Tatarigami_UA Profile picture
Aug 19, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Expanding upon the ongoing dialogue about utilizing drones for mine detection, questions have emerged regarding the practicality of employing thermal imaging. In this thread, I will discuss this matter by referencing a specialized manual dedicated to this topic.🧵Thread: Image
2/ To begin, it's essential to consider a few key aspects. Mines aren't always placed on a top of soil - some remain hidden, making them invisible to drones. This distinction is important, emphasizing the need to refrain from regarding this method as panacea
3/ The parameters for this presentation are outlined as follows:

Temperature: Range of +18 to +20°C (64.4 to 68°F)
Vegetation: Moderate level
Time: 21:00 (9 PM) local time
Altitude: Varied and indicated for each scenario in the image.
Drone: DJI Mavic 3T
Deployment time: 11 AM Image
4/ In this specific instance, both mine #1 (ТМ-62 М) and mine #2 (ТМ-62П3) are clearly visible when positioned atop the soil. They exhibit a noticeable contrast in terms of shape and color compared to their surroundings. Image
5/ In this scenario, AP mine #3 (MOН-100) stands out significantly and can be readily identified, whereas the smaller AP mines — mine #4 (ПМН-2) and mine #5 (МС-3) — are diminished visually, even at an altitude of 50 meters, and look the same. Image
6/ Mines that are remotely deployed, such as mine #6 (ПОМ-3), can also be detected effectively. In this specific instance, the distinct shape of the mine is clearly apparent to the drone operator. The altitude in this case ranges from 16 to 25 meters. Image
7/ Mine detection is also achievable based on features that deviate from natural object forms. Nevertheless, it's noteworthy that this necessitates the operator to possess experience and/or training in order to discern less conspicuous objects. Image
8/ It should be emphasized that mines with non-metallic enclosures had cooled by the time of testing, in contrast to metallic ones that retained warmth. Notably, both types of mines remained discernible due to distinct temperature signatures relative to the environment. Image
9/ If you found this thread valuable, please support by liking and retweeting the first message of the thread. Your engagement enables me to provide better materials more frequently.

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

May 6
How bad is Russia’s war chest? Has the country entered stagflation? Why does it fear falling oil prices, but not a crash? And how is the tariff war hurting Russia?
These questions — and more — are explored in a special interview with Russian economist Vladimir Milov.

🧵Thread: Image
2/ Tariff wars:

China’s economic slowdown has closed its market to many Russian products, hitting major industries hard. The China-focused Russian coal industry is struggling, and Russian non-energy and non-commodity exports are down by about a quarter compared to pre-2022 levels
3/ Tariff war will obviously exacerbate the Chinese slowdown. The slower Chinese growth, the less market for Russian goods. Share of China in the total Russian exports is as high as a third now - we're heavily dependent on this market and its well-being.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 19
Thread🧵

1/ The exhaustion of Russia’s vehicle fleet is becoming increasingly evident. The reduced use of armored vehicles and the growing reliance on civilian: including motorcycles, golf carts, and vans, continues to signal a degradation in Russian maneuvering capabilities.
2/ During the winter, outside of Kursk, Russia achieved mostly tactical gains, notably in Kharkiv Oblast, the Chasiv Yar area and Kurakhove–Velyka Novosilka axis. While these advances have been troubling for Ukraine, Russia has so far failed to capitalize on them strategically.
3/ Despite slow progress, Russia still retains the resources and capability to conduct active offensive operations through the summer and fall of 2025. However, as I noted in my analysis last year, the diminishing returns will determine whether Russia will continue this war
Read 7 tweets
Apr 10
While our team continues working on the latest updates, here are a few updates on the current state of the frontline:

1/ Despite holding the advantage along much of the frontline, Russia’s winter campaign yielded limited results - indicating Ukraine’s situation is not dire
2/ The Pokrovsk area now appears more stable than in February. At that time, Russian forces had established a foothold in Zvirove, with deeper advances into Pokrovsk looking imminent. Since then, not only have the Russians stalled, but they have actually lost some ground.
3/ The overall composition and number of Russian forces near Sumy oblast currently seem insufficient to support a large-scale offensive operation deep into the region.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 30
One of the biggest problems of this war is that Ukraine and the West haven’t clearly defined what "winning" looks like. This has allowed the Russians to present the "Istanbul Agreements" as the only viable negotiation framework, due to the absence of a well-defined alternative.
2/ The "Victory Plan" presented by Zelensky is not a true negotiation framework, and it didn’t resonate with the previous administration, let alone the current White House administration. Of course, there are alternative options, such as Russia retreating to 1991 borders
3/ The problem is that Russia won't do that, and there is no realistic enforcement mechanism, short of intervention. The United States isn’t going to bomb Russia. This raises the question: what does a "desired outcome," based on the realities on the ground, actually look like?
Read 8 tweets
Mar 25
Almost every day, we hear about strikes against targets inside Russia, but we rarely get the full picture of their actual impact on the war. Radio Liberty and Frontelligence Insight have joined efforts to analyze hundreds of data points to answer this question.

🧵Thread Image
2/ Our research covered the period from September 2024 to February 2025, divided into two sections: strikes on military targets, infrastructure, and on the energy sector. We found that strikes on Russia’s energy sector caused at least $658 million in damage over ~6 months
3/ The real damage to the Russian energy sector and the economy as a whole may be higher. In at least 67 out of 100 cases, Ukrainian strikes were successful, while in another 33 cases the result of the attacks remains unknown or it is impossible to prove Ukraine's involvement. Image
Read 23 tweets
Mar 21
Kursk Offensive: A Preliminary Assessment by Frontelligence Insight.
A condensed version of report for X. 🧵Thread:

1/ With Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Sudzha, the operation is clearly approaching its conclusion though it is not yet entirely over.Image
2/ To assess the operation, not in isolation, but within the broader context of the war, we broke down the Kursk operation into 3 key questions: whether its geopolitical objectives were met, whether the attrition rate was favorable, and whether it achieved battlefield success
3/ To determine equipment attrition, we analyzed data from OSINT analyst @naalsio26, who tracks losses across multiple frontlines. Our graphs show losses from August to March but are not exhaustive, as they exclude some retreat-related losses. The cut-off date was March 10. Image
Read 20 tweets

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