Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Now that the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Prigozhin, we can categorically say the decision of the Ukrainians to fight for Bakhmut (which ended up devastating Wagner) was the right choice. For a number of reasons.

1) the losses Wagner suffered led to Prigozhin’s growing split with the Russian military. The longer the campaign lasted the more angry he became, and this led directly to the mutiny attempt. No Bakhmut, no mutiny. The mutiny not only crippled Wagner; it’s weakened Putin.

2) Wagner fought relatively well at Bakhmut, and with some real aggression. If the Ukrainians had abandoned Bakhmut, it would have preserved large number of Wagner forces, allowed them to recruit more, all of whom would be fighting Ukrainians now. Russia would have real reserves.

3) Had Ukraine pulled out of Bakhmut, it would not have sped up the counteroffensive, as clearly the Ukrainians needed all the time possible to train. If anything; it started on the early side in early June. That means Russia would have had more resources to both rest up and…

(Cont) help dig in for the counteroffensive.

So, in fighting for Bakhmut, the Ukrainians broke Wagner, helped precipitate the violent breakdown between Prigozhin and Putin, has deprived Russia of a large reserve force now, and deprived Russia of more resources to have dug in. It was a hard choice, but worth it.

Should also add, that in crippling Wagner and helping precipitate the mutiny, fighting for Bakhmut also ended up with Putin strengthening the positions of Shoigu and Gerasimov (who have performed poorly) and getting rid of Surovikin, who seems considerably more competent

Seen some comments that the Ukrainians could not have known this would happen--well of course not. They cant know the future. They decided to do it to cause maximum casualties to the Russians. It was these casualties (intended) which caused the Wagner crisis.