Thread by @BigJoeBastardi

We put our first winter forecast out on Weatherbell. Here is the temperature and snow forecast. You can read it on our premium site. Just so happens the latest CFSV2 CONTROL run went nuts

Last year we said December was going to be cold, but the worry was the MJO would flip in Jan and Feb and it did. So the indo Pacific was very wet. This year is opposite and in line with the analogs we have been riding on the pattern since spring Its not just wishcasting

The warmth of the oceans does amplify signalling WHEN COLDER AIR MASSES SHOW UP When its just all warm like this, the MJO lollygags. As fall progresses should tip its hand. So we shall see, Read the discussion on premium. Notice when MJo changed in March, cold pushed more

I think while we have all these analogs, somehow the winter of 86-87 if I were to choose one, may be the most similar even though on its own, its not in the package. We called that "sensible" analog. IOW it turns out that way, even if it takes a blended route

Take aways is a big snow/rain season in the southwest mountains again pumping water tables up, More than normal snow in the south and eastern coastal plain. Winter may start late tho as Decembers tend to be warm but mid Jan to March coldest/stormiest next to averages