Here's how Trump's 23-point lead compares to other leaders in the Des Moines Register poll at this same point:
In 2016, evangelicals made up 64% of the IA GOP caucus electorate, with Ted Cruz carrying them 34-22% over Trump, and Marco Rubio at 21%.
But in our new poll, Trump leads by 27 among evangelicals:
Why could the IA race still be volatile? More than 1/2 say their minds aren't made up and several Trump foes are both very well-known and very well-liked:
By a 65-26% margin, Iowa Republicans don't believe Trump has committed serious crimes.
Notably, our poll was conducted as the news of his latest indictment played out last week. In the portion conducted before the news broke, he led by 18 points. After it broke, he led by 25.
Chris Christie, set to enter the race next Tuesday, probably faces the steepest hill of any of the '24 GOP candidates.
In this week's Monmouth national poll, nearly half - 47% - of GOP voters viewed him unfavorably, and only 21% favorably - by *far* the worst of anyone tested:
One theory of Christie's candidacy is that it's not so much about winning as trying to settle a score with Trump and win back respect from those who remember his early Trump endorsement and staunch defense of Trump through most of his presidency.
To do this, he'd first need to make the main debate stage - which is very uncertain, given his poll numbers. But if he does, he's telegraphing an intent to go after Trump with a focus, relentlessness and determination that no one showed in '16.
Our new NBC poll on cultural/social attitudes gets at some of the nuances in how people think about these topics and how difficult it is to nail down exactly where public opinion is on some hot button issues. For example: Affirmative action...
In our poll, we offered to choices:
A) Affirmative action still needed/should continue as long as there aren't rigid quotas: 53%
B) Affirmative action has gone too far and discriminates against whites and Asian Americans: 42%
This includes 53% of independents choosing A. But...
...it's interesting to compare these responses to what happened when affirmative action was actually on the ballot in California in 2020 - as Joe Biden carried the state by 29 points. Then, a well-funded campaign to restore public sector affirmative action programs failed 57-43%.
Polls are closed in Wisconsin and now the waiting begins. FWIW, last November we got our very first vote report at 9:16 EST and 10% was released by 9:30.
And there's the first report - tiny batch of just under 2k from Waukesha, with Kelly winning them 52-48%.
Again, a tiny scattering votes in right now, but from two critical counties: Kelly (conservative) now with 59% in Waukesha, where he'll probably need somewhere in the high 60s; and Protasiewicz with 79% of about 2k in Dane, where Dems are banking on proportionally massive turnout