Patarames Profile picture
Aug 24, 2023 8 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Iran's defense ministry's product portfolio enters the next generation

Previous platform are replaced by upgraded or new ones

This is a breakup of the important product changes

Starting with
1: Ghadr/Emad ballistic missile (L) with Khorramshahr (R)
Role: Heavy liquid MRBM

1/n
Image
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2: Zolfaghar/Dezful solid propellant SRBMs replaced with Haj-Qasem MRBM
Image
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3: Mohajer-6 MALE drone is replaced in its role with Ababil-5
Role: Lower-end MALE strike drone

As a product, its replaced by the Mohajer-10 MALE strike drone
Role: Higher-end piston-engine MALE strike and stand-off surveillance drone (3rd Photo)

Image
Image
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4: Ghadr/Ghadir anti-ship missiles (blue color) replaced with a combination of Abu-Mahdi heavy long-range anti-Ship CM (grey color)
Plus
Nasir (R, blue color) light anti-ship missile and its planned future improved range variants

Role: 90-1000km+ range sea-skimming anti-ship CM
Image
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5: Toophan (TOW) ATGM by a combination of 🇷🇺 Kornet and 🇮🇱 Spike derived Dehlaviye and Almaz family

Variants are Kornet & Kornet-M based
&
Spike-MR/-LR/-ER based

Role: Different ground/air launch stand-off anti-tank & anti-helicopter missile, man-portable and vehicle mounted
Image
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6: Saeghe (Dragon) short-range ATGM with Badr fire-and-forget ATGM

Role: Short-range "self-defense", urban warfare, commando single man, portable ATGM
Image
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Some older platforms however are kept alive & in production:
Fateh solid propellant SRBM (2002), has reached its 5th generation (-F)

Qiam liquid propellant SRBM (2010) has become a light MRBM which reaches 1400km in its Rezvan variant

➡️ Probably difficult to beat economically
Image
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Some platforms probably won't replace their predecessors, but are a new capability
- Long-range, guided Fajr-5 heavy artillery rocket
- Guided Falagh short-range heavy "siege" rocket Image

• • •

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More from @Pataramesh

Jun 21
People want 🇮🇷🇮🇱 insights
Let me give them some:

➡️ In the first week of OTP-III Iran's primary goal was to degrade Israel's air- and missile defenses

- By forcing ripple launches against single high-speed 🇮🇷 missiles
( I observed up to 14 against a single missile)
1/5
- by hitting high-end sensor elements like the X-band AN/TPY-2 radars

➡️ Which in turn disables 🇮🇱 capability to identify and discriminate between real targets and decoys, but most importantly; avoid wasting interceptors on empty spent 1st stage boosters which come behind them Image
If Iran manages to deplete 🇮🇱's interceptor inventory, it will not only cause a 2-digit billion $$$ financial loss
➡️ An Israel which can't defend against ballistic-missiles can't continue a war for long and will have a very bad negotiation position at a future table Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 15
Time to explain some realities:

- Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time

- Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage assets like OWA- & FPV-drones/ATGMs are found or depleted

1/4
Since Israel hit civilian targets at the start of the attack, Iran will use heavy missiles like Emad to hit targets, even in urban regions.

Once Arrow-3 and THAAD are exhausted by trying to catch hypersonics like Kheybar-Shekan-2/Fattah-1 via multiple launches against single missiles

➡️ The gates are open for heavy Emad hits
And up until here, there is no talk about higher end even heavier warhead missiles like the Khorramshahr family

In comparison, Israel relies primarily on OWA-type drones to hit soft targets.

The psychological effects of seeing a burning oil depot are very different to experiencing a blast of a 1-ton warhead at mach 6
Read 5 tweets
Jun 13
🟡 As Operation True Promise III is about to unfold:

➡️ A thread on which weapons 🇮🇷 will likely use for what targets:

1: Fattah-2
Maybe the best tool to take out 🇮🇱's U.S. AN/TPY-2 radar, a key asset for missile defense

But not known to be operational
2: Khorramshahr-4

Unlikely to be used but among the best systems to directly strike the THAAD AN/TPY-2 radar and battery components.

It would also be a suited tool against the Arrow missile defense layers.

Use unlikely as Fattah-1 is available.

3: Fattah-1

Operational and suited for taking out missile defenses and their radars

Probably the missile most likely to be used at the very start of the OTP-III strikes

Read 18 tweets
Dec 26, 2024
🔴 🇨🇳 6th Gen. fighter

- 20km+ altitude operation regime
- Long-range super-cruise
with a high-lift ↔️ low-drag low-observable airframe...

A new era of beyond visual range warfare
➡️ And it was not started by the usual suspects 🇺🇸🇷🇺

➡️ First 🇨🇳 thrust-vector-control fighter Image
Image
There is a non-zero chance that it has a hybrid propulsion of two jet engines and a RAM-jet with a top intake

But for now it seems its size and the resulting thrust requirements could not be meet with just two engines Image
Image
If it was a bomber, J-20-like DSI would have done the job.

➡️ This beast is made for very high speeds

Oh and those things at its cheeks are side radar arrays. You don't need that on a bomber... Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 30, 2024
Weapon systems not unveiled yet:

Next generation 🇮🇷 "Guerrilla" air-defense

➡️ Combining Tabas and Raad ambush SAM systems in the yet unknown SAM system (left photo)

Lets take a look at the features of Raad-3/Tabas-2 (whatever its called), some of which are unique
1/2
Image
Image
Main feature is passive engagement capability of the Raad system, which combines infrared volume search with a long-range laser-range-finder

➡️ It allows passive engagement up until the last seconds before SAM impact, when it switches to terminal SARH mode and radar is turned on Image
In the new system, infrared search cameras are likely mounted on the mast, putting it at higher position

On the photo, the mast only mounts the long-range directional data-link antenna, which is a very important capability of the system.
It relies on upper-echelon early warning Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 16, 2024
I mean, 🇮🇱 already put it into a graphic how the retaliation against 🇮🇷 could look like & which weapon type to be used, if things go kinetic

➡️ Terrain-masking F-15I flying over Jordan
➡️ Popping up over Iraq
➡️ Dashing to mach ~1,5 at ~14km ALT
➡️ Launching two Rocks ALBM

1/6
Image
Image
➡️ Rocks flying under low drag conditions & mach ~1,5 initial velocity to 600-800km range at mach >6

➡️ DSMAC terminal seeker allowing attacking accurately, targets that are masked by terrain towards west attack vector

➡️ Retaining mach ~5 impact velocity for penetrating effect Image
➡️ mach >5 Terminal evasive maneuvering, would mean only few 🇮🇷 missile defense interceptors could defend against it (e.g S-300PMU2)

➡️ A raid size of 80 F-15, would mean 160 Rocks ALBM, which can easily saturate S-300 battery

➡️ Penetration warhead could put Natanz UGF at risk Image
Read 6 tweets

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