Ukrainian troops I spoke to say that russia's Lancet kamikaze drones are currently the biggest problem they face on the battlefield... and that they have no solution to the problem yet.
First: No (!) NATO army has a solution to this problem, as all NATO armies lack a system
1/17
like i.e. the Skyranger capable to shoot down kamikaze drones... and the ridiculously low numbers of systems being ordered aren't gonna do any good.
If NATO militaries would have taken the drone threat serious, 60+ Skyranger would come of the production lines monthly now. 2/n
Only the US Army has gone on an emergency shopping spree to buy Stryker M-SHORAD vehicles, but 12x batteries of 12x vehicles is far too little.
So how can we help Ukraine? There are four ways:
1) Taurus 2) Harop 3) 🚀tech transfer 4) get off our asses and start building 60+ 3/n
Skyranger a month. As 4 isn't gonna happen... let's look at the other three solutions.
Taurus is a German air-launched cruise missile with a range of 500+ km. Lancet drones have to be trucked to the front, which means that destroying the russian lines of communication, like 4/n
the Kerch bridge, will result in less and less Lancets reaching the front. Naturally also less and less ammo, fuel, and other materiel will reach the front - so Taurus deliveries are a MUST. Right now Ukraine uses British/French Storm Shadows/SCALP EG cruise missiles for this 5/n
task, but the more sophisticated penetrator warhead of the Taurus (being loaded into the missile in this photo) and its extended range would give Ukraine the ability to strike russian depots and bridges more efficiently and much further away.
Still, a much better solution 6/n
would be to finally deliver IAI Harop kamikaze drones to Ukraine. The Lancet is technologically trash - cheap optics, 50km range, 1x hour loitering time, small warhead... while the IAI Harop is a beast: 200km range, 6+ hour loitering time, 5x heavier warhead than the Lancet. 7/n
Harops won't stop all Lancet strikes, but they will help to devastate russian vehicles all along the front. And if nothing can drive near the front, it will be difficult for the russian to bring up the Lancets and their launch catapults... but of course Harops will also
8/n
exterminate all other russian vehicles. They are just that good. If you don't have a NATO-style airforce, 1,000s of Harops can be the decisive factor in a war, as Armenia had to experience in the lost 2020 Karabakh war.
That Israel still refuses to
9/n
transfer Harop drones to Ukraine is a scandal and disgusting and vile!
Taurus and Harop would alleviate the Lancet problem... but the real cure is to attack and annihilate russia's Lancet production lines, which is EXACTLY what NATO would do: tomahawk the Lancets out of 10/n
existence with half a dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Ukraine doesn't have cruise missiles with the necessary range (yet) and the US is not willing to transfer a missile that can strike targets 1600+ km (1000+ miles) deep inside russia... but as time is of the essence, the
11/n
transfer of off-the-shelf missile parts for a Ukrainian designed and built cruise missile would be the ideal solution to give Ukraine the ability to strike the Lancet factories ASAP.
A Western rocket engine, a guidance section, etc. paired with a Ukrainian warhead and hull, 12/n
and soon Ukraine would be able to eliminate the Lancet factories once and for all.
All these options aren't ideal: Taurus and Harop are ready to go, but would only alleviate the problem; a Ukrainian cruise missile would solve it, but would take time to become operational... 13/n
The reason we're here is because the West hasn't bothered developing and producing counter-drone systems, after the 2020 Karabakh war showed the dangers of drone swarms, and we're here because the West is only reacting to developments on the battlefield in Ukraine, instead
14/n
of actively preparing for things that will happen - like renewed massive attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure this winter, for which the West is neither preparing the needed air defense systems, nor the spare parts to repair the damaged heating and electricity systems, nor
15/n
helping Ukraine establish deterrence by helping Ukraine produce its own long range cruise missiles to strike at russian electricity and heating plants.
In short: Ukrainians are fighting for us, but politicians in "old Europe" and the White House, still haven't grasped the
16/n
severity of the situation and are dropping the ball on most of pressing issues... especially on increasing military production in Europe and helping Ukraine produce the weapons it needs to destroy russian production facilities for drones and missiles.
17/end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Gripen fans continue to spam my mention with claims how fantastic Sweden's Bas 90 and Gripen combination is... and that it would work for Canada's North too...
Ok, let's quickly compare Canada's three northern territories (Yukon, Northwest, Nunavut) and Sweden... ... 1/6
Land area:
🇸🇪 450,295 km2 (173,860 sq mi)
🇨🇦 terr.: 3,593,589 km2 (173,860 sq mi)
The land area of just the three territories (without Canada's 10 provinces) is already 8 times bigger than all of Sweden...
(In total Canada's land area is 9,984,670 km2
2/6
(3,855,100 sq mi) or 22 times Sweden).
Population:
🇸🇪 10.61 million
🇨🇦 terr.: 0.13 million
Sweden's population is 81.6 times bigger than that of the three territories... and if you look at population density:
🇸🇪 23,6/km2
🇨🇦 terr.: 0,013/km2
3/6
Saab loooves to tout the claim that the Gripen can "operate from dispersed air bases".
They do that, because they know no one of you knows what it means. And every time I see someone regurgite "dispersed air bases" (or "road runways" or "short runways") I know I am dealing
1/36
with someone, who knows absolutely nothing about the topic.
So allow me to take you on a deep dive into what "operating from dispersed air bases" actually means.
Let's start with Såtenäs Air Base in Southern Sweden - the most important Swedish air base. 2/n
When the Viggen entered service, Såtenäs received it first.
When the Gripen entered service, Såtenäs received it first.
When the Gripen E entered service, Såtenäs received it first.
In the 1950s Sweden developed the Bas 60 system, which would have dispersed the Swedish 3/n
The 11th Airborne Division is the least likely to be used to invade #Greenland.
The division's deputy commander is Canadian. He is responsible for Operations. The 11th would have to arrest part of their own officers, before being able to plan a Greenland invasion.
Also
1/6
there are just 8 C-17 Globemaster aircraft at Elmendorf Air Force Base. The USAF would need to fly a dozen more up to Alaska, which of course Canada would notice. Then to reach Greenland the C-17 would have to cross Canada's North, which NORAD's Canadian officers would report
2/6
to the Canadian and Danish governments.
It is much more likely the US will inform allies that a brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg will fly to the Middle East, which means the air route will take them right over Greenland. And at Fort Bragg you also have the
3/6
This is a typical clown tweet by someone, who knows nothing about WWII.
3 years before D-Day, the Soviets & nazis were in a love-feast, while the US had not entered the war; & when it did it had to cross an ocean full of nazi submarines to stage troops & materiel for D-Day.
1/14
And unlike the warmongering Soviets, which in June 1941 fielded 304 divisions, the US Army fielded just 37 divisions when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor (+ two Marine Corps divisions).
Before any D-Day the US Army had to start forming new divisions (38 in 1942 and 17 in 1943) &
2/n
then ship those divisions across the Atlantic, which was teeming with German subs, while the Soviets just used trains to bring troops and materiel to the front (& if the Soviet had had to ship troops across an ocean, they would have just accepted that a third of their troops
3/n
The @RoyalAirForce - once the strongest air force in Western Europe... but now...
7 Eurofighter Typhoon squadrons are expected to fulfill the tasks, for which 35 years ago the RAF fielded 40 squadrons (31 active & 4 reserve + 5 shadow squadrons, which would have been formed
1/27
from the personnel & fighters of the RAF's operational conversion units).
At the end of the Cold War these 40 squadrons were assigned to 4 commands, each with a specific mission & enough aircraft to fulfill their mission.
No. 1 Group was tasked with striking Soviet forces
2/27
in Northern Germany, including with WE.177 tactical nukes.
The Group fielded 8 active, 4 reserve and 2 shadow squadrons, which flew Tornado GR1, Jaguar GR1A, and Harrier GR5 fighters (the reserve squadrons flew Hawk T1A). The group also included the RAF's 3 aerial
3/27
Since there are still people claiming the Gripen is the "ideal fighter for Canada"... here are the refueling stops the Gripen C/D needed to get from Ronneby in Sweden to Eielson Air Base in Alaska.
So of course this is an "ideal fighter" for Canada... as it will have to stop 1/5
at every Canadian airfield to refuel...
For the curious ones:
On 13 July 2006 five Gripen C and two Gripen D left
their base in Ronneby Sweden. They refueled at RAF Lossiemouth in Scotland, then flew to NAS Keflavik in Iceland, where they refueled and stayed overnight.
2/5
On 14 July the Gripens flew to Sondre Stromfjord in Greenland for another refueling, then proceeded to RCAF Iqualuit in Canada for refueling and the night.
On 15 July the Gripens flew to Churchill, refuelled and then flew to RCAF Cold Lake, where they spent 16 July to rest.
3/5