Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 29 18 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I've been meaning to do a thread on this @PStyle0ne1 post below for several weeks because of the cost/price point implications for 21st century drone versus post WW2 conventional warfare.

There are huge cost/attrition warfare implications for an FPV drone reaching 17 km.

1/
Reusable DJI drones dropping grenades like these run around $5,000.

2/
Quadcopter drones like these with FPV controls and a small antipersonnel warhead cost ~$300.

3/
And an anti-tank warhead equipped FPV drone runs to $600 dollars.

4/
And Ukraine is adapting FPV drones into a reusable form for anti-personnel work and I've no doubt anti-tank versions of these "FPV Stuka's" will be showing up on both sides.

Ukraine has a lead on Russia, but the follower, but is closing.

5/
For which, see this Russian radio relay drone which will also allow deep, tube artillery range, FPV drone engagements.

6/
From the cost point of view, this means a great deal.

German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is producing 10k run of 155-mm L15 shells for 3,300 Euros each.
7/
technology.org/2023/01/05/how…
A $5,000 grenade dropping drone that completes three missions dropping nine $30 grenades will do more damage to Russian troops in trenches than a single $36,600/3,300 Euro L15 155mm shell because a grenade dropping drone is a flying cluster munition.

8/
packaged-media.redd.it/ygvvhivqs2lb1/…
A flying cluster munition with man-in-the-loop aiming for each cluster munition that minimizes the dud cluster munition threat to civilians post-war.🤨🤔

That's bad enough for the "King of Battle", but it gets worse.

9/
At the 3,300 Euro/$36,030 L15 155mm shell price point, you can buy 12.1 antipersonnel one-way FPV drones or 6.1 anti-tank FPV drones for each or any combination between 6 and 12 FPV drones depending on the target set.

10/
And when they FPV's get reusable, the cost advantage goes asymptotic.

Assuming an additional $30/$100 per mission cost for grenades on a reusable FPV for three missions before loss.

That is 4.5 antitank FPV and 9.3 AP FPV's.

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But we are talking 12 anti-tank FPV missions and 27 AP FPV missions for less than the cost of a single L15 155mm shell built Rheinmetall in a lot of 10,000 shells.

Anyplace on a 21st century battlefield that can be reached by an FPV drone, will be, because it is cheaper.

12/
Yes, jammers are going to stop FPV's, sometimes.

The problem is jammers stopping Excalibur and GMLRS GPS signals are much cheaper per area covered because of line of site issues.

FPV Jamming signals are stopped by hills, buildings and forests.

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Line-of-sight requirements mean you needs thousands of small jammers for a divisional front, transmitting where you want things protected, in a world where jamming signals can be geolocated by drones outside jamming range.

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Artillery will certainly have a specialist mission in a FPV dominated world in dropping dumb proximity air burst and cluster munitions on jammers, but indirect fire killing will be by FPV drones.

The ability of FPV drone operators to become "ace" is already on the agenda.

15/
This Daniel Boffey article in the Guardian has an interview with the Ukrainian five time FPV ace Olexsandr.

16/
theguardian.com/world/2023/aug…
Olexsandr has killed 20 Russian fighting vehicles as of the 7 Aug 2023 date of publication, in Zaporizhzhia.

Olexsandr destroyed between $20 and $40 million of Russian combat vehicles for ~$12,000.

That is less than the cost of four L15 155mm shells.

17/ Image
The Field Artillery "King of Battle" is being dethroned in the early 21st century.

He costs too much for the work he does compared to cheap and sneaky ass FPV drones.

He is being demoted to battlefield role of the air burst & cluster munition "jammer janitor."

18/18 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 29
X accounts like @DefMon3 below are reporting that the RuAF have repositioned the VDV 76th Guards Air Assault Division from Kreminna Luhansk to the Robotyne area in Southern Ukraine.

Russia's military-logistical delema🧵
1/
Moving 6,000-to-8,000 VDV troopers to Robotyne on a priority basis, with the Kerch & other Crimea rail bridges closed, means they went by semi-tractor trailer from Rostov-on-the-Don to Melitopol, then by AFV to Robotyne.

2/ Image
Putting that VDV 76th Air Assault Division "pig" through the RuAF logistical "python" on an emergency basis has opportunity costs.

Moving the 76th means RuAF is not moving fuel, ammo, beans and bullets to the troops that are on the Robotyne axis.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 27
Those Pentagon or US Military officials saying Ukraine should use fewer drones and more ground patrols are as divorced from 21st century reality as Major General John Knowles Herr, the last branch chief of US Army horse cavalry, was from 20th century warfare.

1/
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After the Sept 1940 fall of France to German Panzers, Gen Herr argued before Congress for more horse cavalry.

This paragraph from wikipedia on Herr applies to those Pentagon officials talking about drones to the Washington Post in @Tatarigami_UA 🧵


2/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Know…
Image
We are in the age of drones.

Drones are cheaper to lose than soldiers afoot or in vehicles doing ground patrols for the same information.

FPV Quadcopters can fly between tree branches.

Just look at what you can see in this drone review video🤦‍♂️


3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 25
Jan Kallberg, @Cyberdefensecom, has a wonderful piece on Russian Army logistics in Southern Ukraine that is well worth the read.

I'm going to clip from and expand upon it in this 🧵

1/
Image
The previous strikes on Crimean rail bridges, the more recent ones on the Henichesk, Chonhar, & Kerch bridges, interwoven with the systematic destruction of ammo/fuel depots in Southern Ukrainian and Dzhankoy Crimea, means that the "land bridge" that goes through Rostov-on-the
2/ Image
...Don, Taganrog (Russia), Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Melitopol on the M-14 highway is the primary ground line of communications (GLOC) logistical artery for the Russian Armed Forces (RuAF) in Southern Ukraine.

3/ Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 25
This is an important point here by @JayinKyiv.

My eight point checklist of things Ukraine had to do for it's counter-offensive to be successful is as follows:

1. Kill RuAF artillery. Check

AFU to do list🧵
1/
2. Systematically Kill RuAF jammers. Check



2/
And check**

** Capture means the jammer is compromised and will become much less effective.

3/
Read 22 tweets
Aug 24
The stupid at the US Department of Justice lawsuit here just burns.

SpaceX signed a government contract to adhere to ITAR.

1/
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The ITAR law is written in such a way that only US Citizens or foreigners with permanent resident status can be employed.

The DoJ has to prove that SpaceX is discriminating against asylum seekers and refugees compared to the number that have permanent resident status...

2/ Image
...are qualified and are available in the local employment pools where Space X has facilities.

Hint - The DoJ has lost similar lawsuits in Montana and the Dakota's because there are not that many African-Americans living there.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Aug 24
This should not be a surprise.

Neptune's manufacture Luchs has a line of highly accurate IMU's, AKA inertial measurement units.

1/
For which see this Aug 4, 2022 Tweet where I mentioned Luchs laser ring gyro IMU's.

2/
It is also why I called the Russian Saki Air Base hit in Novofedorivka, Crimea as a Neptune hit on August 9, 2022.

See the thread here⬇️


3/
Read 5 tweets

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