Impressive thread was done by the @Black_BirdGroup about defenses in the south. In relation to this subject, I'd like to add additional insights and context. My intention is not to critique their presented report, but to emphasize crucial details that need to be added. 🧵Thread
2/ Frequently, I see analysts focusing on visible defenses. This could foster the perception that the first defensive line is where fortifications are visible through satellite imagery, based on the presence of features like dragon's teeth, trenches, or anti-tank ditches.
3/ In my perspective, this tendency can be attributed to the Streetlight effect - an observational bias wherein people exclusively search where it's easiest to look. In the context of satellite imagery, this translates to focusing on only visible defense structures.
4/ However, considering on-ground reporting, it's worth noting that virtually every tree line has been fortified to some extent. These fortifications range from concealed positions for ATGM and machinegunner teams to discreet well-protected individual positions
5/ In this short timelapse video spanning from May to August, I've highlighted fortified zones that mappers often chart. However, by looking at damages it's evident that the true theater of combat was across all tree lines visible in the area.
6/ Which brings me to the point where I contest the definition of the first defense line by looking at anti-tank trench with pyramids, considering that there were dozens and dozens of manned tree lines with defense positions which were already destroyed or captured by our forces
7/ This distinction holds significant weight, as statements such as "Ukrainian forces haven't reached the first line of defense" could be misleading. In reality, our forces have gained control over numerous tree lines that constitute major defensive formations.
8/ Ultimately, the destruction of enemy forces and assets positioned within these tree lines carries greater significance than obstacles like dragon's teeth and AT ditches, which can be circumvented in under 20 minutes when the enemy is suppressed or lacks the resources to resist
9/ In this final clip north of Robotyne, most tree lines have been heavily shelled due to intense battles fought over each one, making this hidden defensive formation more important than the widely discussed mapped lines.
I'd like to fix my earlier statement. Saying "20 minutes" might sound dismissive due to the battle's complexity, so it's inaccurate. I aimed to show that poorly manned or unguarded positions aren’t the biggest issue, but "20 mins" is incorrect statement.
10/ P.S.: I believe the main battle is ongoing, leading to the deployment of russian strategic reserves. This implies we should avoid statements like "Ukraine hasn't reached the first defense line," even though they might eventually retreat to the "Surovikin line."
11/ I'd like to retract my comment about 20 minutes. Using "20 minutes" might come across as dismissive considering the complexity of the battle. My intention was to highlight that unmanned or undermanned positions aren’t the biggest issue, but "20 mins" is incorrect statement.
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A few observations drawn from insider insights, open-source data, information from russian internal documents, and conversations with senior officers, frontline soldiers, and volunteers - based on developments from Spring through Summer 2025. Thread🧵:
2/ Since early 2025, Russia's personnel losses have remained among the highest since the war began. But at the same time, Ukraine has faced a sharp rise in desertion and AWOL cases. The pace of Russian territorial advances is higher than during the same period in 2024.
3/ Each year follows a similar pattern: Russian forces form a pocket around a town, Ukraine cites manpower shortages and lack of aid, Russia takes heavy losses but advances, Ukraine inflates already high Russian casualty figures, while Moscow grossly downplays them
Penza Military Plant “Elektropribor”: Preliminary Damage Assessment
🧵Thread:
1/ In the early hours of August 2, Ukrainian UAVs struck multiple targets in Russia, including refineries and military-industrial sites. Here’s what’s known so far about the strike on Elektropribor
2/ First, we verified the strike by geolocating both the recording’s POV and the impact site. The location matches satellite imagery, confirming social media reports that the Elektropribor plant in Penza was targeted by a drone. Impact coordinates: 53.224696, 44.966005
3/ Elektropribor supplies a range of electronic products to both the Russian military and law enforcement: automated control systems, encrypted communications equipment, radar technology, and more. Construction of the targeted facility began around 2018.
What we know about today's ambush on Russian mercenaries in Mali.
🧵Thread: 1/ The attack likely took place on August 1st in the Mopti/Segou region, central Mali. At least 3 mercenaries were killed, though the actual toll is likely to be 4 KIA and 8 WIA from the African Corps:
2/ The perpetrators are JNIM, an Al-Qaeda branch in Sahel. There are currently no indicators suggesting Tuareg separatist involvement.
Equipment was damaged as well. In the video, our team identified what appears to be a Ural-4320 MTP-A2.1, delivered to Mali earlier this year
3/ In January 2025, our team documented hundreds of Russian vehicles moved to Mali via Guinea. Since then, at least two more shipments have followed. Based on visual comparison, we’re confident is the same Ural MTP - a mobile workshops that helps to recover and repair vehicles
Early Damage Assessment of Drone Attack on Penza Radio Plant - July 31, 2025
Preliminary analysis of imagery reveals multiple buildings suffered damage ranging from light to severe. One building appears likely to be completely inoperable. Frontelligence Insight reports. Thread:
2/ Based on high-resolution imagery, unavailable for public release due to license, our team concluded: at least one building sustained severe damage; another has signs of penetration and fire, a third likely suffered penetration but no fire; and a fourth appears lightly damaged
3/ Overall, this attack appears to have been more successful than several others on larger facilities, primarily due to the significant fire damage inflicted on at least one building. The strike’s depth is also notable - approximately 600 km from Ukrainian-controlled territory.
In July, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte claimed Russia produces 4 times more artillery ammo than the NATO. To assess this, RFE/RL and CIT analyzed data on Russian vs. NATO ammo production and concluded that the situation is not as nearly dramatic. Thread with key findings🧵:
2/ According to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Russia produced 250,000 152mm rounds in 2022, one million in 2023 and planned to produce 1.325 million in 2024. In practice, however, researchers note that Russia produced slightly more than 1.3 million 152mm rounds
3/ Ukrainian military intelligence offered a higher estimate. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, Russia produced a total of 2 million 152mm and 122mm artillery rounds in 2023 and planned to produce 2.7 million rounds in 2024
An earthquake with a magnitude of 8.7 struck near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, a city located in the same bay that hosts several key Russian submarine facilities and naval infrastructure. Given the quake's intensity and the resulting tsunami, some damage is possible. 🧵Thread:
2/ The earthquake’s epicenter was located roughly over 100 kilometers from Avacha Bay, home to Russia’s Pacific Fleet, which hosts both diesel and nuclear submarines. Early footage from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, indicates damage from both ground shaking and tsunami.
3/ The bay has multiple installations, but three stand out: the North-Eastern Repair Center, which services both diesel and nuclear submarines; the Rybachiy Submarine Base, home to Pacific Fleet submarines; and a specialized SLBM loading jetty used for arming submarines.