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I'd like to tamper expectation about the new Ukrainian activity behind the tank ditch near Verbove.
The available evidence does not mean this is a "confirmed breach" of the Surovikin line.
Ukrainian forces very well may have breached it, but we need more evidence.
Thread.
The available evidence does not mean this is a "confirmed breach" of the Surovikin line.
Ukrainian forces very well may have breached it, but we need more evidence.
Thread.
https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1696865712499736887
The new geolocated footage (h/t @moklasen) shows Ukrainian foot-mobile infantry of the 82nd Brigade, likely reconnaissance elements, operating just west of Verbove.
The new footage shows no evidence that these forces have heavy equipment behind the trench or dragon's teeth.
The new footage shows no evidence that these forces have heavy equipment behind the trench or dragon's teeth.
The absence of heavy equipment suggests infiltration, not a breach. The 82nd may have breached it, but that confirmation will come when we see larger units or heavy equipment beyond a small unit of foot mobiles.
Russian sources also claim that there has been no breach yet.
Russian sources also claim that there has been no breach yet.
Standard caveats apply to all Russian claims.
The next major reason I'm hesitant to call this a "breach" is because the footage does not indicate that all components of the Surovikin line's tri-layered defense (ditch, the dragon's teeth, and the fighting positions) are breached.
The next major reason I'm hesitant to call this a "breach" is because the footage does not indicate that all components of the Surovikin line's tri-layered defense (ditch, the dragon's teeth, and the fighting positions) are breached.
Ukrainian forces have not necessarily penetrated the final component of the line - the Russian fighting positions near Verbove. Notably that area of the tri-layered defense has a significate distance between the teeth and the fighting positions.
Presumably the Russians have fighting positions in a perimeter around Verbove given where the other observed fighting positions north and south of Verbove are, and how those array into the larger structure of the tri-layered defense. (Probably fighting positions traced in green.)
I will be very happy to be proven wrong, however, and I expect to be when the breach occurs for real. (Assuming it hasn't already.)
And I do think the Ukrainians will breach this line, including the tri-layered defense, in earnest with heavy equipment in the near future.
And I do think the Ukrainians will breach this line, including the tri-layered defense, in earnest with heavy equipment in the near future.
Probable*
Significant*
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