Ukrainian troops I spoke to say that russia's Lancet kamikaze drones are currently the biggest problem they face on the battlefield... and that they have no solution to the problem yet.
First: No (!) NATO army has a solution to this problem, as all NATO armies lack a system
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like i.e. the Skyranger capable to shoot down kamikaze drones... and the ridiculously low numbers of systems being ordered aren't gonna do any good.
If NATO militaries would have taken the drone threat serious, 60+ Skyranger would come of the production lines monthly now. 2/n
Only the US Army has gone on an emergency shopping spree to buy Stryker M-SHORAD vehicles, but 12x batteries of 12x vehicles is far too little.
So how can we help Ukraine? There are four ways:
1) Taurus 2) Harop 3) 🚀tech transfer 4) get off our asses and start building 60+ 3/n
Skyranger a month. As 4 isn't gonna happen... let's look at the other three solutions.
Taurus is a German air-launched cruise missile with a range of 500+ km. Lancet drones have to be trucked to the front, which means that destroying the russian lines of communication, like 4/n
the Kerch bridge, will result in less and less Lancets reaching the front. Naturally also less and less ammo, fuel, and other materiel will reach the front - so Taurus deliveries are a MUST. Right now Ukraine uses British/French Storm Shadows/SCALP EG cruise missiles for this 5/n
task, but the more sophisticated penetrator warhead of the Taurus (being loaded into the missile in this photo) and its extended range would give Ukraine the ability to strike russian depots and bridges more efficiently and much further away.
Still, a much better solution 6/n
would be to finally deliver IAI Harop kamikaze drones to Ukraine. The Lancet is technologically trash - cheap optics, 50km range, 1x hour loitering time, small warhead... while the IAI Harop is a beast: 200km range, 6+ hour loitering time, 5x heavier warhead than the Lancet. 7/n
Harops won't stop all Lancet strikes, but they will help to devastate russian vehicles all along the front. And if nothing can drive near the front, it will be difficult for the russian to bring up the Lancets and their launch catapults... but of course Harops will also
8/n
exterminate all other russian vehicles. They are just that good. If you don't have a NATO-style airforce, 1,000s of Harops can be the decisive factor in a war, as Armenia had to experience in the lost 2020 Karabakh war.
That Israel still refuses to
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transfer Harop drones to Ukraine is a scandal and disgusting and vile!
Taurus and Harop would alleviate the Lancet problem... but the real cure is to attack and annihilate russia's Lancet production lines, which is EXACTLY what NATO would do: tomahawk the Lancets out of 10/n
existence with half a dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Ukraine doesn't have cruise missiles with the necessary range (yet) and the US is not willing to transfer a missile that can strike targets 1600+ km (1000+ miles) deep inside russia... but as time is of the essence, the
11/n
transfer of off-the-shelf missile parts for a Ukrainian designed and built cruise missile would be the ideal solution to give Ukraine the ability to strike the Lancet factories ASAP.
A Western rocket engine, a guidance section, etc. paired with a Ukrainian warhead and hull, 12/n
and soon Ukraine would be able to eliminate the Lancet factories once and for all.
All these options aren't ideal: Taurus and Harop are ready to go, but would only alleviate the problem; a Ukrainian cruise missile would solve it, but would take time to become operational... 13/n
The reason we're here is because the West hasn't bothered developing and producing counter-drone systems, after the 2020 Karabakh war showed the dangers of drone swarms, and we're here because the West is only reacting to developments on the battlefield in Ukraine, instead
14/n
of actively preparing for things that will happen - like renewed massive attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure this winter, for which the West is neither preparing the needed air defense systems, nor the spare parts to repair the damaged heating and electricity systems, nor
15/n
helping Ukraine establish deterrence by helping Ukraine produce its own long range cruise missiles to strike at russian electricity and heating plants.
In short: Ukrainians are fighting for us, but politicians in "old Europe" and the White House, still haven't grasped the
16/n
severity of the situation and are dropping the ball on most of pressing issues... especially on increasing military production in Europe and helping Ukraine produce the weapons it needs to destroy russian production facilities for drones and missiles.
17/end
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And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
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This is Copenhagen.
And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
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This is Paris.
And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
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Are the American M142 HIMARS and the M270A2 MLRS the best rocket/missile launchers... yes, they are.
Should Europe buy them? No.
Not as long as @LockheedMartin doesn't have a production line IN EUROPE for GMLRS, GMLRS-ER, ATACMS and PrSM missiles... but as long as Europe 1/9
is ordering only itsy-bitsy amounts of missiles, there is no incentive for Lockheed Martin to produce missiles in Europe... which means at any given moment MAGA can deny Europe the needed missiles to defend itself against a russian attack.
So... Europe can either order 10,000
2/n
missiles per year,... or have a look at the second best rocket/missile launcher: Israel's PULS.
Should Europe buy it? No.
Because the missile production line in Israel is too small to support Europe's missile needs... again, Europe would have to either commit to buy 10,000 3/n
Let's run some numbers on Ukraine's brilliant operation to take out russia's strategic aviation deep in russia and Siberia.
8× containers are visible in this image
As Ukraine sent 2× containers to each of the 5× air bases they attacked, another 2× must be out of sight. 1/6
Each container roof seems to have housed 9 compartments. Here we can see that at 3× per compartments, but they might have even had space for 4× drones.
Quick math: that's 27× or 36× drones.
Two containers per air base: 54× or 72× drones
But (!) not all compartments likely 2/6
held drones.
As we saw in this video from on of the containers launching drones, the roof of the containers slid to the side and fell down... so one compartment might have housed the motor and system to slide the roof off.
Also all the containers self-destructed once they 3/6
Italy's 61º Stormo received enough of the new T-345A basic jet trainers to begin pilot training this June.
As everyone knows, I am all for growing European militaries and adding capabilities... but why does EVERYTHING have to be with US engines?
Europe must stop buying US
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made kit, components and weapon systems.
The Italian T-345A (left) and the Czech L-39 Skyfox (right) are the only two basic jet trainers currently in production in Europe... and both use a Williams International FJ44-4M turbofan made in Ogden, Utah.
Yes, there are more 2/n
American components than just the engines in both, but as aircraft are designed around their engines Europe needs to stop buying American and start building engines again.
Both planes the T-345A and L-39 Skyfox replace used European engines: the Italian MB-339 (pic) 3/n
To my American followers: it is time to plan for exile.
Doesn't mean you will have to leave, but based on experiences of Jews fleeing Nazi Germany after 1933 here are a few things to make escape and exile easier:
1) get an up to date passport (the regime might no issue you
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one in the future thus stranding you) 2) if possible get a passport from another nation. It doesn't matter which; just get a passport the regime can't cancel. 3) open bank accounts in a foreign nation (I can't stress this enough! The regime will freeze your American accounts,
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which will prevent you i.e. from booking a flight; and you will arrive in another nation penniless if you do not shift your funds into a non-American bank in a non-American nation ASAP) 4) plan for the regime putting you on a no-fly list. How can you get to the border and to
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