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Jul 6

As Ukraine marked Naval Forces Day, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet started the morning fending off a joint air and sea drone attack on its base in Novorossiysk. Early footage shows no major damage. Our team reviewed satellite imagery from the day before, here’s what we know🧵:

2/ As of July 5, four Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines were present at the Novorossiysk naval base - which is nearly the entire remaining operational submarine force of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. These submarines are equipped to launch Kalibr cruise missiles.

3/ Valuable naval assets, including an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, minesweepers, patrol boats, and corvettes, were anchored in the bay at the time of the attack. The strike occurred overnight, and by late morning, local authorities declared the situation to be safe

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@Tatarigami_UA

Jul 5

In recent months, Russia has focused on drone strikes deeper behind the front, aiming to disrupt Ukraine’s supply lines. In return, Ukraine has turned to hitting Russian drone teams. In an effort called "Dronocide," Ukrainian troops found 90 suspected drone sites in Zaporizhzhia

2/ The Armed Forces of Ukraine claim that 42 enemy positions were destroyed or heavily damaged in precision strikes. Notably, it does seem that the operation was a coordinated joint efforts between the Air Force, Defense Intelligence, drone units, and a land forces brigade.

3/ Coordination between various branches and units has long been a persistent issue for the Armed Forces. But based on this limited evidence presented in the video, there are optimistic signs that coordination and joint execution is improving to some degree.

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@Tatarigami_UA

Jul 5

On 5 July, Ukrainian forces carried out a strike on the Borysoglebsk airfield in Russia. Reports indicate that a depot with glide bombs, a trainer aircraft, and possibly other aircraft were hit. Our team has conducted a brief analysis of imagery a fire map - here’s what we found:

2/ NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System detected at least three thermal anomalies at the Air Base. While it's not very precise or comprehensive, the heat sources appear to be located in 2 areas: the central part of the airfield and the logistical section

3/ While not conclusive, this serves as a credible independent indicator suggesting a possible strike on the logistical area - where Russian forces may have stored ammo, or fuel. The fire in the central part of the airfield appears to be near the Radar Landing System

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@Tatarigami_UA

Jul 4

For many in developing countries, Russia offers a chance to earn blood money they might never otherwise see. Hundreds of Cubans have taken that path, and our team Frontelligence Insight used them as a case study to find out how many foreigners are now fighting for Russia.🧵Thread

2/ In 2023, a major data leak exposed records of hundreds of Cuban mercenaries, later investigated by @InformNapalm. We analyzed 176 personal files and found that most recruits were between 30 and 39 years old, followed by those aged 40 to 49 - with a few even over 60.

3/ With their full names in hand, tracing their whereabouts on Russian social media was relatively easy. One mercenary in particular, Enriquez Linares Livan Michel, proved especially useful. His social media profile contained both photographs and geodata.

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@Tatarigami_UA

Jul 1

Ukrainian drone strikes in Izhevsk: Russia’s arms heart, and Luhansk using rocket-drone "Peklo" demonstrates Kyiv’s growing technological abilities. The message to Putin is clear: Ukraine’s strike range and warhead size will only continue to expand as the war continues:

2/ Air defense drones are emerging as a promising counter to Russia’s expanding Shahed (Geran) drone output - no longer just a concept, but an increasingly likely solution that could help offset Moscow’s production surge with scalable and relatively cheap response

3/ Russia’s consistent failure to break Ukrainian front, despite a manpower edge, and mounting economic issues, admitted even by Putin, nullify their bravado shown during the latest Istanbul. Achieving Moscow’s stated goals would require far more resources than it's deploying

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@Tatarigami_UA

Jun 30

Our team has been tracking Russia’s recruitment efforts abroad, with a focus on West Africa and Cuba. Some revealing insights follow in this short thread🧵:

1. While some foreign POWs claim they were misled, documents suggest they joined Russia’s military knowingly

2. The reality is quite prosaic: Moscow offers steady pay that far surpasses local wages, along with the lure of adventure - an exciting offer for young men in economically strained countries. In some cases, recruits receive upfront bonuses as high as $20,000 and more

3. The contracts - often written in languages such as Spanish or French - clearly outline terms, including compensation for injury or death, and explicitly mention “Special Military Operation” zone. This makes claims of recruits being unaware highly implausible

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