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Randy Mott Profile picture
@randymot4
Aug 19 • 21 tweets • 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
RUSSIA IS LOSING BADLY
This thread will set out all of the indications that the Russians are now losing badly. This is not based on opinions, but tangible evidence that can be verified from open sources./1
@threadreaderapp unroll
Heavy Russian tank losses have been reported and verified by third-parties. These figures can be verified by the Russians being forced to bring in older and far less effective tanks. First it was T62s (designed in the 1950s)./2
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r…
Then they had to bring in T54s and T55s (designed in the late 1940s). These can even be taken out with the Bradley 25mm Bushmaster:/3
euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/22/mor…
Despite ridiculous claims by the Kremlin, their tank production rate is very small (400 tanks a year) and often is only modified older tanks or newer models without key modern systems./4
Russia also cannot replace troops losses with anyone but untrained conscript and convicts. This is reflected in the abysmal combat performance of units like tank crews:/5
wsj.com/video/series/n…
The conscripts drafted are normally sent to the front and left without adequate food, weapons or support. Dozens of these videos are emerging on UKr & Russian social media./6


Many attacks now are comprised soleyl of convicts & others with no training and inadequate weapons. Thousands of untrained convicts have been used as cannon fodder by the Russians (without significant tactical results)./7
New Russia attacks with convicts in the front have been repelled with great Russian losses./8
The lack of Russian rotation of units (done by Ukraine) means they have been engaged and fighting almost non-stop for months (see 12 Popov comments). This has led them to the edge of combat ineffectiveness across the front./9
The morale and effectivenss of Russian troops has dropped significantly. These Rusisans panicked a few days ago on the Southern front and were wiped out as Ukraine took a major objective./10
Ukrainians have been given far more accurate artillery by NATO than anything the Russian have (esp as they are now also bringing in ancient guns from storage)./11
The counter-battery Ukrainian fire has hit Russians hard and they have no effective response, according to one of their top generals./12
This type of fire has also decimated Russian air defenses, allowing Ukrainian drones to go anywhere (spotting for arty and directly taking out Russians)./13
An example of how free Ukraine rones are to roam behind the lines to direct precise fire here shows a Russian trraining area far from the front getting taken out by precision fire./14
Supplies of basic necessities to the troops on the front haved become very difficult. But often the corruption in the Russian supply chain rears its ugly head./15
The Ukrainians report destroying about 20 Russian artillery emplacements a day (1% of RF total). This can be verified by Russian reports that they have lost their major advantage in the war, i.e. the artillery disparity./16
While Russians with highly inaccurate guns have been firing cluster munitions from the beginning of the war, now that Ukraine is using more accurate and effective US cluster rounds, the Russians report major problems./17
These clsuter rounds are in abundance now and used to pound Russian defensive positions. This is also demoralizing Russian solders./18
There is a long way to go to force Russia out of Ukraine. Brave soldiers will die & eqpt will be lost. But Russia now has every indication of an army seeing signs of defeat everywhere. These clips & links are just a sample of the diluge of new info.
#RussiaLosing #UkraineMustWin
Anotehr development showing Russians desperation: they make inane attacks that only accelerate their demise. Here they lost important remaining T90s and some of their dwindling veterans who actually had some training./ 14
Another Russian general decides it is futile for Russian to try to win at this point./20
kyivpost.com/post/20671

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More from @randymot4

Randy Mott Profile picture
Aug 18
What Some Republicans Get Wrong on Ukraine
The list of things that fringe Republicans believe on Ukraine that are totally wrong. Some are so convinced of their opinion that they often refuse to listen to any facts at all./1
@threadreaderapp unroll
That NATO provoked the Russian invasion: the Kremlin line which makes ZERO sense. Putin gambled that NATO would not respond and counted on Germany and France to keep NATO out of the war. Just as they had blocked Ukraine getting into NATO. FACTS:/2
iir.cz/lies-provocati…
The Kremlin line often unfortunately taken up by people without any effort to check the fact: that the US staged a coup in Ukraine in 2014, There was no coup, only a vote by Parliament to remove the President and hold a new election./3
bitterwinter.org/myth-of-the-am…
Read 13 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Aug 17
@DeSantisPrez @DeSantisWarRoom @RonDeSantis
@ChristinaPushaw

Time to clarify Governor DeSamntis views on Ukraine war. We want to support you, but do not want to abandon Ukraine to Russia. This thread lays out the facts compared to your comments to date:/1
This matters to 71 percent of Republicans that support aid to Ukraine. The cutesy answers that do not address the real facts are not enough./2
reuters.com/world/europe/t…
The "territorial dispute" line was a mistake and I hope it was retracted fully. There is no dispute on UKR borders./3 Image
Read 11 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Aug 17
MINEFIELDS: #RussianMinefields
Much has been written about the Russian extensive minefields in Ukraine, i.e. ten million mines. A very real obstacle to rapid advances. But some important considerations suggest that these barriers will be increasingly less effective.
(1) Minefields are only effective if they are covered by indirect fire and local direct fire. We have already seen cases where Ukrainians approached minefields/tank ditches without coming under indirect fire. The Russians are losing their artillery and ammo at high rates;
(2) As Ukrainians clear the initial line of defense (as they have a few places), they can observe Russian retreats across the next belt of mines, flagging the unmined routes. Drone and satellite observation also provides a plot of where the unmined routes are within the defenses for Russian themselves to move in troops or supplies.
(3) Multisensor drones and even satellite sensor observation can detect individual mines . These images are be plotted and cross-referenced to Russian troop movements or UA ground reconnaisance. The current abliity of Ukrainian drones to operate over the frontline and below makes this more feasible every day.

Below: a thermal image of a minefield in UJkraine.
Read 4 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Jul 24
#NotOurWar ? We hear that on social media and maybe from a few colleagues, but do they ever offer any explanation? Nope! They just assume that if they do not understand it, then there must be no explanation. This is wrong at many levels. Image
The map of Europe with Russia occupying Ukraine might start to explain some things. Ukr is 2nd largest country in Europe w/ big resources. But it is also a way to put pressure of a whole new set of negihbors./2 Image
Some of these neighbors are not in NATO. Without that deterrent, their future would be grim. Some time in the not distant future they would be absorbed by Russia. Kazaakhstan, Georgia, Moldova, etc./3 Image
Read 14 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Jul 18
This is a list of things that many Republicans believe on Ukraine that are totally wrong. But some are so convinced of their opinion that they refuse to listen to any facts at all. Please get smarter/1
That NATO provoked the Russian invasion. The Kremlin line which makes ZERO sense. Putin gambled that NATO would not respnd and counted on GR & FR to keep NATO out of it. Just as they had blocked UKR from being a NATO member. FACTS:/2
iir.cz/lies-provocati…
That the US aid is cash and is getting embezzled or kicked back to US politicians. ZERO evidence of this. But it is expressed as a moral certainty. FACTS:/3
Read 9 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Jun 25
/1
Russians defeated in major battle in the south: huge offensive attack was caught in a pocket of UKR artillery fire from three sides. Russians have had tremendous problems doing a combined arms assault and now these losses cannot be replaced.
/2
/3
Read 6 tweets

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