusting and vile!

Taurus and Harop would alleviate the Lancet problem... but the real cure is to attack and annihilate russia's Lancet production lines, which is EXACTLY what NATO would do: tomahawk the Lancets out of
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existence with half a dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Ukraine doesn't have cruise missiles with the necessary range (yet) and the US is not willing to transfer a missile that can strike targets 1600+ km (1000+ miles) deep inside russia... but as time is of the essence, the
11/n
transfer of off-the-shelf missile parts for a Ukrainian designed and built cruise missile would be the ideal solution to give Ukraine the ability to strike the Lancet factories ASAP.
A Western rocket engine, a guidance section, etc. paired with a Ukrainian warhead and hull,
12/n Image
and soon Ukraine would be able to eliminate the Lancet factories once and for all.
All these options aren't ideal: Taurus and Harop are ready to go, but would only alleviate the problem; a Ukrainian cruise missile would solve it, but would take time to become operational...
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The reason we're here is because the West hasn't bothered developing and producing counter-drone systems, after the 2020 Karabakh war showed the dangers of drone swarms, and we're here because the West is only reacting to developments on the battlefield in Ukraine, instead
14/n
of actively preparing for things that will happen - like renewed massive attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure this winter, for which the West is neither preparing the needed air defense systems, nor the spare parts to repair the damaged heating and electricity systems, nor
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helping Ukraine establish deterrence by helping Ukraine produce its own long range cruise missiles to strike at russian electricity and heating plants.

In short: Ukrainians are fighting for us, but politicians in "old Europe" and the White House, still haven't grasped the
16/n
severity of the situation and are dropping the ball on most of pressing issues... especially on increasing military production in Europe and helping Ukraine produce the weapons it needs to destroy russian production facilities for drones and missiles.

17/end

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More from @noclador

Apr 25
On 2 April 1982 Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands.
3 days (!) later a 🇬🇧 Royal Navy task force left the UK to retake the islands.
That task force included: 2× aircraft carriers, 8× destroyers, 16× frigates, 6× attack submarines... a fleet bigger than today's Royal Navy.
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22 Royal Fleet Auxiliary ships provided logistic support... in total 127 ships sailed, and the Royal Navy still (!!) had enough destroyers, frigates, submarines to fulfil its NATO obligations.
It was an awesome display of military power, professionalism, courage and grit.
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On 28 February 2026, after weeks of tension, the Iran War began... and even though the UK had been asked by the US for bases weeks earlier, the Royal Navy was caught wholly unprepared... and then it took the Royal Navy 10 days (!) to get 1× destroyer out of port, which after
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Read 8 tweets
Mar 17
To give you an idea, why European militaries prefer US-made weapons to European-made weapons:

Europe militaries urgently need a ground launched cruise missile capability... the US already had such a (nuclear) capability in 1983, then dismantled all of its BGM-109G Gryphon
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ground launched cruise missiles after signing of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
russia of course broke this treaty after putin came to power and after 15 years of ignoring russia lying about it Trump finally ordered to withdraw from the treaty in August 2019.
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Just 16 days after withdrawing from the treaty the US Army began to test launch Tomahawk cruise missiles form land (pic) and in June 2023 (less than 4 years later) the US Army formed the first battery equipped with the Typhon missile system.
And as Raytheon has a production
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Read 10 tweets
Mar 8
These are the 🇬🇧 UK's HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carriers.

First, as you can see in this picture, only one actually carries aircraft. The UK barely had enough money to buy the F-35B for one. For the other the Blairites expected the US Marine Corps
1/9 Image
to provide the required aircraft, because the two carriers were bought so the Royal Navy could fight alongside the US Navy against China in the Pacific.

But the US does NOT want the British carriers anywhere near its carrier strike groups, because the UK carriers would slow
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down a US carrier strike groups, as the UK did not have the money for nuclear propulsion.
And as the UK doesn't have the money for the ships that make up a carrier strike group (destroyers, frigates, submarines) the UK expected the US Navy to detach some of its destroyers and
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Read 9 tweets
Mar 8
🇬🇧 decline: Only one SSN is operational, three are no longer fit for service and got no crews. One carrier has no air wing and has been sent to rust away. The other carrier only has an air wing when the RAF cedes a third of its fighters. Only 1 destroyer is operational. The
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frigates are falling apart. New Type 31 frigates won't get Mark 41 VLS or bow Sonar. The RAF took 48 of its Eurofighters apart, because it got no money for spares. The army has just 14 155mm howitzers. The Ajax vehicle is injuring the troops it carries. The Warrior IFVs are
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outdated and falling apart. They amphibious ships are not deployable / crewed for lack of funds. The UK has not anti-ballistic missile system (e.g.Patriot). There is only money for 12 F-35A, the smallest F-35A order on the planet. The tank force is at its smallest since 1938.
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Read 5 tweets
Mar 4
International Law is worthless paper if you cannot and will not back it up with military power.

Dictators do not care for international law. But they fear the US Air Force. The moment the US signaled it would no longer back "international law" putin annexed Crimea and Assad
1/10
gassed his people. International Law is what defence laggards hide behind to not have to spend for their own security (hoping the US will save them from their irresponsibility) .

European politicians like to grandstand about "international law" but NO European nation has the
2/n
the means (nor the will) to the enforce it. European politicians grandstanding about international law always do so in the belief that the US will enforce their balderdash.
So European politicians lecturing the US about "international law" now are utter morons, because they
3/n
Read 10 tweets
Feb 21
All this "NATO is unprepared for the use of drones like the war in Ukraine" is ridiculous, because:

• of course NATO is unprepared for the use of drones like the war IN (!) Ukraine,
• because that is not how a NATO-russia war will be fought. NATO, even just European NATO,
1/4
fields: 244 F-35, 403 Eurofighter, 183 Rafale, 177 modern F-16, 3 Gripen E, and 896 older fighter types.
A total of 1,906+ fighters (without the US Air Force and Royal Canadian Air Force; and with more new fighters entering European service every week).

russia, when counting
2/4
generously can't even put half that fighter strength into the field, and the 1,010 modern European NATO fighters would devastate russia's fighter force.

With NATO air supremacy comes absolute dominance of the battlefield. Every russian moving near the front would get bombed
3/4
Read 4 tweets

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