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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Aug 19, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
While "first reports are always wrong," there is more good news here than possibly two Backfire bombers (Tu-22m3) detonating under this reported AFU drone strike.

Russian missile tech🧵⬇️
1/7
Image
While some media sources are claiming that either Tu-22m3 or a fuel depot were hit. The smoke rising from is the wrong color for that.

Burning jet fuel is black.

The smoke rising from the VKS Soltsi military airfield isn't black. What's burning?
2/7
 en.defence-ua.com/events/a_drone…
Image
The answer is a bunch of these. These are Kh-22 (or X-22) anti-ship cruise missiles used on Cold War Backfire bomber to hunt USN Carriers.

Their warheads use the plastic explosive known as RDX.

The smoke over Soltsi military airfield is consistent with burning RDX.

3/7
Image
Image
While my "Google-fu" is weak. It is good enough to get a map of Soltsi military airfield.

There are dozens of Kh-22 & Kh-22 sized cylinders racked in the open to the left of the close up image below - a sitting duck target.

4/7
 google.com/maps/place/Sol…

Image
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The Kh-22 are usually stored unfuelled, because it has the same hypergolic propellent as the S-200's 5V28 SAM.

Propellant:

Storable Hypergolic Fuel: Tonka (TG-02) aka R-Stoff ( 50% triethylamine and 50% xylidine )

Oxidizer: AK-20K aka red fuming nitric acid (RFNA)

5/7 Image
The TG-02/AK-20K propellent mixture burns black as coal, just like jet fuel.

And since there were no reported evacuation orders at Soltsi.

Which is a absolute requirement for a TG-02/AK-20K fire, because no one is going to survive breathing unfiltered RFNA particulates.

6/7
Unfuelled Kh-22 missiles were destroyed in this drone strike at Soltsi military airfield.

Given a range of more than 650 km from the border with Ukraine for this strike.

We are seeing a new generation of precise AFU drone munitions arriving.

7/7 End
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-22
Image
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 23
The Ukrainian language version of this article has a great deal more on the design philosophy behind the FP-5 Flamingo.

A philosophy is utterly alien to the Big/Expensive/Few Western Flag Ranks & Defense contractors.

Production & Systems engineering🧵
1/
"According to Terekh, the design process for the Flamingo was the same as for other products: the rocket went through filters — can we mass-produce it? Will it be cost-effective? Will it be effective on the battlefield?

2/
"You can use anything. The main thing is that it works well on the battlefield, and not that it looks beautiful on paper or in advertising booklets. This is the main criterion."

3/
Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 23
Ukraine just confirmed my analysis of their FP-5 engine supplies:

"Before the start of mass production, Fire Point bought a large stock of old aircraft engines with a residual life of up to 10 hours.

1/4
They can no longer be used on aircraft, but their operating time is sufficient for the necessary tests after repair and the real flight phase – 3.5 hours.

The purchased engines are being repaired and modified:

2/4
...some of the structural elements are being simplified, and cheaper and easier-to-produce alternatives are being used instead of titanium parts that are resistant to wear. All this is necessary to reduce the cost and speed up the restoration work."

3/4
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 19
What most people miss about the Ukrainian oil campaign is that each Russian refinery was built to support certain local & international markets with certain types of crude oil.

This makes the entire Russian energy market "logistically brittle."

Russian Oil Market Logistics🧵
1/
Russia's oil refinery's locations and local/international markets were built by the Soviet Union.

They each were fed specific grades of crude oil, and the Soviet/Russian state railways fuel tank car fleets were scaled for just-in-time deliveries to & from those refineries.

2/
Ukraine's One Way Attack drone strategic bombing campaign hasn't been aimed to simply reduce Russian refinery output.

It was aimed to DESTABILIZE THE ENTIRE RUSSIAN ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN for export, civilian economic and Russian military operations.


3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 28
Remember all the professionally incompetent yo-yo naval officers & hangers on claiming FPV drones were not a threat to naval warships in 2023 WHEN I TOLD THEM THEY WOULD BE?

Reality just kicked them one and all in the 'nads...

...HARD⬇️

1/2
I told these professionally incompetent US navalists accounts on X/Twitter in 2023 that both containerized drones and FPV drones were a deadly threat to every naval vessel on the water they were ignoring to their crew's peril.

2/
Those professionally incompetent yo-yo US navalists accounts didn't listen because of their Dunning-Kruger group think delusions.

They refused to accept the reality that surprise FPV attacks happen because the enemy always gets a vote...FIRST!

This is where I laugh at them⬇️
3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 23
We need to have a talk about Russian military corruption and its effects on the Russo-Ukrainian War.

It's kind of like these sun-rotted missile truck tires that make my reputation on Twitter.

Corruption happens slowly, then all at once.

Corruption🧵
1/ Image
The Russian Army issued a "live off the land" order in early March 2022 resulted in lots of Russian enlisted stealing outside the line of sight of Russian junior officers.

This hollowed out discipline the RuAF "Professional Volunteers" in early 2022.

2/
Given the visuals of the base level corruption of Russian society in terms of oil income disparity.

A lot of "Russia Strong" yo-yo's just shrug and say, "so what, Russia won wars when it was corrupt."

3/
Read 21 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 21
At a production rate of 100 FP-1 drones a day. Fire Point will make 13,200 FP-1 one way attack (OWA) drone by 1 Jan 2026.

By itself.

Every other Ukrainian OWA drone maker is in addition to that 13,200 number.

1/2
If the FP-1 really is 60% of Ukrainian OWA drone production. (Rather than just recent launches)

0.6 (x) = 13,200
x = 13,200/0.6
x = 22,000

Ukraine is on track to make 22,000 OWA drones in the last 132 days of 2025. 👀


2/
22,000 Ukrainian OWA drones in 132 days certainly is a strategic bombing threat of the first order.

Even if Russia downs 80% of them.

That is 4,400 Ukrainian OWA drone hits in Russia in the next 132 days or 33 and 1/3 precision guided drone hits on Russia per day to 2026.
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets

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