The MJO is a huge driver, but here is the problem in this age of more warming over land and northern oceans ( see thermohaline distribution of oceanic heat from geothermal input) is that it has alot of interference. If it was normal then we can just move it along. This is not normal This is what I have been trying to tell anyone that will listen.The tropics while warm, are not neatly as warm vs average than the temperate regions. If there is enhanced geothermal input its going to hit the N oceans and Indian ocean more . But it cant be from man-made sources

The blind faith of man made climate change advocates means they could not see challenges if it hit them in the face. Sudden warming of the SST has taken place ( hot spot) likey due to geothermal input to the east of Australia
Completely opposite El Nino, and not seen by models





So did the co2 fairy decide to fly over the ring of fire of which the Tonga volcano is in, and proclaim let there be unforecasted warming of an area that is cool in el ninos. Hot spots are like a prize fight, They deliver a blow at the time and then there is cumulative buildup

We put our first winter forecast out on Weatherbell. Here is the temperature and snow forecast. You can read it on our premium site. Just so happens the latest CFSV2 CONTROL run went nuts





Last year we said December was going to be cold, but the worry was the MJO would flip in Jan and Feb and it did. So the indo Pacific was very wet. This year is opposite and in line with the analogs we have been riding on the pattern since spring Its not just wishcasting

12/10 cold pool at 50mb was over Northern Siberia. now over the US This signals warming. But in 15 days it reverses to what we saw Dec 10. Cold is coming back. As Go cart Mozart checking out the weather charts, I spent month long vacations in the stratosphere Heres how this works as I learned it when they first started looking at this. If the stratosphere contracts ( cools) the troposphere underneath exoands ( which is dog, which is tail varies) So warming in stratosphere means cooling below in troposphere.

chart 1. 50 mb displacement on Dec 10
chart 2 US temps since Dec 10
chart 3. 50 mb foreccast Jan 8
The dramatic snap back warmup is something we outlined (Dr. Joel Myers rubber band theory) but unlike the post 89 outbreak winter far from over. More like 2014 IMO Wonder how many of the younger Accuweather.com people know some of their founders theory. Like him or not ,to the private weather industry he is, imo The Henry Ford of weather. Learned alot from fighting with him in class and at work. ha ha

Politically Correct Santa
'Twas the night before Christmas and Santa's a wreck ...
How to live in a world that's politically correct?
His workers no longer would answer to "Elves,"
"Vertically Challenged" they were calling themselves.
And labor conditions at the North Pole Were alleged by the union to stifle the soul.
Four reindeer had vanished, without much propriety,
Released to the wilds by the Humane Society.
And equal employment had made it quite clear
That Santa had better not use just reindeer.
So Dancer and Donner, Comet and Cupid,

If I was in charge of NOAA, I would passionately argue to increase funding for a revamping of the Saffir Simpson scale and reanalysis of all storms according to the updated scale, and underwater volcanic activity. If convinced co2 is settled science, why spend money on it? NHC, SPC, etc would all have me as an advocate. You would be too if you dug in and saw the great work. I will fight tooth and nail about my belief climate change is largely natural, but also advocate for agencies that enhance capability to adapt

Eyelike structure starting to form. Now the question is are my concerns about tightening coming to the coast valid. Step one is the eye. Step 2 rapid feedback tightening last 12-18 hours in. Its a known natural phenonema BTW the first indication we would have to deal with this was tweeted out ( after clients and Subscribers saw it) on oct 27th. Check this JMA ideal upward motion. Pattern similar to Kate at 500 mb

If co2 is such a big heat trapping gas and increasing the density of the atmosphere (Bill Nye using Venus as his example) then why are lapse rates for the buoyancy of the air not changing?. Afterall a more dense atmosphere would have to affect the rate a parcel of air can respond The insanity of comparing the trace gas co2 to things like arsenic in water, or using terms as warm air can hold more water ( then why are they so worried about more flooding?) shows these people will not confront physical realities I deal with each day in forecasting

accuweather.com/en/weather-new… one sided cherry picking jibberish, June was near the 30 year average globally and 6th coolest globally since 2000 on CDAS. Doesnt stop one sided meteo media from pushing their agenda. Very poor look at big picture Actual temps reveal 50% Us near/below Here is the actual global temp via satellite. that click bait weaponizers wont show you upfront. a
reason I wrote my book, as an antidote against the pandemic of climate hysteria. amazon.com/Weaponization-…

Look at this linkage that I have discovered between major spring cold, the hurricane season on the US coast, and then the following winter. Now if I believed man is the cause you can be darn sure this would be getting looked at. cfact.org/2021/07/09/if-… astounding linke This would reveal some kind of yearly cycle, that would isolate the colder samples of the La Nina winter. Most of the samples are coming off a La Nina winter. which in the means is warm in the south and the east. But the exceptions are linked here