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Randy Mott Profile picture
@randymot4
Aug 19, 2023 • 21 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
RUSSIA IS LOSING BADLY
This thread will set out all of the indications that the Russians are now losing badly. This is not based on opinions, but tangible evidence that can be verified from open sources./1
@threadreaderapp unroll
Heavy Russian tank losses have been reported and verified by third-parties. These figures can be verified by the Russians being forced to bring in older and far less effective tanks. First it was T62s (designed in the 1950s)./2
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r…
Then they had to bring in T54s and T55s (designed in the late 1940s). These can even be taken out with the Bradley 25mm Bushmaster:/3
euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/22/mor…
Despite ridiculous claims by the Kremlin, their tank production rate is very small (400 tanks a year) and often is only modified older tanks or newer models without key modern systems./4
Russia also cannot replace troops losses with anyone but untrained conscript and convicts. This is reflected in the abysmal combat performance of units like tank crews:/5
wsj.com/video/series/n…
The conscripts drafted are normally sent to the front and left without adequate food, weapons or support. Dozens of these videos are emerging on UKr & Russian social media./6


Many attacks now are comprised soleyl of convicts & others with no training and inadequate weapons. Thousands of untrained convicts have been used as cannon fodder by the Russians (without significant tactical results)./7
New Russia attacks with convicts in the front have been repelled with great Russian losses./8
The lack of Russian rotation of units (done by Ukraine) means they have been engaged and fighting almost non-stop for months (see 12 Popov comments). This has led them to the edge of combat ineffectiveness across the front./9
The morale and effectivenss of Russian troops has dropped significantly. These Rusisans panicked a few days ago on the Southern front and were wiped out as Ukraine took a major objective./10
Ukrainians have been given far more accurate artillery by NATO than anything the Russian have (esp as they are now also bringing in ancient guns from storage)./11
The counter-battery Ukrainian fire has hit Russians hard and they have no effective response, according to one of their top generals./12
This type of fire has also decimated Russian air defenses, allowing Ukrainian drones to go anywhere (spotting for arty and directly taking out Russians)./13
An example of how free Ukraine rones are to roam behind the lines to direct precise fire here shows a Russian trraining area far from the front getting taken out by precision fire./14
Supplies of basic necessities to the troops on the front haved become very difficult. But often the corruption in the Russian supply chain rears its ugly head./15
The Ukrainians report destroying about 20 Russian artillery emplacements a day (1% of RF total). This can be verified by Russian reports that they have lost their major advantage in the war, i.e. the artillery disparity./16
While Russians with highly inaccurate guns have been firing cluster munitions from the beginning of the war, now that Ukraine is using more accurate and effective US cluster rounds, the Russians report major problems./17
These clsuter rounds are in abundance now and used to pound Russian defensive positions. This is also demoralizing Russian solders./18
There is a long way to go to force Russia out of Ukraine. Brave soldiers will die & eqpt will be lost. But Russia now has every indication of an army seeing signs of defeat everywhere. These clips & links are just a sample of the diluge of new info.
#RussiaLosing #UkraineMustWin
Anotehr development showing Russians desperation: they make inane attacks that only accelerate their demise. Here they lost important remaining T90s and some of their dwindling veterans who actually had some training./ 14
Another Russian general decides it is futile for Russian to try to win at this point./20
kyivpost.com/post/20671

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More from @randymot4

Randy Mott Profile picture
Dec 18, 2023
There are two Russian armies fighting in their invasion of Ukraine. There is the "second army" of the world with massive numbers of tanks and artillery pieces and soldiers that march with precision on Red Square and look like recruiting posters. This army is supported by a massive industrial base making "near peer" equipment at elevated rates.
Then there is another Russian army invading Ukraine. This one has lost 90% of its professional soldiers ("lifers" in US jargon). It is now filled with soldiers with 30 days or less training. Its officer corps depleted to a frction of the pre-war level. Never well-trained in manuever war or combined arms, this army uses clumsy tactics with little or no situational awareness. Vehicle drivers run over their own troops or into their own minefields. This army's generals order small unit attacks over and over again on the same avenues of approach that were dominated by the enemy the day before.
This second Russian army has blown through a massive amount of its first-line equipment. Older T62s from decades ago are seen in its formations and loss columns, because the first line T80/T72 modern versions are becoming scarce. This army's air defesne has proven far less capable than its published specifcations and has been pciked apart by droens and anti-radiation missiles. Self-propelled artillery seen in vast numbers on paper before the invasion are now repalced with ancvient D30 towed guins, vulnerable to counter-battery fire and drones.
The second army is the real one. The first army is the myth that Putin may still nourish, but - more importantly- the delusion that drives Western media to claim the war is a "stalemate" or that Russia can fight a long-war as it grows "stronger" deploying non-existent modern equipment and trained troops. The first zdrmy only appears in RedSquare films. The second one shows up in daily clips from the battlefield. THese clips seldom reported or published in Westgern popular media.
The same media - ignorant of the battlefield reality- dutifully reports the lines on the map and concludes there is a stalemate. It feeds a narrative that more "resistance is futile" (Russians are the Borg).
The scenario for the first army described is that Russia will never give up its occupied territories without a fight to the bitter end. The second army has lost effective control of Sevastapol and is losing its land bridge to Crimea due to long-range artillery fire and partisan warfare. In this real world scenario, Russia has lost much of its basic war objectives and is relying entirely on a political effort to break Western will to supply Ukraine.
The Russian losses, verified by third-parties, in the real world are staggering and accelrating. These have consumed the best Russian equipment and their best troops.
The comments below have links to multiple sources and information describing this "second Russian army" - the real one. It is clear that Russia's only hope is to break Western will, which cannot be allowed to happen. Ukraine does not need a piece of paper that crates "peace" (they alreayd got one of those in Budapest). Ukraine just needs ammo, as Presdient Zellensky famously said. #RussiaLosingBadly
#UkraineMustWinImage
Read 12 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Dec 6, 2023
Why are Republicans holding out for border securty before agreeing to fund Ukraine? This post will not try to justify that position, but will explain it.
1. GOP members of Congress have voted by wide margins for Ukraine aid in all "stand alone" votes.
thehill.com/policy/defense…
2. Republican chairmen and ranking members of the key committees have urged faster and more effective aid as well as a clear policy goal of Ukraine winning.
foxnews.com/politics/inter…
3. On the other hand, even with majorities in the past, they have not done enough to secure the border. Since President Biden entered the White House approximately 9.5 million migrants have illegally entered the United States.
Read 16 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Sep 13, 2023
Russian in Losing Badly Part 3
This is an update on all of the evience that Russian is losing badly right now.
Frantic efforts to try to get a ceasefire. The Russians are pushing for it, not Ukraine. /1
x.com/EmekaGift100/s…
Major advances pose breakthrough opportunity in the south. Russia loses operational effectiveness of Sevastapol. Russian artillery takes a poounding and is keeps getting worse./2
x.com/Tendar/status/…
NATO equipment crushes Russians. Bradleys. Go to minute 1:30/3
Read 15 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Sep 1, 2023
The DESCENT of Heritage Foundation To Become Russian Propaganda

Founded in the Reagan era, Heritage Foundation has been a major voice for his foreign policy and defense principles. This continued in the Ukraine war, until it changed dramatically./1
“Timidity, fear, & hesitancy incentivize aggression and worsen the consequences of war……half measures and tepid, delayed assistance lengthen the duration of conflict, increase the amount of destruction, add to suffering, & make war harder to end.” HF website, March 15, 2023./2 Image
Heritage Foundation, website, February 14, 2023:/3 Image
Read 25 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Aug 26, 2023
How the Heritage Foundation became a pro-Russian force.

You may have seen their TV ad that supports cutting off US aid to Ukraine, a major objective of Putin and the only possible way Russia can even get a "draw" out of the war. So let's start with how phony the ad is./1
The aid starts the full 7 yr authorization figure for Ukraine to create a big number that is makes absurd comparisons to Hawaii initital FEMA aid. The annual number is small & declining each yr. It is mostly spent in US, creating jobs to replace & update the donated eqpt./2
Image
Image
Heritage shifted to a claim that the aid is not accounted for. A blatant lie which plays on low information voters' fears and bias. Totally crap and Heritage must know it!/3
Read 25 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Aug 24, 2023
Colonel Douglas MacGregor: spreading lies on social media for people too lazy or biased to check.
He appears everywhere especially since his Tucker Carlson appearance. Everyone should know some facts before they get too excited about what he says./1
@DouglasMacGregor
His casualty numbers come straight from the Kremlin. They have been debunked by all NATO intelligence services. If his numbers were accurate, Ukrainians would not be so dedicated to continue fighting./2 Image
Here is the major effort by third-parties to verify losses on both sides ion the war. It is quite different that MacGregor's Kremlin nonsense./3
lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/dfbc…
Read 8 tweets

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