Patarames Profile picture
Aug 24, 2023 8 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Iran's defense ministry's product portfolio enters the next generation

Previous platform are replaced by upgraded or new ones

This is a breakup of the important product changes

Starting with
1: Ghadr/Emad ballistic missile (L) with Khorramshahr (R)
Role: Heavy liquid MRBM

1/n
Image
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2: Zolfaghar/Dezful solid propellant SRBMs replaced with Haj-Qasem MRBM
Image
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3: Mohajer-6 MALE drone is replaced in its role with Ababil-5
Role: Lower-end MALE strike drone

As a product, its replaced by the Mohajer-10 MALE strike drone
Role: Higher-end piston-engine MALE strike and stand-off surveillance drone (3rd Photo)

Image
Image
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4: Ghadr/Ghadir anti-ship missiles (blue color) replaced with a combination of Abu-Mahdi heavy long-range anti-Ship CM (grey color)
Plus
Nasir (R, blue color) light anti-ship missile and its planned future improved range variants

Role: 90-1000km+ range sea-skimming anti-ship CM
Image
Image
5: Toophan (TOW) ATGM by a combination of 🇷🇺 Kornet and 🇮🇱 Spike derived Dehlaviye and Almaz family

Variants are Kornet & Kornet-M based
&
Spike-MR/-LR/-ER based

Role: Different ground/air launch stand-off anti-tank & anti-helicopter missile, man-portable and vehicle mounted
Image
Image
6: Saeghe (Dragon) short-range ATGM with Badr fire-and-forget ATGM

Role: Short-range "self-defense", urban warfare, commando single man, portable ATGM
Image
Image
Some older platforms however are kept alive & in production:
Fateh solid propellant SRBM (2002), has reached its 5th generation (-F)

Qiam liquid propellant SRBM (2010) has become a light MRBM which reaches 1400km in its Rezvan variant

➡️ Probably difficult to beat economically
Image
Image
Some platforms probably won't replace their predecessors, but are a new capability
- Long-range, guided Fajr-5 heavy artillery rocket
- Guided Falagh short-range heavy "siege" rocket Image

• • •

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More from @Pataramesh

Dec 26, 2024
🔴 🇨🇳 6th Gen. fighter

- 20km+ altitude operation regime
- Long-range super-cruise
with a high-lift ↔️ low-drag low-observable airframe...

A new era of beyond visual range warfare
➡️ And it was not started by the usual suspects 🇺🇸🇷🇺

➡️ First 🇨🇳 thrust-vector-control fighter Image
Image
There is a non-zero chance that it has a hybrid propulsion of two jet engines and a RAM-jet with a top intake

But for now it seems its size and the resulting thrust requirements could not be meet with just two engines Image
Image
If it was a bomber, J-20-like DSI would have done the job.

➡️ This beast is made for very high speeds

Oh and those things at its cheeks are side radar arrays. You don't need that on a bomber... Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 30, 2024
Weapon systems not unveiled yet:

Next generation 🇮🇷 "Guerrilla" air-defense

➡️ Combining Tabas and Raad ambush SAM systems in the yet unknown SAM system (left photo)

Lets take a look at the features of Raad-3/Tabas-2 (whatever its called), some of which are unique
1/2
Image
Image
Main feature is passive engagement capability of the Raad system, which combines infrared volume search with a long-range laser-range-finder

➡️ It allows passive engagement up until the last seconds before SAM impact, when it switches to terminal SARH mode and radar is turned on Image
In the new system, infrared search cameras are likely mounted on the mast, putting it at higher position

On the photo, the mast only mounts the long-range directional data-link antenna, which is a very important capability of the system.
It relies on upper-echelon early warning Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 16, 2024
I mean, 🇮🇱 already put it into a graphic how the retaliation against 🇮🇷 could look like & which weapon type to be used, if things go kinetic

➡️ Terrain-masking F-15I flying over Jordan
➡️ Popping up over Iraq
➡️ Dashing to mach ~1,5 at ~14km ALT
➡️ Launching two Rocks ALBM

1/6
Image
Image
➡️ Rocks flying under low drag conditions & mach ~1,5 initial velocity to 600-800km range at mach >6

➡️ DSMAC terminal seeker allowing attacking accurately, targets that are masked by terrain towards west attack vector

➡️ Retaining mach ~5 impact velocity for penetrating effect Image
➡️ mach >5 Terminal evasive maneuvering, would mean only few 🇮🇷 missile defense interceptors could defend against it (e.g S-300PMU2)

➡️ A raid size of 80 F-15, would mean 160 Rocks ALBM, which can easily saturate S-300 battery

➡️ Penetration warhead could put Natanz UGF at risk Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 13, 2024
🔴 My deep article about Iran weapons of choice during the ongoing retaliation strike
⬇️

(Split into 11 tweets) Image
2/11 Image
3/11 Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 12, 2024
🇮🇱 Ballistic-missile defenses
🆚
🇮🇷 Ballistic-missile

Arrow-3 effective against:

- Shahab-3
- Ghadr *
- Emad *
-Sejil-2 *
- Dezful
- Qiam-2
- Rezvan
- Khorramshahr-2 *

*(if decoys/chaff/ other pen-aids discriminated by AN-TPY-2)

1/8
Image
Arrow-2 (-1) effective against (1/2):

- Shahab-3
- Ghadr (if non-sub-munition & no "evader MaRV")
- Sejil-2 (if non-sub-munition & no "evader MaRV")
- Emad (if no "evader MaRV")
- Dezful (if no "evader MaRV")
- Qiam-2
- Rezvan (at reduced range/coverage)
⬇️ Image
Arrow-2 (-1) effective against (2/2):

- Khorramshahr-2 (if non-sub-munition & no "evader MaRV")
- Khorramshahr-4 *
-Haj-Qasem *
- Kheybar-Shekan *
- Fattah-1 (at point defense range/coverage or launch on remote of several interceptors)

*(at reduced range/coverage)

⬇️ Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 19, 2024
Low-cost kill-chain necessary against high-end opponent (🇮🇱):

- Stand-off reconnaissance (SAR, 140km)

- Low observable, long-range drone (~1500km strike radius)

- Stand-off PGM (30-40km)

- Airborne relayed communication

➡️ Omni-direction strike
➡️ Never get closer than 30km


Image
Image
Image
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The strike component, the Shahed-197 drone is/has:

- Physically small
- Flying wing design with extensive RAS
- Low thermal signature piston engine
- Internal weapon bay
- Low-cost

Hence may could get within 30km or 🇮🇱 radars

The subsonic glide-bomb is:
- Small
- Very low-cost
The stand-off reconnaissance sensors on Shahed-129/-139/-149 could operate above friendly airspace (🇸🇾)

SAR/GMTI radar with up to 140km range

Protected by SAM and often still too far away for long-range AAM shot

With low-cost & high numbers jamming & losses could be countered
Read 4 tweets

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