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X accounts like @DefMon3 below are reporting that the RuAF have repositioned the VDV 76th Guards Air Assault Division from Kreminna Luhansk to the Robotyne area in Southern Ukraine.
Russia's military-logistical delema🧵
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Russia's military-logistical delema🧵
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https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1696101937165250627
Moving 6,000-to-8,000 VDV troopers to Robotyne on a priority basis, with the Kerch & other Crimea rail bridges closed, means they went by semi-tractor trailer from Rostov-on-the-Don to Melitopol, then by AFV to Robotyne.
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Putting that VDV 76th Air Assault Division "pig" through the RuAF logistical "python" on an emergency basis has opportunity costs.
Moving the 76th means RuAF is not moving fuel, ammo, beans and bullets to the troops that are on the Robotyne axis.
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Moving the 76th means RuAF is not moving fuel, ammo, beans and bullets to the troops that are on the Robotyne axis.
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https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1695648735898837472
As @DefMon3 mentioned, the VDV 76th Air Assault Division is RuAF strategic reserve, but there is more to it than that.
The 76th Guards Air Assault Division got its guts ripped out near Kyiv at the opening of the war, so Russia backfilled it with reservists and mobiks...
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The 76th Guards Air Assault Division got its guts ripped out near Kyiv at the opening of the war, so Russia backfilled it with reservists and mobiks...
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...& have been heavily attrited in fighting since then.
The 76th is a 'regime security' unit. It is chosen for political reliability first, & given the newest air transportable armored vehicles to put down rebellions.
If you are thinking 'Praetorian Guard', you are correct.
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The 76th is a 'regime security' unit. It is chosen for political reliability first, & given the newest air transportable armored vehicles to put down rebellions.
If you are thinking 'Praetorian Guard', you are correct.
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Whether the 76th Guards Air Assault Division flew to Rostov-on-the-Don and picked up equipment, or came by train with their equipment, isn't known.🤷♂️
They were brought to backstop a lot of 20% to 50% strength units.
(H/T @secretsqrl123)
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They were brought to backstop a lot of 20% to 50% strength units.
(H/T @secretsqrl123)
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FYI, Western combat units are considered 'combat ineffective' at 70% strength.
The AFU advances south of Robotyne appear to be on the verge of a strategic advance in order to warrant such an emergency move.
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The AFU advances south of Robotyne appear to be on the verge of a strategic advance in order to warrant such an emergency move.
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https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1695887518091100378
And there is a sound military-logistical delema driven reason for this "Pig down the Python" move of the VDV 76th Air Assault Division.
It is the threat of AFU drone surveillance & GMLRS fires dominating the M-14 highway out of Rostov-on-the-Don.
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It is the threat of AFU drone surveillance & GMLRS fires dominating the M-14 highway out of Rostov-on-the-Don.
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Russian military forces have nothing that can stop GMLRS from ravaging it's semi-tractor trailer lifeline from Rostov-on-the-Don if AFU units push close enough.
Close enough being between the 2nd & 3rd Surovikin line, and Ukraine is on the 1st line right now. (H/T @defmon3).
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Close enough being between the 2nd & 3rd Surovikin line, and Ukraine is on the 1st line right now. (H/T @defmon3).
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The one thing that is certain is Russia is paying a far higher price in counter attacking AFU advances on the Robotyne axis than simply defending.
The short distance to GMLRS range on the M-14 is the heart of Russia's military-logistical delema.
10/10 End
The short distance to GMLRS range on the M-14 is the heart of Russia's military-logistical delema.
10/10 End
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1695728209545908600
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