Iran's defense ministry's product portfolio enters the next generation
Previous platform are replaced by upgraded or new ones
This is a breakup of the important product changes
Starting with
1: Ghadr/Emad ballistic missile (L) with Khorramshahr (R)
Role: Heavy liquid MRBM
1/n
2: Zolfaghar/Dezful solid propellant SRBMs replaced with Haj-Qasem MRBM
3: Mohajer-6 MALE drone is replaced in its role with Ababil-5
Role: Lower-end MALE strike drone
As a product, its replaced by the Mohajer-10 MALE strike drone
Role: Higher-end piston-engine MALE strike and stand-off surveillance drone (3rd Photo)
4: Ghadr/Ghadir anti-ship missiles (blue color) replaced with a combination of Abu-Mahdi heavy long-range anti-Ship CM (grey color)
Plus
Nasir (R, blue color) light anti-ship missile and its planned future improved range variants
Role: 90-1000km+ range sea-skimming anti-ship CM
5: Toophan (TOW) ATGM by a combination of 🇷🇺 Kornet and 🇮🇱 Spike derived Dehlaviye and Almaz family
Variants are Kornet & Kornet-M based
&
Spike-MR/-LR/-ER based
Role: Different ground/air launch stand-off anti-tank & anti-helicopter missile, man-portable and vehicle mounted
6: Saeghe (Dragon) short-range ATGM with Badr fire-and-forget ATGM
Role: Short-range "self-defense", urban warfare, commando single man, portable ATGM
Some older platforms however are kept alive & in production:
Fateh solid propellant SRBM (2002), has reached its 5th generation (-F)
Qiam liquid propellant SRBM (2010) has become a light MRBM which reaches 1400km in its Rezvan variant
➡️ Probably difficult to beat economically
Some platforms probably won't replace their predecessors, but are a new capability
- Long-range, guided Fajr-5 heavy artillery rocket
- Guided Falagh short-range heavy "siege" rocket
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- by hitting high-end sensor elements like the X-band AN/TPY-2 radars
➡️ Which in turn disables 🇮🇱 capability to identify and discriminate between real targets and decoys, but most importantly; avoid wasting interceptors on empty spent 1st stage boosters which come behind them
If Iran manages to deplete 🇮🇱's interceptor inventory, it will not only cause a 2-digit billion $$$ financial loss
➡️ An Israel which can't defend against ballistic-missiles can't continue a war for long and will have a very bad negotiation position at a future table
- Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time
- Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage assets like OWA- & FPV-drones/ATGMs are found or depleted
1/4
Since Israel hit civilian targets at the start of the attack, Iran will use heavy missiles like Emad to hit targets, even in urban regions.
Once Arrow-3 and THAAD are exhausted by trying to catch hypersonics like Kheybar-Shekan-2/Fattah-1 via multiple launches against single missiles
➡️ The gates are open for heavy Emad hits
And up until here, there is no talk about higher end even heavier warhead missiles like the Khorramshahr family
In comparison, Israel relies primarily on OWA-type drones to hit soft targets.
The psychological effects of seeing a burning oil depot are very different to experiencing a blast of a 1-ton warhead at mach 6
➡️ Combining Tabas and Raad ambush SAM systems in the yet unknown SAM system (left photo)
Lets take a look at the features of Raad-3/Tabas-2 (whatever its called), some of which are unique 1/2
Main feature is passive engagement capability of the Raad system, which combines infrared volume search with a long-range laser-range-finder
➡️ It allows passive engagement up until the last seconds before SAM impact, when it switches to terminal SARH mode and radar is turned on
In the new system, infrared search cameras are likely mounted on the mast, putting it at higher position
On the photo, the mast only mounts the long-range directional data-link antenna, which is a very important capability of the system.
It relies on upper-echelon early warning