this is a super nice trade I took a while back using this exact reasoning, which not only uses anchored vwap, but brings into play order flow and where the majority are sided.
hope you found value thank you for reading.
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- the last up/sideways movement before an illiquid down move
- the last down/sideways movement before an illiquid up move.
illiquid typically can just mean a strong one time-framing move where there are no pullbacks.
example โ
how orderblocks work (theory):
orderblocks are where there has been a clear sign of significant previous market activity, meaning a revisitation of this area could act as a stop gap.
for example:
the last down move before a significant up move is being revisited.
there are multiple reasons for price to react from this:
- offside shorts from this zone โ closing positions at breakeven
- any new longs who entered here โ defending their existing position
these zones are primed with liquidity (thicker books), allowing for larger players coming into the market to increase the chance they get orders filled.
when new positions enter and are placed in an offside position, they will naturally want to close, squeezing the market in the opposite direction.
this natural outburst of breakout traders being caught offside can be a great reason to look for a reversal.
example โ
identifying trapped traders:
requires an understanding of open interest and delta, as open interest will categorically tell you if the majority of positions entering are new ones.
open interest increasing = new positions
open interest decreasing = positions closing
positive delta = longs
negative delta = shorts
breakout traders only appear when there's an increase in open interest; otherwise, most positions you see will be closing.
1) identify the candle in which new positions have largely entered 2) identify a level in which those new positions would be offside 3) trade in the direction of the new positions unwinding