Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 19 8 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
While "first reports are always wrong," there is more good news here than possibly two Backfire bombers (Tu-22m3) detonating under this reported AFU drone strike.

Russian missile tech🧵⬇️
1/7
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While some media sources are claiming that either Tu-22m3 or a fuel depot were hit. The smoke rising from is the wrong color for that.

Burning jet fuel is black.

The smoke rising from the VKS Soltsi military airfield isn't black. What's burning?
2/7
en.defence-ua.com/events/a_drone…
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The answer is a bunch of these. These are Kh-22 (or X-22) anti-ship cruise missiles used on Cold War Backfire bomber to hunt USN Carriers.

Their warheads use the plastic explosive known as RDX.

The smoke over Soltsi military airfield is consistent with burning RDX.

3/7
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While my "Google-fu" is weak. It is good enough to get a map of Soltsi military airfield.

There are dozens of Kh-22 & Kh-22 sized cylinders racked in the open to the left of the close up image below - a sitting duck target.

4/7
google.com/maps/place/Sol…

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The Kh-22 are usually stored unfuelled, because it has the same hypergolic propellent as the S-200's 5V28 SAM.

Propellant:

Storable Hypergolic Fuel: Tonka (TG-02) aka R-Stoff ( 50% triethylamine and 50% xylidine )

Oxidizer: AK-20K aka red fuming nitric acid (RFNA)

5/7 Image
The TG-02/AK-20K propellent mixture burns black as coal, just like jet fuel.

And since there were no reported evacuation orders at Soltsi.

Which is a absolute requirement for a TG-02/AK-20K fire, because no one is going to survive breathing unfiltered RFNA particulates.

6/7
Unfuelled Kh-22 missiles were destroyed in this drone strike at Soltsi military airfield.

Given a range of more than 650 km from the border with Ukraine for this strike.

We are seeing a new generation of precise AFU drone munitions arriving.

7/7 End
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-22
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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 18
Looks like DC's "de-escalation" faction that is centered on the National Security Council is out in force the last couple of days in conducting another campaign to trash the Ukrainian arms.

You can tell by all the logical fallacies & fictitious data.

1/washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
I mean, look at this:



2/nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/…
...and compare it to this report on the shortages of whole blood in Moscow hospitals due to the superior battlefield weapon effects of US/Turkish cluster munitions in Ukraine.🙄

AFU vs RuAF casualty ratios matter.🤦‍♂️

3/
Read 19 tweets
Aug 10
This Ukrainian article titled "Russians in Ukraine's south cannot cope with huge number of wounded" is useful in showing how Russia is using occupied hospital facilities to the exclusion of medical treatment of Ukrainian civilians.

RuAF CasEvac🧵

1/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…
This Reddit post has a captured Rostov-on-the-Don aerial evac-point video that is notable for the lack of medical support.

1. No intravenous fluids
2. No obvious medical people working
3. No food, just water
4. Thin/Malnourished RuAF wounded

2/
reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVi…
5. No shelter whatsoever from the sun, wind, jet blast, or rain.
6. The stated cause for the hours long delay was a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow.

3/


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Read 11 tweets
Aug 8
Now we know where RuAF is now shipping its fuel & ammo now that Crimean ground lines of communication (AKA bridges) have been interdicted.⬇️

A Russian logistical desperation🧵
1/
The Russians are now dependent on occupied Ukrainian civilian ISO container export facilities at Berdyansk to bring in supplies to their Army.

2/

We should be looking for a similar Russian SAM battery reinforcement for the port of Mariupol.

RuAF truck convoys from both ports are the only real option for the next month or so to maintain their current front lines in Zaporizhzhya.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Aug 7
This is a fine working example of Russian "Reflexive Control" information operations at work in the American media⬇️

1/4
I've been referencing this Timothy L. Thomas' article "Russia’s Reflexive Control Theory and the Military" as it is the seminal work on the subject of explain how Russia pollutes non-Russian info-spaces.

This is the killer 'graph from the article.

2/4

https://t.co/42Sf5khiRb
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American media outlets and DC think tank types are both extraordinarily vulnerable to such filter control efforts.

This is Timothy L. Thomas' take on how successful the Russian have been with the DC "Defense Analysts" in the nuclear arms/arms control policy making community.
3/4 Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 7
The @TheDeadDistrict X-account has a real point here about the difference between Ukrainian trenches and Russian ones.

Simply put, the Ukrainians have competent, late WW2, Soviet era trench works and the Russian Army does not.

Russian fortifications🧵
1/
https://t.co/vWNIVCqWjR

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I did this thread on July 2nd 2023 pointing out the lack of deployed barbed wire in Russian trench fighting positions.


2/
The Ukrainian trench fighting positions @TheDeadDistrict showed in his photos were very much the the two man fighting & crew served weapon positions ahead of the fighting trench - "Bracelet & Bangles" - characteristic of late WW2 field fortifications.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Aug 4
Given the spot where explosions and gunfire have been reported from.

This is likely Ukrainian boat-drones at work.

Russian Fuel Logistics 🧵
1/6
The @christogrozev account is reporting Russian social media blaming this attack on the Kerch Bridge and a tanker on Ukrainian boat-drones.

2/6

And specifically saying a coastal oil tanker shuttling from Syria to Crimea has been struck.

H/T @Maks_NAFO_FELLA & @UKikaski

3/6
https://t.co/T3MruDqX0R

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Read 8 tweets

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