Expanding upon the ongoing dialogue about utilizing drones for mine detection, questions have emerged regarding the practicality of employing thermal imaging. In this thread, I will discuss this matter by referencing a specialized manual dedicated to this topic.🧵Thread:
2/ To begin, it's essential to consider a few key aspects. Mines aren't always placed on a top of soil - some remain hidden, making them invisible to drones. This distinction is important, emphasizing the need to refrain from regarding this method as panacea
3/ The parameters for this presentation are outlined as follows:
Temperature: Range of +18 to +20°C (64.4 to 68°F)
Vegetation: Moderate level
Time: 21:00 (9 PM) local time
Altitude: Varied and indicated for each scenario in the image.
Drone: DJI Mavic 3T
Deployment time: 11 AM
4/ In this specific instance, both mine #1 (ТМ-62 М) and mine #2 (ТМ-62П3) are clearly visible when positioned atop the soil. They exhibit a noticeable contrast in terms of shape and color compared to their surroundings.
5/ In this scenario, AP mine #3 (MOН-100) stands out significantly and can be readily identified, whereas the smaller AP mines — mine #4 (ПМН-2) and mine #5 (МС-3) — are diminished visually, even at an altitude of 50 meters, and look the same.
6/ Mines that are remotely deployed, such as mine #6 (ПОМ-3), can also be detected effectively. In this specific instance, the distinct shape of the mine is clearly apparent to the drone operator. The altitude in this case ranges from 16 to 25 meters.
7/ Mine detection is also achievable based on features that deviate from natural object forms. Nevertheless, it's noteworthy that this necessitates the operator to possess experience and/or training in order to discern less conspicuous objects.
8/ It should be emphasized that mines with non-metallic enclosures had cooled by the time of testing, in contrast to metallic ones that retained warmth. Notably, both types of mines remained discernible due to distinct temperature signatures relative to the environment.
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Russia's response to electronic warfare wasn't a single solution. It evolved along two major paths: fiber-optic drones and mesh networks. This thread summarizes Frontelligence Insight analysis based on OSINT data and a report by the Center for Defense Reforms. Thread🧵
2/ One of Russia's first successful adaptations to counter-UAV measures was the adoption of fiber-optic drones. Replacing the radio link with a wire made it EW-resistant. Per Russian sources, fiber-optic FPVs accounted for up to 60% of FPVs in some frontline areas by early 2026
3/ Take the "KVN" - Russia's widely used fiber-optic FPV drone. Produced at around 50,000 units monthly, the Center for Defense Reforms (CDR) estimates it requires 6–12 million km of optical fiber annually. Including other drones, demand could exceed 50 million km per year.
When it comes to the AFU estimates of Russian losses, they're not far from reality, at least in 2026. Russia's own internal reporting indicates close to ~1,000 casualties per day on average, with roughly half or more being KIA (we classify most MIAs as KIA).
🧵Short thread:
2/ We think Ukraine's 2022-2023 reporting undermined the credibility of its figures. By 2026, however, its estimates are much closer to reality. Ukraine's reported RU personnel losses generally align with the combined Russian KIA, WIA, and MIA totals, usually within 10-20% margin
3/ In some cases we've observed a 30-35% gap between Russian reporting and Ukraine's official figures. However, when averaged over year, the overall picture aligns more closely. It's not perfect, but for a belligerent party reporting enemy loss, it's quite accurate
Ukraine has just struck multiple Wildberries logistics hubs. One of them, in St. Petersburg, is engulfed in flames, disrupting Russia's second-largest city.
Here's one of Russia's largest 24/7 news websites (auto-translated). This is the virtual reality many Russians live in.
2/ The only mention of the attack is a brief report claiming that drones were shot down. Here's the auto-translated version:
The crisis in Crimea continues, with conditions worsening. After Crimea's occupation head, Sergey Aksyonov, claimed steps were being taken to address the situation in a recent Telegram post, hundreds of locals flooded the comments, challenging his narrative. 🧵Translations:
2/ "Please, just do something! Have you forgotten about northern Crimea? Have you abandoned the people? Soon people will be starving, and we are already close to breaking down! At least say something! Declare an evacuation, do anything at all! This is not life, this is suffering"
3/ "I wonder if Aksyonov (governor) would be willing to bring his family and come stay with us in Dzhankoy, sitting through the complete blackout that has already lasted a week, while telling us to hold on until mid-August."
The situation in Crimea is becoming critical. As authorities remain largely silent, residents are flooding the Telegram channel of the head of Crimea with complaints about power outages, communication disruptions, fuel shortages, and water supply issues. Thread with translations:
1/ "Why is gasoline so expensive? It's twice the price compared to the mainland! Are people here supposed to be twice as rich or something? 😳"
2/ "The city of Dzhankoy has been without electricity for more than 24 hours. If the situation does not improve in the near future, a collective complaint will be drafted and sent to Moscow tomorrow."
The grooming of Orban's regime as a Trojan horse inside the EU and NATO is no longer speculative: it's now evidence-based, confirmed by leaked Budapest-Moscow communications. Agentstvo reports that roughly half of all Russian embassy staff maintain ties to intelligence services:
2/ The EU officially identifies Russia as one of its primary security threats. Yet Orban has been systematically distancing Hungary from both the EU and NATO, deteriorating relations with neighbors including Ukraine, while growing increasingly reliant on Russian influence.
3/ Moscow has no genuine interest in Hungary itself, or in the country's long-term wellbeing. What it wants is a lever - to undermine EU institutions, erode European support for Ukraine, and seed distrust between member states toward one of their own EU members and NATO allies