A few thoughts in light of Prigozhin's death.
1️⃣ No matter the cause of the plane crash, everyone will see this as an act of retaliation and retribution, and the Kremlin won't particularly counteract this view. From Putin's perspective, as well as many among the security and military officials, Prigozhin's death should serve as a lesson to any potential successors.
2️⃣ I see no reason why Putin would need Prigozhin in any capacity after the mutiny. The only question was whether to spare his life: I had no doubt that the Kremlin would gradually remove all geopolitical projects out from under him. After the mutiny, Prigozhin ceased to be a partner of the state and under no circumstances could he regain that status. He was also not forgiven. Prigozhin was only needed for some time after the mutiny to smoothly dismantle Wagner in Russia and move it to Belarus under new leadership.
3️⃣ Prigozhin was not a classic traitor: he did not consciously betray his homeland, but rather "lost his mind," having significant merits from Putin's perspective. The question was whether this would be enough to let him live. The issue here is that even if on a personal level, Putin might have been affirmative (which is not a given), on the state level (as Putin perceives it), it would be a vulnerability. And it was. A lively, energetic, and idea-filled Prigozhin was undoubtedly a walking issue for the regime, embodying Putin's political humiliation.
4️⃣ For a significant portion of the politicized, conservative public, Prigozhin's death is a well-deserved outcome. Even those who sympathized with him largely condemned the mutiny, believing it weakened the regime during wartime (and they are right).
5️⃣ Prigozhin's death is a direct threat to everyone who stayed with him till the end or openly supported him. It's more likely to intimidate rather than inspire protests. So, no special reaction should be expected. There will be indignation, but no serious political consequences.
1️⃣ No matter the cause of the plane crash, everyone will see this as an act of retaliation and retribution, and the Kremlin won't particularly counteract this view. From Putin's perspective, as well as many among the security and military officials, Prigozhin's death should serve as a lesson to any potential successors.
2️⃣ I see no reason why Putin would need Prigozhin in any capacity after the mutiny. The only question was whether to spare his life: I had no doubt that the Kremlin would gradually remove all geopolitical projects out from under him. After the mutiny, Prigozhin ceased to be a partner of the state and under no circumstances could he regain that status. He was also not forgiven. Prigozhin was only needed for some time after the mutiny to smoothly dismantle Wagner in Russia and move it to Belarus under new leadership.
3️⃣ Prigozhin was not a classic traitor: he did not consciously betray his homeland, but rather "lost his mind," having significant merits from Putin's perspective. The question was whether this would be enough to let him live. The issue here is that even if on a personal level, Putin might have been affirmative (which is not a given), on the state level (as Putin perceives it), it would be a vulnerability. And it was. A lively, energetic, and idea-filled Prigozhin was undoubtedly a walking issue for the regime, embodying Putin's political humiliation.
4️⃣ For a significant portion of the politicized, conservative public, Prigozhin's death is a well-deserved outcome. Even those who sympathized with him largely condemned the mutiny, believing it weakened the regime during wartime (and they are right).
5️⃣ Prigozhin's death is a direct threat to everyone who stayed with him till the end or openly supported him. It's more likely to intimidate rather than inspire protests. So, no special reaction should be expected. There will be indignation, but no serious political consequences.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
