Some thoughts about the current situation around the Russian war against Ukraine. I am well aware that this post may unsettle Westerners, anger Ukraine, and its allies, and irritate Russia. But I am not here to please people.

1. The West Drifts Towards Pressuring Ukraine into Talks with Russia: The idea that Ukraine should consider talks has gained traction in the West, though this aligns with a strong intention to prevent Russia from “winning.” While Russia is expected to halt its hostilities, it may still receive tangible concessions, likely involving control over territories it currently holds. Proposals vary on issues such as Ukraine’s NATO membership and security guarantees, but all of these ideas appear irrelevant and unrealistic for both Russia and Ukraine at this time. The key takeaway is that this shift reflects Western fatigue with the war and strategic hesitation in supporting Kyiv’s goal of fighting until “victory.” 2. Western Perception of Zelensky’s Plan as Unrealistic: The challenge now is that the West views Zelensky’s victory plan as unrealistic and appears unprepared—militarily, politically, geopolitically, and financially—to commit to it or accept the risks of further escalation, including nuclear. This split within the West regarding Ukraine is likely to deepen.

A few brief thoughts on the situation surrounding the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region. 1/It's now evident that Moscow doesn't have an effective or swift military solution to this situation. Redirecting troops from the main front would mean falling into a well-laid trap. Announcing an urgent mobilization (and it’s not feasible to send new recruits straight into battle) would lead to a conflict with society. I’m not sure Putin is ready for that just yet. This implies that the Ukrainian presence in Russian border regions could persist for months, if not years, and eventually, people may become accustomed to it.

Vladimir Putin has proposed his “peace plan” to Ukraine, purportedly to halt the war. Here are several thoughts on this manoeuvre. 1. This is not a peace plan but a series of maximalist demands directed at the West and Ukraine in exchange for ending hostilities. Moscow offers no concessions; there is no scope for compromise.

In my recent piece in Foreign Affairs, I argued that nobody in Moscow is looking for an exit strategy from the war; rather, people are prepared to fight as long as it takes. Many interpreted this as a thesis that Moscow will not negotiate with Ukraine or agree to a ceasefire. That is not what I was saying. Here are several points to make my understanding more nuanced: 1/
foreignaffairs.com/russia/russias… There is no discussion among senior officials in the Kremlin about negotiating with Ukraine or what compromises could be reached with Kyiv or the West. Decision-making on this issue is monopolized by Putin, and many senior officials simply guess what he wants but do not dare to initiate anything. The common belief is that Russia is winning, advancing successfully, and has the upper hand in Ukraine. Hence, they see no point in talking to the West, let alone Ukraine. 2/

Brief thoughts on the latest reshuffles:

Andrey #Belousov’s appointment as Defense Minister is a direct result of the ongoing conflict between the ministry, as the customer, and the military-industrial complex as the producer (#Shoigu vs #Chemezov/#Manturov). Questioning who won or lost misses the point—#Putin's goal is to enhance arms production effectiveness and optimally meet military needs. In this context, Belousov is a logical choice. 1/5 Importantly, #Belousov will not manage military combat operations; this responsibility will bolster the autonomy of the General Staff. Although the Kremlin confirms that Valery #Gerasimov remains in his post, there are uncertainties about the permanence of his position.2/5

The Federal Penitentiary Service has announced the death of Alexei. However, it remains crucial to await confirmation from his legal team and family. So far, here are my reflections on the matter:

First, politically speaking, it's a difficult truth, but Navalny's decision to return to Russia significantly heightened the risk of a tragic end in prison. Renowned for their austere conditions, Russian penal institutions inflict profound and lasting physical and psychological harm on inmates, effectively maiming their lives and rendering many individuals permanently disabled. Navalny was already vulnerable due to his 2020 poisoning. The harsh detention conditions and cruel treatment he received underscore a deliberate indifference, if not consent, from Putin and the authorities for a dire outcome, employing imprisonment in its most severe form. Second, following Navalny's return and subsequent imprisonment, along with the complete disbandment of the FBK and the non-systemic opposition, especially after the commencement of the war, there ceased to be any advocates for him within the system. This was not about the possibility of commuting his sentence—as it was widely understood that Navalny would remain incarcerated as long as Putin was in power—but rather about preventing his death and the potential political fallout. Demonstrating compassion towards Navalny was perceived as too perilous and out of sync with the prevailing political climate. Consequently, the deterioration of his living conditions and the systematic undermining of his health went unchecked. Today, there is no grounds to believe that anyone within the system would stand up for him.

A Quick Q&A on Whether Putin Truly Intends to End the War in Ukraine. A thread 🧵

Q1. Does Putin Suggest Negotiations with the West?
No. Neither Putin nor other senior Russian officials perceive the West as a capable and responsible counterpart for discussing strategic issues, as Russia understands them. Even if Trump wins the November election, the Russian leadership harbours no illusions about the West's incapacity to pragmatically engage with Russia, particularly in terms of seriously considering its strategic interests. Q2. So Why, in this case, are Putin's purported representatives signalling to Washington insiders a willingness to halt the conflict and start negotiations, as reported by The New York Times?
First, it's important to clarify that these individuals are not Putin's designated representatives, nor are they explicitly tasked by Putin with this specific objective. They are individuals who interpret Putin's stance in a manner they believe to be most accurate. They genuinely think Putin desires to end the conflict and perhaps hope to play a role as mediators. It suits Putin.

Pondering over @MarkGaleotti's sharp insights on my recent @CarnegieRussia piece on Putin's wait-and-see strategy. Mark argues Putin struggles most with the ability to make hard decisions 1/10

https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1662359934757994496

We seem to be juggling three separate things here: Putin's personal interpretation of his historic role, his handling of difficult choices (in his perspective), and his failure in political leadership (in our perspective). 2/10

THREAD. The Federation Council will hold an unscheduled meeting on March 4. A lot of people are now writing that the purpose of this meeting is to adopt anti-crisis laws. But there is another possibility – the approval of martial law.1/5 t.me/rpolitik/353 Frankly speaking, without wanting to stir things up, I think this scenario is the more logical one.
The proclamation of martial law will allow the authorities to introduce military censorship, to increase the secrecy of the state's activities and the actions of local bodies, 2/5

THREAD:  A few quick thoughts on #Navalny and why the Kremlin opted for such a harsh sentence. 1/10 Ever since news broke about the failed assassination attempt last August it’s been clear the security services have been operating according with very simple logic.  2/10

THREAD: Putin’s biggest plan yet—to reform the constitution and reinforce his regime—is facing the greatest crisis of his 20-year rule. In my paper, I explain what’s happening to Putin’s elites and how they are adapting to the new reality. 1/19 carnegie.ru/p-81726 Putin’s elites are far from united. Most players act in their own corporate interests, often contradicting the system’s priorities. Putin, in turn, is getting bored with many day-to-day responsibilities, and is distancing himself. 2/19