Just want to flag an obvious error (there are many non-obvious per usual for his posts) in this post from @cremieuxrecueil : controlling for education of adoptive parents isn't enough because adoptive parents are either self-selected *or* screened. cremieux.xyz/p/brief-data-p…
Put another way, the prevalence of any trait X is different among adoptive parents of educational level Y because adoptive parents are either (1) married to one bio parent or (2) screened by an agency as a suitable home for the unrelated child
Thus, controlling for educational status, variation in home environment is likely to be compressed among adoptive parents. We can see this in ACS where adoptive kids report less variation in HH income or parental marital status by household head educational attainment.
I dunno who @cremieuxrecueil is IRL, somebody said he was this person, in general "long tedious medium post arguing that actually functional life outcomes are just a product of genetics i.e. race" is not something I respond to on the basis of on-its-face dumbness.
But here I felt it worth noting simply because he cites so many adoption studies in the same wrong way.

Folks, if you think parental quality doesn't matter, go try to test the IQs of children murdered by their parents.
"Yes but what we mean is once you drop all the variation, the remaining variation doesn't explain much."

*rolls eyes*
Sorry, someone said it was this person, which fits topically and thematically, but idk scholar.google.com/citations?user…
Your regular reminder that genetics explain 20-80% of intelligence and intelligence explains 10-60% of income variance (range from various studies exploring this) so genetics explain between 2 and 48% of income variance, meaning most income variance is in fact not genetic.
(and also twin studies aren't a valid design in general)
or rather, their design isn't telling you even approximately what you might think. see here for an in-depth example:
What's very irritating in all this is you've got a lot of people, broadly on the left, who simply cannot stomach the idea that intelligence might have some real measurable content which causes different life outcomes, and that this might be partly genetic...
... and then people like this broadly on something like "the right" who then want to argue that basically your entire life was decided in your genes and by genes we basically mean your racial phenotype.
When the credible and boring argument "genes have some meaningful influence, we don't know exactly how much, but also other stuff matters a lot too, and race accounts for only a quite small part of intelligence-relevant genetic variance" is just ignored
Like all the debate about "racial differences in intelligence" elides the fact that within-race variance in intelligence is *orders of magnitude* larger than differences predicted by racial phenotype. Even if there is a racial difference, it's trivial next to other variables.
Like if you take % of variance in IQ relevant genes predicted by race X % of IQ explained by those genes X % of income (or other life outcome) explained by IQ, your race component of that outcome is gonna be small even if individual shares are decently sized estimates
@cremieuxrecueil If you won't even do your interlocutors the common courtesy of introducing yourself, why should we assume you have any good faith at any stage of the discussion at all?

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More from @lymanstoneky

Aug 15
this is really just such a golden example of how many peoples idea of "conservative" is still trying to conserve basically post-enlightenment industrial-era gender norms; there's nothing "traditional" here, just trying to stop the acid at 50% melted.
step 1 in destroying the traditional family was creating the idea that men worked outside the home to earn the income while women stayed home and didn't produce

folks, that is not how subsistence agriculture has ever worked anywhere.
this strict division of labor is not the traditional family; it is the corrosive acid which across generations has melted away that family and left us with, now, basically no functional family model at all.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 1
LCMS synodical convention is in lunch recess SO LET'S TALK ABOUT WEIGHTS AND MEASURES IN THE BIBLE!
actually nvm, gonna hold off on this one a bit longer
Okay, we are gonna do SOME weights and measures.

Exodus 38 gives us an important set of weights and measures. It says every Hebrew male paid a beqah, a half-shekel of silver, in a temple tax, and that added up to 100 shekels and 1775 shekels.
Read 32 tweets
Jul 31
Long time followers know I'm a huge fan of @TidesHistory and also believe the Bible to be a valid and correct historic account. So it was with mingled excitement and trepidation I saw Wyman had two episodes on Late Bronze/Iron Age Israel and Judah.

Here I'll do a review of them!
So after just a single generation, the unity breaks. Judah keeps the inheritance basis, Israel doesn't. Israel burns through dynasties left and right. Judah keeps the line of David unbroken until the very end. Israel is a wealthy tribal monarchy, Judah a poor kingship.
The collapse of David/Solomon's military prowess opens a vaccuum, and Shoshenq in Egypt is also ticked off that some of Egypt's spice trade gets interrupted by Israel, Edom, nomads, etc.
Read 98 tweets
Jun 23
No, I've shown that subsidies DO work, but that the costs are so huge that they are prohibitive. Having a baby costs a woman hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars of lost lifetime income! To the extent we offset that, fertility does rise: it's just so huge though!
Mommy penalties reduce women's incomes by something like 20-60%. If you assume that's a loss of, say, $15,000/yr for 18 years, that's a preset-value opportunity cost of $250,000 without even considering actual budgetary costs.
USDA says 0-17 budget costs are like $300k. add in some college costs and it gets even higher. total cost of raising a child in US is plausibly $600k for a statistically average family. a BIG child allowance, say $5,000 year, offsets like.... 12% of that?
Read 6 tweets
Jun 23
Subjective wellbeing responds to both absolute and relative status, and so to maintain the same wellbeing people need not only rising absolute standard of living but stable effort inputs for relative standard of living.
Now, as it happens, this isn't what the thriving index measures either. The figure below shows how many weeks a person would have to work at median full-time wages for their earnings to equal the full income of a median 25-55 married couple.
You can see that it's never really been possible since 1) married couples have almost always had large shares of second-earners 2) people have lots of non-labor/non-earnings income.

But while it's always been unattainable on one income, it did get less attainable 1979-2002
Read 12 tweets
Jun 23
The Mughal Dynasty was one of the most brutally extractive regime sever documented in recorded economic history in terms of inequality vs. subsistence potential, and very much was a foreign invader.
See here. Spanish-colonized Mexico was worse, but one of very few worse regimes. https://t.co/3o71l23h2pourworldindata.org/income-inequal…
Insufficient data on the Delhi Sultanate re: extractive intensity. But it's not some big history mystery that the Delhi Sultanate was indeed founded by foreign conquerors from outside of South Asia.
Read 60 tweets

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