A brief clarification regarding the defensive lines. @KofmanMichael addressed this in a recent war on the rocks podcast.
On a daily basis I see questions like:
"Where are the defensive lines"
"Which is the first line"
I'll try to address this here.
The blue dashed line represent the most forward observed UA positions while the red represent RU the same for RU.
Orange is trench systems observed via satellite imagery.
Looking at the Robotyne axis, the layered defense looks like this.
The first part of the defenses is the combat zone, almost every tree line here is fortified. It's heavily mined and it consists of mostly smaller trenches and fox holes sometimes just big.
Sometimes when people talk about the first line of defense they mean the defenses along the active frontline and some other mean the prepared Surovikin line. That is why you hear some people talk about Ukraine already broke the 1st line of defense and some say they haven't.
The lines which are usually called 1st/2nd line of defense or Surovikin lines.
They have been machine made and consist of a anti tank ditch, a triple row of concrete pyramids and a system of infantry trenches. The area is heavily mined.
Video of pyramids and trench system.
Early images of the trench systems.
The concrete bunkers have been covered with dirt at this point. So have parts of the trenches.
If you feel unsure about these these lines you can go to my map and look. Link pinned in my profile.
h/t @AS_22ws and @bradyafr for providing the trench systems as KML.
The most easily accessible map out there with trenches is probably deepstatemap.live
They decided to go and stand on this little piece of road right here.
57.923805, 27.679182
There is some kind of local deal where Estonians are allowed to drive over that little stretch of Russian land if they don't stop. news.err.ee/1609827133/ppa…
Rough infil/exfil path of the UVU shooter, based on photos, videos and eye whitness reports. Green arrows are guestimated paths between sightings.
In the start of this video, the UVU shooter can be seen walking towards the campus, at the end he can be seen running away from it.
40.28187, -111.71443
The next location is the tunnel going under the Campus drive to the parking garage
40.28014, -111.71459
Ukrainian Drone hit the Deng Xiaoping Logistics Complex which is part of the Alabuga Special Economical Zone. The Alabuga SEZ is where they produce the Shahed drone.
The DXLC is a railway logistics center being built in partnership with China to support the fast growing Alabuga SEZ.
At the actual SEZ they are expanding at a rapid pace, they are building on site housing and/or office space for tens of thousands of employees. Their goal is likely to significantly scale up the production of drones.
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?