Exceptional thread and profound insights into the counter-offensive in the South by @solonko1648 (Olexandr Solon'ko), servicemember of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In his analysis, he sheds light on the situation, discussing both the challenges and achievements.
The Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com has published a photo of a document with Russian losses over 8 months, from January to September 2025. According to it, total KIA numbers 86,744, roughly 10,843 per month, which is very close to our earlier estimates. Total losses are 281,550
2/ The published document contains a breakdown by units. Our team will work tonight to verify whether the numbers match the Russian documents we have on hand, but at first glance, it appears authentic. Notably, over 33,966 are listed as MIA, so the majority of them are likely KIA
3/ This is very close to our earlier estimates published in July and August, which pointed to 8,400–10,500 KIA per month. These estimates have proven to be quite accurate, demonstrating that our methodology is precise and reliable
About 60% of the deep strikes on Russian territory are carried out by Ukrainian Fire Point FP-1 drones, which with a smaller payload can reach targets 1,500km within Russia and have sophisticated software that has proved resistant to EW jamming.
🧵Thread:
2/ Olena Kryzhanivska, an expert on Ukrainian weapons systems, notes that the FP-1s cost only about $55,000 each and are now being churned out at a rate more than 100 a day. Ukraine is also using the heavier and more expensive Lyutyi drone, which has a range of 2,000km
3/ There are also reports that FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles have begun to be used. They are much faster than the drones, flying just 50 metres above the ground, with a range of over 3,000km and packing a huge punch thanks to a 1,150kg warhead
Russia is resorting to increasingly drastic measures to find recruits. The list has grown: beyond coercing detainees and conscripts, Moscow is now pressuring businesses to supply contract soldiers while further raising enlistment payments. 🧵Thread with all recent updates:
2/ Thanks to recent updates from @CITeam_en and iStories, we’ve learned that In Russia’s Primorsky region, officials told local business leaders they must help recruit men for the front. Employers were instructed to pressure their staff into signing contracts or contribute money
3/ In Voronezh oblast, officials sharply raised the bonus for signing a contract with the Defense Ministry. Governor Alexander Gusev boosted the regional payout from 505,000 rubles to 2.1 million. With federal payments added, the total now stands at 2.5 million rubles (~$27,000)
Since January, 21 of Russia’s 38 major refineries, facilities that process crude into fuels such as gasoline and diesel, have been hit, a new BBC Verify investigation found. The tally of successful attacks is already 48% higher than the total for all of 2024. 🧵Thread:
2/ BBC analysis shows reported attacks hit a record in August, when Ukrainian drones targeted 14 refineries, followed by eight more in September. Some of the strikes reached facilities deep inside Russia.
3/ In late September, the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan was struck twice. Satellite images showed smoke rising from the facility, which sits more than 1,100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Russia is exploiting economic struggles in developing nations, luring thousands of Africans with promises of escaping poverty - only for many to end up KIA or missing. Key findings from Frontelligence Insight’s analysis of unique mercenary records in Africa and the Middle East:
2/ According to available data, Egypt is the leading contributor, with 291 documented cases. While the full roster of mercenaries remains incomplete, Egyptians make up nearly 25% of the more than 1200 records we have manually reviewed.
3/ We requested materials from the Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com, which deals with POWs from all countries fighting for Russia, to see whether they have matching documents. Their records confirmed several individuals have been listed in Russia as missing in action:
Russia’s military rearmament, especially weapon production numbers, reveals much about its future plans. These numbers are usually hidden in classified documents, a problem Frontelligence Insight, with help from insiders, has solved. For the first time, we can share some of them:
2/ Before the release of the documents, spoilers of which an attentive eye may already have found in the image, we ask our followers to click the notify button in the profile so you don’t miss it. Many have reported that after updates, they don't see posts from those they follow
3/ While we prepare our X release, we invite everyone to read our latest research, based on tens of thousands of personal records of Russian deserters, published yesterday, but something you might have completely missed with the new “better” algorithms.