Thread by @MuKappa

Rosatom is still not sanctioned. @RUSI_org published a report analyzing Russia’s nuclear energy exports, an industry that is dominated by the state-owned conglomerate, Rosatom (). 1/ static.rusi.org/RUSI-Russian-E…

It was followed up with a note on the world’s dependence on Russia’s U-235, isotope of uranium necessary for nuclear energy and weapons production (). 2/static.rusi.org/RUSI-Russian-E…

However, neither of the pieces address the elephant in the room – Rosatom’s creeping world monopoly on the uranium market and how it was achieved.
Is Russia the largest or second largest producer of uranium in the world? 3/

No. In 2022 Russia was the sixth largest producer lagging far behind Kazakhstan, the world’s largest producer supplying 43% of the global output. 4/ world-nuclear.org/information-li…

Despite its nonleading position in production, Russia still boasts to be controlling the second largest uranium reserves in the world through Rosatom. Let’s discuss how it was achieved. 5/

Earlier this year Russian state media announced Rosatom’s rising dominance on the global uranium market.

However, is it the case? It is complicated. 6/

For about the past decade and a half Rosatom gradually expanded their ownership in Kazakh mines through joint ventures with Kazatomprom, Kazakh state-owned nuclear energy company. However, it was not done directly not to raise concerns. 7/

Without getting into much detail, one of the companies key to the capture was Uranium One. In 2007 the company acquired UrAsia Energy and with it stakes in three uranium mines in Kazakhstan. At the time Uranium One was still Canadian. 8/

However, in 2009 Rosatom acquired a 17% share in the company in exchange for stakes in another mine in Kazakhstan. In 2010 Rosatom expanded their share in Uranium One to 51% in exchange for stakes in two additional mines in Kazakhstan. 9/

So, what started as mixed Russian and Canadian presence in those mines ended under Rosatom’s control. By 2013 Uranium One became a wholly owned subsidiary of Rosatom. 10/

Through the subsidiary Rosatom still owns a uranium mine in the US, albeit a mothballed one ().
Given that Uranium One had presence on the US market Rosatom’s acquisition had to be approved by the US authorities. 11/neimagazine.com/news/newsurani…

The approval was controversial and was used by Trump on the campaign trail against Hillary Clinton in 2016, given her and Bill Clinton’s direct and indirect involvement (). 12/thehill.com/policy/nationa…

The Hill writes: “Then-Attorney General Eric Holder was among the Obama administration officials joining Hillary Clinton on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States at the time the Uranium One deal was approved. 13/

Multiple current and former government officials told The Hill they did not know whether the FBI or DOJ ever alerted committee members to the criminal activity they uncovered.” 14/

The NYT also reported $2.85 million in donations and speech fees from the Russian to the Clinton Foundation. The NYT writes: “Whether the donations played any role in the approval of the uranium deal is unknown. 15/

But the episode underscores the special ethical challenges presented by the Clinton Foundation, headed by a former president who relied heavily on foreign cash to accumulate $250 million in assets even as his wife helped steer American foreign policy as secretary of state,… 16/

…presiding over decisions with the potential to benefit the foundation’s donors.” (). However, the “scandal” was later dismissed (). 17/nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/…
bloomberg.com/view/articles/…

I venture to guess that Rosatom’s primary interest was not in the US mines when they acquired Uranium One – it was about Kazakhstan. 18/

Interestingly Bill Clinton’s proximity to Kazakh uranium starts in 2005 when travelled to Kazakhstan with Frank Giustra, the founder of UrAsia that was acquired by Uranium One in 2007. 19/

In a 2008 article, the NYT reports the “the former president knew that Mr. Giustra had mining interests in Kazakhstan but was unaware of “any particular efforts” and did nothing to help.” 20/

After the trip to Kazakhstan, “Mr. Clinton’s charitable foundation received its own windfall: a $31.3 million donation from Mr. Giustra” (). 21/nytimes.com/2008/01/31/us/…

The ever-increasing Rosatom’s ownership of Kazakh uranium culminated with the acquisition of the largest mine in Kazakhstan, Byudonovskoe with a potential output in excess 6,000 tons a year. 22/

The details of the transaction are unclear and are yet to be disclosed (). The acquisition occurred in 2022, however was first reported only in May 2023. 23/rus.azattyq.org/a/kak-samoe-kr…

Bloomberg reported that “the deal was pushed by Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund against the wishes of the leadership at miner Kazatomprom” (). 24/bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Recall that since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Russia has also been pressuring Kazakhstan by various means including oil pipeline disruptions, offhanded invasion threats, cruise missile launches against Ukraine from the Caspian Sea, water… 25/

…supply disruptions, etc. Did any of those events impact the decision to sell the soon to be largest uranium mine in the world to Russia?
Direct ownership of mines is not the only way Rosatom maintains a stranglehold over Kazakh uranium. 26/

Naturally occurring uranium is less than 1% U-235 isotope and requires enrichment. Though Russia produces only 2-3 thousand tonnes of uranium a year, its annual enrichment capacity is at 24.3 thousand tonnes (). 27/ world-nuclear.org/information-li…

Whereas despite having the leading position in production Kazakhstan has no meaningful uranium enrichment capacities (). Due to geographic and logistical constraints most of Kazakh uranium is transported to Russia for enrichment. 28/world-nuclear.org/information-li…

Russia and Kazakhstan had plans to construct a joint enrichment facility in Russia, however, for various reasons the plans were scrapped and Kazakhstan was allowed to acquire a 49% share in the Novouralsk enrichment facility in Russia. 29/

In 2020 the Kazakh share in the enrichment facility was sold back to Russia leaving Rosatom in full control over enrichment (). As of the most recent reports 76% of Kazakh uranium was exported to Russia (). 30/world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Kazat…
forbes.kz/economy/energy…

So why is sanctioning Rosatom important?

First, Russia does not shy away from using energy markets as a geopolitical tool. They did it with natural gas supplies to Europe. They will do it on the global uranium market if allowed. 31/

Rosatom plans to expand their presence in Africa as well ().

Second, there are reports that Rosatom supplies Russian weapons manufacturers with critical components abusing it is civilian and unsanctioned status. 32/tass.com/russia/1651987

WaPo reports that ballistic missile, MLRS, unguided bomb, cluster munition, AFV manufacturers are supplied by Rosatom (). 33/washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/…

Third, Rosatom took over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant thuggishly claiming ownership of the facility ().

Could dependence on Russian uranium and enrichment services be reduced to allow for sanctions? 34/pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/…

Dory Castillo-Peters and Frank von Hippel proposed trading uranium for enrichment services, reopening uranium mines and increasing enrichment capacity, uranium conversion, and fuel fabrication (). 35/thebulletin.org/2022/08/us-and…

However, I would also urge D.C. and other Western capitals to be more cognizant of Kazakhstan’s position. Some foreign policy mistakes were made in the past, best not to repeat them. 36/

Considering that Russia’s enmity with the West is unlikely to end in the coming years, Kazakhstan should not become Russia’s nuclear energy policy pillar. 37/

Moreover, China’s economic interests in the region are also expanding, as @PaulGoble1 writes. I recommend reading his note in full: . 38/jamestown.org/program/kazakh…

Currently Kazakhstan is considering bids for a proposed nuclear power plant (). Rosatom placed their bid as well and should they win, Russia’s presence on the global nuclear market will solidify. 39/astanatimes.com/2023/08/nuclea…

Hence, it would be prudent to consider options to aid Kazakhstan is reducing dependence on Russia’s enrichment facilities either through construction of such facilities in Kazakhstan or developing a viable trade route bypassing Russia for unprocessed uranium. 40/

Also, more details should also be requested about the acquisition of the Byudonovskoe mine – previously such transactions included “incentives” to some parties involved from across the globe as indicated in the sources I cited above. 41/41