A brief clarification regarding the defensive lines. @KofmanMichael addressed this in a recent war on the rocks podcast.
On a daily basis I see questions like:
"Where are the defensive lines"
"Which is the first line"
I'll try to address this here.
The blue dashed line represent the most forward observed UA positions while the red represent RU the same for RU.
Orange is trench systems observed via satellite imagery.
Looking at the Robotyne axis, the layered defense looks like this.
The first part of the defenses is the combat zone, almost every tree line here is fortified. It's heavily mined and it consists of mostly smaller trenches and fox holes sometimes just big.
Sometimes when people talk about the first line of defense they mean the defenses along the active frontline and some other mean the prepared Surovikin line. That is why you hear some people talk about Ukraine already broke the 1st line of defense and some say they haven't.
The lines which are usually called 1st/2nd line of defense or Surovikin lines.
They have been machine made and consist of a anti tank ditch, a triple row of concrete pyramids and a system of infantry trenches. The area is heavily mined.
Video of pyramids and trench system.
Early images of the trench systems.
The concrete bunkers have been covered with dirt at this point. So have parts of the trenches.
If you feel unsure about these these lines you can go to my map and look. Link pinned in my profile.
h/t @AS_22ws and @bradyafr for providing the trench systems as KML.
The most easily accessible map out there with trenches is probably deepstatemap.live
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992
Since last fall, Russia have increased their effort to build shelters for aircrafts. I have identified 14 localtion where they have build or are building shelters.
Kirovske
45.1709, 35.1761
10 U shaped walls, no roof.
Engels AirBase
51.49953, 46.23520
Construction recently started, ground work for 10 shelters.