The Ukrainian offensive in the Robotyne sector has progressed, and the first Russian main defence line has been reached.
In this thread we’ll take a closer look at the main defensive line and what might happen next.
This thread includes high resolution satellite imagery. 🧵 1/
Ukrainians have been trying to advance in the Robotyne area since June. After over two and a half months of fighting, Ukraine has liberated most of Robotyne and continued south, bypassing Novoprokokivka.
In this map, you can see the Southern front on 1.6. and now, 27.8.
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The first significant fortified obstacle is located just outside Robotyne. The Russians have prepared formidable defences, which include covered firing positions and bunkers. From here, the Russians can defend against attacks from both north and east.
Zoom in for details. 3/
At the moment it seems like Ukraine doesn’t want to attack straight towards these heavily fortified positions.
Instead, they’re flanking the whole village of Novoprokokivka, and have established themselves between the positions south of Robotyne and the main defence line. 4/
The Ukrainians have roughly two immediate directions:
1. Try to open up the main road in Novoprokokivka and continue towards the heavier main defence fortifications at Solodka Balka.
2. Try to breach the main defensive line near Verbove and continue towards Ocheretuvate. 5/
Let’s take a look at the defences in the village of Solodka Balka. At the beginning of August, Russians were improving the positions they built during spring. You can see a lot of construction material, especially steel elements, which are used as roof material. 6/
The Russians have built 100-350m long communication trenches, which helps them both reinforce or retreat from the fighting positions. The built area of the village works as a buffer zone, and immediately after the village ends, another trenchline begins. 7/
Heavy fortifications are built in order to block any potential advance on the main road towards Tokmak. This is an important avenue of approach, so defending it is very logical. However, while concentrating on this section, the Russians may have missed something important. 8/
The main defence line west of Verbove seems to be in a significantly worse state.
At the beginning of August, no preparation work for finalizing these trenches had begun. At the end of August, low-resolution images show almost no signs of any trench improvements either. 10/
There are sections with no covered firing positions and very few accommodation bunkers, even though great effort was put into this in other places.
However, the Russians tend to fortify the treelines, but only limited indicators of this can be seen in these images.
The topographic heatmap gives also some additional insight to the battlefield. Russians have constructed most of their defences on dominant heights, and there is no way to completely avoid fighting uphill.
The highlighted ridge is the next tactically central point. 12/
The height differences are not extremely dramatic, and the treelines reduce the Russian field of fire. In this area, the best attempt for the Ukrainians would likely be to continue forward, breach the line between Solodka Balka and Verbove, and start flanking operations. 13/
This situation would provide a better basis for future operations, for example attacking the actual villages of Verbove and Novoprokokivka. Widening the salient is necessary in order to create a sustainable frontline. 14/
Soon, AFU has to start clearing the flanks more intensively. The offensive cannot continue south indefinitely - Ukrainians must, at some point, start focusing more on Kopani or Verbove.
Ukraine may face challenges in force distribution and prioritization. 15/
If the attacks in the flanks do not succeed, the spearhead will also slow down, giving the Russians time to prepare defences in depth.
This is actually happening already - the Russians have started constructing additional defense lines in the Berdyansk/Mariupol direction. 16/
So, the main points of this thread:
- Fortifications are not as strong in all areas of the first main defensive line, as known as the Surovikin line
- Russian preparedness varies
- Positive developments for Ukraine are possible in the near future, especially local success
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Thanks for reading, this thread took forever to make. The images are from 1.-2.8.2023. They do not endanger Ukrainian OPSEC in any way.
Thanks also to @wihurinrahasto for funding us!
Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to follow the situation. 18(18
There are many things I am good at. In this thread, writing the name of Novoprokopivka correctly was not one of them. The mistake was made in the beginning, and I repeated it multiple tames. Sorry!
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One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar.
In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/
Chasiv Yar is an important city. It’s the last somewhat larger built area before the crucial crossroads town of Kostiantynivka and other important cities in Donetsk. Encircling the city is difficult, as the Donets-Donbas canal forms a difficult obstacle for mechanized units. 2/
Ukraine has constructed several layers of trenches and other defensive positions north and south of Chasiv Yar. Even if the Russians managed to cross the canal at some point, they would still need to break through multiple fortified positions to seriously threaten the area. 3/
Russian Telegram channels are flooding with videos of a terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, a music venue Moscow.
The video material suggests that there were at least four attackers, some sources say five. They were armed with fully automatic AK-type assault rifles. 1/
The building was set on fire during the attack. According to Ria Novosti, a Russian state media, the "fire is getting stronger". This means confirming the amount of dead and injured may take a while. 2/
The third year of the Russian full-scale invasion begins, and Ukraine is facing multiple difficulties. There's no room for optimism, as many problems can’t be solved in the coming months.
In this thread: Issues, threats and the future. 1/
While Ukraine was on the offensive in 2023, Russia silently amassed significant forces. Since mid-October, Russians have been attacking on multiple fronts. At the same time, Ukraine faces both external and internal challenges. Let’s start with the Ukrainian problems. 2/
Ukraine experienced unfortunate losses in 2023. The summer offensive was costly, but it didn’t reach any strategic goals. After the summer, the losses were increasingly difficult to fully replace. The military leadership likely saw the incoming problems. 3/
I watched Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin. It exemplifies how a person who thinks too much of himself is put into the position of a useful idiot.
Dictators aren't interested in truth or journalism; those who think otherwise are only deceiving themselves. 1/ 🧵
Carlson's bias is well-known. He has repeatedly criticized Western media and leaned towards the Russian narrative.
Even though there was no critical element involved in the interview, he may have genuinely thought he still could get something valuable out of it. 2/
For me, the expectations were low. Everything Putin said was predictable, as is often the case with dictators. All the talking points have been heard before. The end result was a boring lecture, where Carlson was unable and likely also unwilling to challenge Putin. 3/
Russian operations in the Kupiansk direction have continued with varying intensity for months.
Russian gains have been very limited, but this evening the Russians announced that they have taken the village of Krokhmalne. 1/6
Ukrainians have also reported continuous Russian attacks in the Synkivka area. Despite Russian efforts, they haven't been able to punch through Synkivka, which would be the shortest route to Kupiansk.
There's also no indication of Russians continuing far beyond Krokhmalne. 2/
Krokhmalne, a small village with only a handful of houses, is the first Ukrainian village the Russians have been able to capture anywhere in months.
It's worth noting that they actually re-captured it, as Ukraine liberated the village in autumn 2022 (and took some POWs too). 3/
Ukrainian operations on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river, in the village of Krynky, have been ongoing since October 2023.
In this thread, I'll analyze the current situation and the future of the bridgehead in Krynky.
The thread includes high-resolution satellite images. 1/
A brief timeline of the events in the Dnipro River Delta since the liberation of Kherson. The “river war” has been a long process, often conducted in challenging conditions.
However, it has not generally been discussed as much in the media as some other sectors. 2/
In the village of Krynky, Ukrainian forces have been fighting a difficult battle for a prolonged time. The area controlled by Ukraine is small and natural cover is very limited. There is a forest next to the village, but it seems the Ukrainians have not advanced far into it. 3/