(Part 1)
Let's talk about what Happened during the first days of the #counteroffensive in the #Verbove and #Robotyne Area in detail
Its split into 2 threads because I can't put over 25 tweets in a thread, this is Part 1
[Thread] 1/
There were a lot of convoys that pushed from 5 different brigades
3 Convoys from the 47th mechanized brigade
2 of the 33rd
1 46th
1 from an Unknown unit
and 1 smaller 1 of the 118th 2/
Before it started Artillery and FPV Drones started striking Trucks and shelling Russian positions
you would of expected more from artillery during this crucial moment which is 1 of the reasons the first attacks failed 3/
From here We'll touch on every convoy one by one
from west to east
5/
The most Western Convoy:
the first loss of this convoy happened before it even started moving
a Russian drone spotted 2 leo2a6s sitting just south of #Novodanylivka and an FPV drone hit 1 of them
the tank most likely got evacuated safely
Immediately after the convoy got out of #Novodanylivka it got hit with artillery 1 bradley was damaged and a recovery attempt was made but its result is unclear
the convoy consisted of
2 Leo2a6s
2 Leo2Rs
half a cmp of bradleys (8) 7/
As they entered the minefield they lost even more vehicles
half of the mechanized force was gone but a path through the minefield was made and the convoy moved in and dismounted the infantry 8/
Russian Artillery was hitting this convoy hard and when the demining vehicles were disabled the leo2a6s moved back to cover the withdrawal of the bradleys but that didn't happen and all vehicles got disabled or destroyed 9/
after that Russian Artillery started hitting the treeline to dislodge the infantry the result is unclear
10/
Ukrainian vehicles were sent back in to try to recover 1 of the Leo2Rs and Create another path around them the attempt led to 1 more Leo2r that got destroyed 1 bergepanzer getting disabled and 1 MaxxPro with Sappers getting taken out but 1 bradley got recovered 11/
Second 47th convoy
1 reinforced mech Cmp with 2 Leo2a6s and Soviet advancing this is where the Russians put their biggest focus on because of its scale
this is the only convoy where aviation was used against 12/
when the convoy reached the Highway 1 of its Platoons with 1 demining vehicle split of and went to push from the western part of the field
where it got bogged down 13/
WARNING. GRAPHIC FOOTAGE:
what happened with the big convoy is a bit more complicated it took me around 6 hours to figure it out and I'm still not 100% sure but my theory is the following: 14/
5 M2A2 Bradleys and 1 demining vehicle managed to pass and move to their obj but
1 leo2a6 and 4 bradleys got stuck because of the Ka-52s after that
a bmr-2 tried to make a path around them so the rest of the convoy could pass but ended up getting stuck with them 15/
The tanks that got stranded north created a new path through the minefield with their mine clearing vehicle and retreated leaving the Bradley Pile behind 16/ again this is very confusing but it looks the most possible to me
the most eastern convoy of the 47th mechanized looks like it might have arrived at a later date from the others but I cannot confirm 17/
this column looks like it was a reinforced mech cmp with 1 Plt of leo2a6s and 2 demining vehicles also it looks like it was 4 smaller columns instead of 1 big one 18/
the column managed to create a path way through the minefield and push up to the treeline successfully but when they tried to push beyond the minefield a plt was lost from FPV strikes realizing further pushes would be costly they decided to call it a day and withdrew the armor
19
Half of the force was hit some of the vehicles might have made it out but not confirmation 20/
Now we move on to the 33rd/46ths's convoys here it gets really complicated because this area was the most unorganized of them all a lot of smaller convoys merged into bigger convoys with equipment from different brigades
I'm gonna do my best to explain it 21/
these are the convoys that moved in
1 from the 46th with:
1 VAB
1 MaxxPro
1 Husky TSV
2 M-ATVs
1 T80BV
1 T80BV with mine roller
1 convoy from the 33rd:
4 Leopard 2A4s
3 M113s 22/
Another convoy from the 33rd:
1 Leopard 2A4
6 M113s
and 1 small truck convoy with:
3 6x6 trucks(1 got destroyed in route)
1 4x4 truck
merged with the eastern 33rd convoy
ok this is how it looks after they mixed up clearing the first Russian positions
1 Leopard 2a4 got hit with an FPV in route but kept going 23/
the first assault was conducted by the eastern 33rd convoy all vehicles that launched the assault got destroyed except 1 Leopard 2A4 that got out before the artillery caught up
it got confused and moved down the highway and it later got destroyed by artillery 24/
25/ the remaining 2 leo2a4s decided to withdraw since 1 was already damaged by an FPV Strike
I want to talk about this video from @MilHiVisualized and address certain things using some Velika novosilka engagements.
Thread🧵
First, I want to talk about ISR and staging areas.
After the Counter offensive units finished their training in late may, they got deployed into their rear staging areas around Pokrovske specifically chosen because they had Large Towns and forested areas. 1/2
These areas failed to conceal the Ukrainian Grouping.
It's unclear if the Ukrainians made attempts to further conceal their elements on the battalion to Plt levels but still, it was very clear that the operation was gonna happen at this specific sector.
the French AASMs will be a direct contributor to the Russian FAB250 with a Conversion kit for guidance.
This cheap conversion has allowed the Russians to fire 10s if not 100s of Bombs a day from 70kms away
The French AASMs are technologically superior in many ways to the Russian UMPK FABs but they cost more than 20 times extra.
Of course the Russian don't just use Glide bombs, they also use KABs which have a shorter range but are more technologically advanced
Why Ukraine should withdraw from #Avdiivka, before it gets bad.
explaining the logistics of such a situation
Thread🧵
Assuming we have a reinforced brigade inside this town, it would need Small Arms/Mortar ammunition Rations, Petroleum, oil, Lubricants, Water potentially medical equipment of Spare Parts, Engineers would need resources and tools in order to do their jobs etc.
Similarly the unit would need to send stuff back to their trains, this would include damaged equipment, Casualties, POW's etc.
Service Routes are also used for Rotations or Reinforcements
a little look at the Avdiivka situation just a quick thread
Thread🧵
during the last month the Russian after realizing their operations on the flanks had failed, started relocating and reinforcing forces towards more direct avenues to the town although this doesn't that they were interested in being stuck in heavy urban combat for months
the Russians planned to assault the weakly held fortification at the Tsarka Hotel(not sure about the name) and break into the the town
can Ukraine launch another offensive this year if yes how where and could it have Strategic Significance
Thread🧵
after the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in 2023 we haven't heard anything about a 2024 offensive this could either be because there is nothing planned or simply to not set any expectations to western allies and to keep it secret from the enemy
in this thread we'll analyze the capabilities Ukraine could potential master for an offensive in 2024
Understanding the western Logistical Structure and how they influence the battlefield
Thread
Part 1
Logistics are probably one of the most important factors in War it can be the difference between a 2 week operation and a 3 year struggle, a Commander's understanding of his own logistical capabilities is vital in an operation of any scale
in this thread I'll try my best to explain the complexity of Sustaining operations and hopefully open up a new perspective for people reading