Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 19, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
While "first reports are always wrong," there is more good news here than possibly two Backfire bombers (Tu-22m3) detonating under this reported AFU drone strike.

Russian missile tech🧵⬇️
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While some media sources are claiming that either Tu-22m3 or a fuel depot were hit. The smoke rising from is the wrong color for that.

Burning jet fuel is black.

The smoke rising from the VKS Soltsi military airfield isn't black. What's burning?
2/7
en.defence-ua.com/events/a_drone…
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The answer is a bunch of these. These are Kh-22 (or X-22) anti-ship cruise missiles used on Cold War Backfire bomber to hunt USN Carriers.

Their warheads use the plastic explosive known as RDX.

The smoke over Soltsi military airfield is consistent with burning RDX.

3/7
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While my "Google-fu" is weak. It is good enough to get a map of Soltsi military airfield.

There are dozens of Kh-22 & Kh-22 sized cylinders racked in the open to the left of the close up image below - a sitting duck target.

4/7
google.com/maps/place/Sol…

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The Kh-22 are usually stored unfuelled, because it has the same hypergolic propellent as the S-200's 5V28 SAM.

Propellant:

Storable Hypergolic Fuel: Tonka (TG-02) aka R-Stoff ( 50% triethylamine and 50% xylidine )

Oxidizer: AK-20K aka red fuming nitric acid (RFNA)

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The TG-02/AK-20K propellent mixture burns black as coal, just like jet fuel.

And since there were no reported evacuation orders at Soltsi.

Which is a absolute requirement for a TG-02/AK-20K fire, because no one is going to survive breathing unfiltered RFNA particulates.

6/7
Unfuelled Kh-22 missiles were destroyed in this drone strike at Soltsi military airfield.

Given a range of more than 650 km from the border with Ukraine for this strike.

We are seeing a new generation of precise AFU drone munitions arriving.

7/7 End
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-22
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More from @TrentTelenko

Jul 18
This:

"Russian aircraft manufacturers have failed to create analogues of foreign bearings and electronic components for aircraft, said Anatoly Gaydansky, CEO of Aerocomposite."

Also applies to railway cassette bearings for Russian wagons and locomotives.

Russian Railway🧵
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Low friction roller bearings are a major technological strength of the West. 

They are the difference between Rolls Royce jet engines lasting thousands of hours and Russian or Chinese jet engines lasting half as long.

Rail roller bearings are different in their application

2/
...but the computer control software for SKF & Amsted co-production machine tooling that Russia used is proprietary. That software left Russia in April/May 2022.

Russian rail system has been doing the whole 'just in time' inventory game

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 16
The following is a serialized post from Strategypage -dot- com on the disastrously bad US Navy leadership decisions on fleet maintenance & where they have left US National Security.

"Surface Forces: USN Maintenance Mess

1/
July 11, 2025: The U.S. Navy is no longer able to maintain or repair its ships. In an earlier economy move, all the navy ship repair and maintenance facilities were sold off. The worst aspect of this was the loss of skilled shipyard workers. ...

2/
... The older ones were retiring and the navy did little to recruit and train replacements. Now, as the United States strives to expand its navy and repair and upgrade current ships, it finds that the resources are lacking. There are no easy solutions.

3/
Read 14 tweets
Jul 16
Well now, the reality of Russian casualty ratios from drones and 💩casualty evacuation in the Russo-Ukrainian War begins to emerge.

'Some people' 🙄 have been talking about this for literally years and how it has gotten worse over time.

1/
This is what I said in April 2022 when the "professional" Russian Army was around and FPV drones weren't.

2/
This is what I was posting in December 2023.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 10
This Ukrainian fiber optic FPV drone attack underlines that 20th century style tactical truck based logistics are obsolete in the age of mass, cheap, 50 km FPV drones.

Drones costing less than $2,000 are killing trucks costing over $150,000.

US military versus Drones🧵
1/
The issue of Western truck production versus drone production is stark

Ukraine in 2025 is making ~12,000 FPV and grenade dropping class small drones a month.

The peak annual US Army FMTV production was in 2005 for a total of 8,168 trucks.

Those trucks are 20 years old.

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21st Century truck logistics in the age of 50 km unjammable fiber optic guided FPV drones requires systematic combat service support engineering to build vehicle "net tunnels" to protect from powered and persistent drones.

3/

Read 6 tweets
Jul 2
Injection molding requires an industrial scale, and above all, _reliable_, supply chain to be more efficient that 3D printing.

This is in a lot of 3D/AM industrial guru papers on the transition from low thousands a year production to the tens of thousands scale.

1/
Injection molding gets you a lot of one thing cheaply. Think lots of fiber optic guided FPV drones, which are immune to radio jamming.

3D/AM allows a lot of modifications to meet the changing requirements of war. Think rapidly evolving Ukrainian interceptor drone designs.

2/
The issue for Ukraine versus Russia is Ukraine has to more widely disperse its industrial base because Russia has a bigger cruise and 500 km(+) ballistic missile production base.

Ukraine's need to disperse production and evolve drones means 3D/AM is a better industrial fit.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jul 1
Ukrainian mass production of FPV interceptor drones has reduced the cost per shot from $7,200 to $5,800.

The US Coyte II drone interceptor runs to $100K a shot.

The cost difference was the Big/Expensive/Few platform & missile cult was in charge of developing the Coyote II.
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The Coyote I was a propeller interceptor like the Ukrainian FPV's, but it wasn't "enough" for the higher end drone threat like the TB-2 Bayraktar.

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So the US military abandoned kinetic solutions the lower end drone threat.

And it has to pretend that high power microwave weapons and jamming will be the answer to fiber optic guided FPV's at weed height and grenade dropping drones behind tree lines.

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Read 4 tweets

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