Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Aug 18 17 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Ukrainian troops I spoke to say that russia's Lancet kamikaze drones are currently the biggest problem they face on the battlefield... and that they have no solution to the problem yet.

First: No (!) NATO army has a solution to this problem, as all NATO armies lack a system
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like i.e. the Skyranger capable to shoot down kamikaze drones... and the ridiculously low numbers of systems being ordered aren't gonna do any good.

If NATO militaries would have taken the drone threat serious, 60+ Skyranger would come of the production lines monthly now.
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Only the US Army has gone on an emergency shopping spree to buy Stryker M-SHORAD vehicles, but 12x batteries of 12x vehicles is far too little.

So how can we help Ukraine? There are four ways:

1) Taurus
2) Harop
3) 🚀tech transfer
4) get off our asses and start building 60+
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Skyranger a month. As 4 isn't gonna happen... let's look at the other three solutions.

Taurus is a German air-launched cruise missile with a range of 500+ km. Lancet drones have to be trucked to the front, which means that destroying the russian lines of communication, like
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the Kerch bridge, will result in less and less Lancets reaching the front. Naturally also less and less ammo, fuel, and other materiel will reach the front - so Taurus deliveries are a MUST. Right now Ukraine uses British/French Storm Shadows/SCALP EG cruise missiles for this
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task, but the more sophisticated penetrator warhead of the Taurus (being loaded into the missile in this photo) and its extended range would give Ukraine the ability to strike russian depots and bridges more efficiently and much further away.

Still, a much better solution
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would be to finally deliver IAI Harop kamikaze drones to Ukraine. The Lancet is technologically trash - cheap optics, 50km range, 1x hour loitering time, small warhead... while the IAI Harop is a beast: 200km range, 6+ hour loitering time, 5x heavier warhead than the Lancet.
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Harops won't stop all Lancet strikes, but they will help to devastate russian vehicles all along the front. And if nothing can drive near the front, it will be difficult for the russian to bring up the Lancets and their launch catapults... but of course Harops will also
8/n
exterminate all other russian vehicles. They are just that good. If you don't have a NATO-style airforce, 1,000s of Harops can be the decisive factor in a war, as Armenia had to experience in the lost 2020 Karabakh war.

That Israel still refuses to

9/n
transfer Harop drones to Ukraine is a scandal and disgusting and vile!

Taurus and Harop would alleviate the Lancet problem... but the real cure is to attack and annihilate russia's Lancet production lines, which is EXACTLY what NATO would do: tomahawk the Lancets out of
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existence with half a dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Ukraine doesn't have cruise missiles with the necessary range (yet) and the US is not willing to transfer a missile that can strike targets 1600+ km (1000+ miles) deep inside russia... but as time is of the essence, the
11/n
transfer of off-the-shelf missile parts for a Ukrainian designed and built cruise missile would be the ideal solution to give Ukraine the ability to strike the Lancet factories ASAP.
A Western rocket engine, a guidance section, etc. paired with a Ukrainian warhead and hull,
12/n Image
and soon Ukraine would be able to eliminate the Lancet factories once and for all.
All these options aren't ideal: Taurus and Harop are ready to go, but would only alleviate the problem; a Ukrainian cruise missile would solve it, but would take time to become operational...
13/n Image
The reason we're here is because the West hasn't bothered developing and producing counter-drone systems, after the 2020 Karabakh war showed the dangers of drone swarms, and we're here because the West is only reacting to developments on the battlefield in Ukraine, instead
14/n
of actively preparing for things that will happen - like renewed massive attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure this winter, for which the West is neither preparing the needed air defense systems, nor the spare parts to repair the damaged heating and electricity systems, nor
15/n
helping Ukraine establish deterrence by helping Ukraine produce its own long range cruise missiles to strike at russian electricity and heating plants.

In short: Ukrainians are fighting for us, but politicians in "old Europe" and the White House, still haven't grasped the
16/n
severity of the situation and are dropping the ball on most of pressing issues... especially on increasing military production in Europe and helping Ukraine produce the weapons it needs to destroy russian production facilities for drones and missiles.

17/end

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More from @noclador

Aug 13
I have been very, very critical of the German government's slow response to russia's invasion and lack of weapon deliveries in 2022, BUT now I have to defend Germany: saying "only half of what Germany promised has been delivered" is bullshit.

Germany's military is out of
1/2 Image
materiel to give to Ukraine. Almost all that has been pledged now comes from Germany's defense industry, which means it has to be produced first.
Germany never said everything would come right away - it has always said that everything pledged will arrive right after it has
2/4 Image
been produced. All of it will go directly from factory to the front. If you visit the German government's website, that lists all of the equipment delivered to Ukraine - everything marked with a * comes from industry. Of 178 items listed - 119 come
3/4
bundesregierung.de/breg-de/schwer…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 13
As news from Karabakh become more shrill, a short thread about what led to the standoff:

• Armenian weapon smuggling

Karabakh can be supplied by two roads, which both end in Karabakh's capital Stepanakert/Xankəndi (green):

• from Goris in Armenia via Lachin (purple)
1/18 Image
• from Barda in Azerbaijan via Aghdam (blue)

For the last few years the Armenians have been using the newly built Lachin road, which crosses through Azerbaijan before reaching Armenian held Karabakh, which is recognized by all nations (including by Armenia) to be part of
2/18 Image
Azerbaijan. For years Azerbaijan did not interfere with Armenian traffic on the Lachin road; but with the mandate of the russian "peacekeepers" running out in November 2025, the Karabakh Armenians, aided by the russian "peacekeepers", began to smuggle weapons and ammo
3/18 Image
Read 18 tweets
Aug 9
The 111 known Ukrainian combat brigades are:

Army:
• 34x Mechanized
• 5x Tank
• 5x Motorized
• 4x Rifle
• 2x Jaeger
• 2x Mountain
• 2x Assault
• 1x Special Purpose
• 1x Presidential

Air Assault Forces:
• 4x Air Assault
• 3x Airmobile
• 1x Airborne
• 1x Jaeger
1/6 Image
Marine Corps:
• 4x Marine

Air Force:
• 1x Rifle

Territorial Defense:
• 31x Defense

National Guard:
• 7x Offensive Guard

National Police:
• 1x Offensive Guard

Border Guards:
• 1x Offensive Guard

General Staff:
• 1x Guards

And there might be more.
2/6 Image
As for support brigades and regiments:

• 3x Special Forces regiments
• 16x Artillery brigades
• 1x Rocket Artillery regiment
• 2x Engineer brigades
• 5x Engineer regiments
• 3x Pontoon Bridge regiments
• 7x Tactical Aviation brigades
• 4x Army Aviation brigades
3/6 Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 7
This is how they lost the last war, this is how they are gonna lose everything...

Insisting that there never must be peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, means that the war never ends and means that Azerbaijan is legally entitled to use force to disarm the Armenian military
1/5
formations inside Azerbaijan. No peace also means that Armenia refuses to accept the border with Azerbaijan... but that means that Azerbaijan can grab pieces of the border lands at will and Armenia has no chance to get international support, as Armenia refused to demarcate
2/5
the border.

Armenia's Prime Minister Pashinyan has understood this and is trying his best to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, and also end the stupid cold war with Turkey. It's the only way to safeguard the future of Armenians in Karabakh and bring prosperity to Armenia.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Aug 1
As there is a bit of a kerfuffle again in the South Caucasus... a quick explainer:

• russian "peacekeepers" and Karabakh Armenians used the Lachin road, which passes through Azerbaijan, to smuggle weapons and ammunition from Armenia to Karabakh.
• to stop this Azerbaijan
1/12 Image
built a border post on the Lachin road and insists on inspecting all trucks.
• the Karabakh Armenians insist that Azerbaijan has no right to inspect what is being transported through Azerbaijan into Azerbaijan.
• in Brussel Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to open the Aghdam
2/12 Image
road from Azerbaijan to Karabakh, and agreed that on this road there would be no inspections at all.
• but the Karabakh Armenians blocked that road and
• now the Karabakh Armenians insist that they are starving...

The problem is that Armenia wants peace, Azerbaijan wants
3/12 Image
Read 12 tweets
Jul 20
A new Pentagon budget realignment file dropped (thank you @osmnactej for finding it).

Again it has a lot of interesting info about what weapons have been sent to Ukraine... and what the Pentagon is ordering more than $2 billion from the US industry to replace it.
1/22 Image
• $105.5m Javelin Anti-tank guided missiles
• $3.35m M67 Hand grenades

It seems a lot of smoke grenades have been given to Ukraine (which are used by infantry as here in Iraq):
• $2.78m M18 Smoke grenades (Red)
• $0.59m M18 Smoke grenades (Yellow)
• $1.55m M8 Smoke Pots
2/n Image
• $38.4m M7A4 Bradley Fire Support Team (BFIST) artillery forward observer vehicles
• $15.6m 25mm ammo for the Bradleys' M242 chain gun
• $1.14m Bradley spares
• $0.2m Bradley Operator Tablets

3/n Image
Read 19 tweets

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