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Aug 21 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
**New NBC News/Des Moines Register IA GOP Caucus poll**

Trump 42%
DeSantis 19%
Scott 9%
Haley 6%
Pence 6%
Christie 5%
Ramaswamy 4%
Burgum 2%
Hurd 1%
Here's how Trump's 23-point lead compares to other leaders in the Des Moines Register poll at this same point: Image
In 2016, evangelicals made up 64% of the IA GOP caucus electorate, with Ted Cruz carrying them 34-22% over Trump, and Marco Rubio at 21%.

But in our new poll, Trump leads by 27 among evangelicals: Image
Why could the IA race still be volatile? More than 1/2 say their minds aren't made up and several Trump foes are both very well-known and very well-liked: Image
By a 65-26% margin, Iowa Republicans don't believe Trump has committed serious crimes.

Notably, our poll was conducted as the news of his latest indictment played out last week. In the portion conducted before the news broke, he led by 18 points. After it broke, he led by 25.
Favorable/Unfavorable among evangelicals:

Trump 74%/25%
DeSantis 73%/19%
Scott 66/9%
Haley 54%/23%
Burgum 45%/12%
Pence 43%/51%
Ramaswamy 41%/21%
Christie 23%/63%
Hutchinson 18%/30%
Hurd 12%/18%

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More from @SteveKornacki

Jun 25
New NBC New poll - '24 GOP WH

Trump 51%
DeSantis 22%
Pence 7%
Christie 5%
Haley 4%
Ramaswamy 3%
Scott 3%
Hutchinson 2%

---
General Election Match-ups

Biden 49%
Trump 45%

Biden 47%
DeSantis 47%
Among Republicans: Positive/Negative view of....

Trump 65 / 23%
DeSantis 60 / 17%
Scott 42 / 6%
Haley 41 / 13%
Pence 33 / 37%
Christie 15 / 42%
Among *all* voters - positive/negative view of...

Biden 39/48%
DeSantis 30/46%
Trump 34/56%
Read 6 tweets
May 31
Chris Christie, set to enter the race next Tuesday, probably faces the steepest hill of any of the '24 GOP candidates.

In this week's Monmouth national poll, nearly half - 47% - of GOP voters viewed him unfavorably, and only 21% favorably - by *far* the worst of anyone tested: Image
One theory of Christie's candidacy is that it's not so much about winning as trying to settle a score with Trump and win back respect from those who remember his early Trump endorsement and staunch defense of Trump through most of his presidency.
To do this, he'd first need to make the main debate stage - which is very uncertain, given his poll numbers. But if he does, he's telegraphing an intent to go after Trump with a focus, relentlessness and determination that no one showed in '16.
Read 7 tweets
May 30
Monmouth national GOP WH poll [open-ended -- respondents weren't read list of candidates]:

Trump 43%
DeSantis 19%
Pence 3%
Scott 3%
Cruz 1%
Haley 1%
Paul 1%
Ramaswamy 1%

* * *
December '22

DeSantis 39%
Trump 26%
Pence 2%
Cruz 1%
Haley 1%
Scott <1%

monmouth.edu/polling-instit…
Favorable/Unfavorable among Republicans:

Trump: 77%/17%
DeSantis: 73%/12%
Haley: 47%/16%
Pence: 46%/35%
Scott: 44%/8%
Youngkin: 31%/8%
Ramaswamy: 22%/6%
Christie: 21%/47%
Hutchinson: 17%/14%
Sununu: 15%/15%
Strongest chance to beat Biden -- Which is the closest to your view?

Trump definitely strongest 45%
Trump probably strongest 18%
Another Republican probably stronger 19%
Another Republican definitely stronger 13%
Read 5 tweets
Apr 27
Our new NBC poll on cultural/social attitudes gets at some of the nuances in how people think about these topics and how difficult it is to nail down exactly where public opinion is on some hot button issues. For example: Affirmative action...
In our poll, we offered to choices:
A) Affirmative action still needed/should continue as long as there aren't rigid quotas: 53%
B) Affirmative action has gone too far and discriminates against whites and Asian Americans: 42%

This includes 53% of independents choosing A. But...
...it's interesting to compare these responses to what happened when affirmative action was actually on the ballot in California in 2020 - as Joe Biden carried the state by 29 points. Then, a well-funded campaign to restore public sector affirmative action programs failed 57-43%.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 23
New NBC News poll (4/14-18):

2024 GOP WH
Trump 46%
DeSantis 31%
Pence 6%
Haley 3%
Scott 3%
Hutchinson 3%
Ramaswamy 2%
Joe Biden - Job Performance
Approve 41%
Disapprove 54%

January:
Approve 45%
Disapprove 50%
Do you think Joe Biden should…

Run for president 26%
Not run for president 70%

Do you think Donald Trump should…

Run for president 35%
Not run for president 60%
Read 4 tweets
Apr 5
Polls are closed in Wisconsin and now the waiting begins. FWIW, last November we got our very first vote report at 9:16 EST and 10% was released by 9:30.
And there's the first report - tiny batch of just under 2k from Waukesha, with Kelly winning them 52-48%.
Again, a tiny scattering votes in right now, but from two critical counties: Kelly (conservative) now with 59% in Waukesha, where he'll probably need somewhere in the high 60s; and Protasiewicz with 79% of about 2k in Dane, where Dems are banking on proportionally massive turnout
Read 15 tweets

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