Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Aug 18, 2023 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Ukrainian troops I spoke to say that russia's Lancet kamikaze drones are currently the biggest problem they face on the battlefield... and that they have no solution to the problem yet.

First: No (!) NATO army has a solution to this problem, as all NATO armies lack a system
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like i.e. the Skyranger capable to shoot down kamikaze drones... and the ridiculously low numbers of systems being ordered aren't gonna do any good.

If NATO militaries would have taken the drone threat serious, 60+ Skyranger would come of the production lines monthly now.
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Only the US Army has gone on an emergency shopping spree to buy Stryker M-SHORAD vehicles, but 12x batteries of 12x vehicles is far too little.

So how can we help Ukraine? There are four ways:

1) Taurus
2) Harop
3) 🚀tech transfer
4) get off our asses and start building 60+
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Skyranger a month. As 4 isn't gonna happen... let's look at the other three solutions.

Taurus is a German air-launched cruise missile with a range of 500+ km. Lancet drones have to be trucked to the front, which means that destroying the russian lines of communication, like
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the Kerch bridge, will result in less and less Lancets reaching the front. Naturally also less and less ammo, fuel, and other materiel will reach the front - so Taurus deliveries are a MUST. Right now Ukraine uses British/French Storm Shadows/SCALP EG cruise missiles for this
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task, but the more sophisticated penetrator warhead of the Taurus (being loaded into the missile in this photo) and its extended range would give Ukraine the ability to strike russian depots and bridges more efficiently and much further away.

Still, a much better solution
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would be to finally deliver IAI Harop kamikaze drones to Ukraine. The Lancet is technologically trash - cheap optics, 50km range, 1x hour loitering time, small warhead... while the IAI Harop is a beast: 200km range, 6+ hour loitering time, 5x heavier warhead than the Lancet.
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Harops won't stop all Lancet strikes, but they will help to devastate russian vehicles all along the front. And if nothing can drive near the front, it will be difficult for the russian to bring up the Lancets and their launch catapults... but of course Harops will also
8/n
exterminate all other russian vehicles. They are just that good. If you don't have a NATO-style airforce, 1,000s of Harops can be the decisive factor in a war, as Armenia had to experience in the lost 2020 Karabakh war.

That Israel still refuses to

9/n
transfer Harop drones to Ukraine is a scandal and disgusting and vile!

Taurus and Harop would alleviate the Lancet problem... but the real cure is to attack and annihilate russia's Lancet production lines, which is EXACTLY what NATO would do: tomahawk the Lancets out of
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existence with half a dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Ukraine doesn't have cruise missiles with the necessary range (yet) and the US is not willing to transfer a missile that can strike targets 1600+ km (1000+ miles) deep inside russia... but as time is of the essence, the
11/n
transfer of off-the-shelf missile parts for a Ukrainian designed and built cruise missile would be the ideal solution to give Ukraine the ability to strike the Lancet factories ASAP.
A Western rocket engine, a guidance section, etc. paired with a Ukrainian warhead and hull,
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and soon Ukraine would be able to eliminate the Lancet factories once and for all.
All these options aren't ideal: Taurus and Harop are ready to go, but would only alleviate the problem; a Ukrainian cruise missile would solve it, but would take time to become operational...
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The reason we're here is because the West hasn't bothered developing and producing counter-drone systems, after the 2020 Karabakh war showed the dangers of drone swarms, and we're here because the West is only reacting to developments on the battlefield in Ukraine, instead
14/n
of actively preparing for things that will happen - like renewed massive attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure this winter, for which the West is neither preparing the needed air defense systems, nor the spare parts to repair the damaged heating and electricity systems, nor
15/n
helping Ukraine establish deterrence by helping Ukraine produce its own long range cruise missiles to strike at russian electricity and heating plants.

In short: Ukrainians are fighting for us, but politicians in "old Europe" and the White House, still haven't grasped the
16/n
severity of the situation and are dropping the ball on most of pressing issues... especially on increasing military production in Europe and helping Ukraine produce the weapons it needs to destroy russian production facilities for drones and missiles.

17/end

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More from @noclador

Dec 5
The @RoyalAirForce - once the strongest air force in Western Europe... but now...

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from the personnel & fighters of the RAF's operational conversion units).

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I was asked to talk about Austria's Armed Forces... which is a bit boring, because surprisingly their armed forces get so much right.

Yes, the Austrians are some of the worst sanctions ignorers when it comes to russia, and they host the biggest russian signals intelligence
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station outside of russia, and are home to the largest number of russian intelligence operators after London, but when it comes to the Austrian Army and Austrian Air Force procurement there is little to criticize... except of course that many of their officers are compromised
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by the russians and the austrian defence ministry leaks every bit of intelligence to moscow...

Anyway, unlike the other neutral EU member (an island that spends GDP-wise less on its armed forces than the Vatican), Austria has a proper air force and a proper army; both of
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Nov 7
Italy has ordered its first KF41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicles... but there is a twist.

As the Italian Army is in a rush to ready its forces to battle invading russians in the Baltics (& Finland), the first 5 × KF41 will arrive within weeks in the Hungarian configuration.
1/8 Image
That means there won't be any Italianization of the first 5 × KF41. The Italian Army feels that it can't wait for that. Training has to start ASAP.

Therefore these 5 × KF41 will come with Rheinmetall's Lance Turret with 30mm MK30-2/ABM autocannon. Along with these KF41 Italy
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will receive training and simulation systems to begin training troops ASAP.

This order also includes 16 × KF41 in a hybrid version: the chassis will come from the Hungarian production line, but these KF41 will receive Leonardo's Hitfist turret with Leonardo's 30mm X-Gun.
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Oct 30
I am relaxed about the US ending the rotation of a light brigade through Romania.

Yes, it is bad optics and russia will use it for its propaganda, BUT two armored brigades, a combat aviation brigade, a division artillery, a division sustainment brigade, and a division HQ
1/4 Image
continue to rotate to Poland and the Baltics.

Right now the:
• 3rd Infantry Division HQ (arrived in Poland 4 days ago - photo)
• 1st Armored Brigade, 1st Infantry Division
• 3rd Armored Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division
• 3rd Division Artillery
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are in Poland and the Baltics.

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Sep 13
Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?

There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia
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could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
2/5
troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
3/5
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Sep 7
The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.

If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.

This will be a unsettling thread:
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This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.

To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,


2/n
and at the WWII Battle of the Atlantic. We will also have to take a deep dive into the Cold War and that era's submarines and submarine tactics.

In WWI the Imperial German Navy sent some 300+ submarines into the Atlantic, which sank more than 4,000 merchant vessels. The UK
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Read 41 tweets

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