A brief clarification regarding the defensive lines. @KofmanMichael addressed this in a recent war on the rocks podcast.
On a daily basis I see questions like:
"Where are the defensive lines"
"Which is the first line"
I'll try to address this here.
The blue dashed line represent the most forward observed UA positions while the red represent RU the same for RU.
Orange is trench systems observed via satellite imagery.
Looking at the Robotyne axis, the layered defense looks like this.
The first part of the defenses is the combat zone, almost every tree line here is fortified. It's heavily mined and it consists of mostly smaller trenches and fox holes sometimes just big.
Sometimes when people talk about the first line of defense they mean the defenses along the active frontline and some other mean the prepared Surovikin line. That is why you hear some people talk about Ukraine already broke the 1st line of defense and some say they haven't.
The lines which are usually called 1st/2nd line of defense or Surovikin lines.
They have been machine made and consist of a anti tank ditch, a triple row of concrete pyramids and a system of infantry trenches. The area is heavily mined.
Video of pyramids and trench system.
Early images of the trench systems.
The concrete bunkers have been covered with dirt at this point. So have parts of the trenches.
If you feel unsure about these these lines you can go to my map and look. Link pinned in my profile.
h/t @AS_22ws and @bradyafr for providing the trench systems as KML.
The most easily accessible map out there with trenches is probably deepstatemap.live
🧵The situation in Vovchansk is interesting. The map shows geolocated positions the last 8 days h/t @UAControlMap. When the first rumors about an encirclement at the aggregate plant, I thought it was BS. But it appears there is some truth to it, supposedly 83rd VDV.
The extent of isolation and the amount of people is unclear. Once interesting thing is the Russians committed one of their best units, 2nd Special Purpose Brigade to fight in the town. We have mostly seen poorly trained and equipped units without mechanized support in this fight
According to RU channels UA withdrew from the Filtration Plant in the east and Zenith in the south. This is good news, since avoiding an encirclement should be a priority at this point. It seems the coke plant and Kvartal high-rises are the current UA strongholds.
RU forces continue to try to fully encircle Avdiivka pushing mainly from 3 directions.
It remains to be seen if Ukraine are planning to withdraw from the east side of the city, but I think it's a pretty good idea to do so.
UA might chose to fight for the coke plant and Kvartal for a bit, but the gap for the gloc is only 3km and consists of 2 windbreaks.
I frequently get questions like:
"Are you ok?"
"What happened?"
"Why did you stop posting?"
So here we go⬇️
Yes I'm ok.
(This post is sponsored by Ramzan Fragglerov)
Time.
I have less time to follow Ukraine. I usually spent about 3-4 hours a day to just make my daily threads and going through all the information channels. To be able to keep the information reliable, I have to put in 6-10h per day. I dont have that kind of time anymore.
I lost my best friend in March, so I had go get a new one. He is getting a lot of my attention now.
🧵During the last week, Ukrainian forces have advanced 32km2 in the Robotyne direction. They are expanding their penetration of the Surovikin and have reached the outskirts of Verbove and Verbove.