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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
@PhillipsPOBrien
Aug 30 • 4 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
People may be asking why Ukraine can advance through the minefields now a little quicker. The minefields in and of themselves were never the problem--it was when the minefields were part of well staffed and supplied Russian lines that they were effective.
It may be that the Ukrainian campaign against Russian artillery has been successful enough that it has allowed for the attrition of Russian forces to such a degree that the minefields are no longer being defended as they were. If so, it is no accident, it was the Ukrainian plan
I will add this quote from @MBielieskov who explained Ukrainian strategy extremely well in this article. The attrition campaign was designed to help get around the minefield problem. euromaidanpress.com/2023/08/23/the…
Image
One thing I hope people start to realize is that, as the Ukrainian army probably has a better idea about to fight its war than western militaries, Ukrainian military analysts often understand the war better than their western counterparts.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 1
If I may, I see a number of people saying now that the Ukrainians should be more receptive to criticism, that NATO can teach them, that they themselves have been critical of the counteroffensive, etc, etc. I think these comments miss the point. Ive spoken to Ukrainians...
about this and while I in no way am speaking for them, I will try to summarize what I believe they were telling me (and it matches what Podolyak, Danilov, Zaluzhny and others have said in the past week).
1) Its not constructive advice aimed to help Ukraine if its being fed anonymously to major newspapers as parts of stories about how the counteroffensive is not a success. Constructive advice can be given in private by people the Ukrainians trust, and they are more than happy.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Aug 30
Ukraine attempted a complex, UAV attack across six regions in Russia last night. Attacks reported in Pskov, Moscow, Ryazan, Kaluga, Bryansk and Orlov. theguardian.com/world/live/202…
This seems to be a well coordinated, complex operation to hit a wide range of targets. Here is a map of how scattered they are. Image
This would have required excellent ISR, a well built up stockpile of UAVs, coordinated launches and the like. It’s not clear how much damage was done, but the Pskov attack does seem to have resulted in something significant.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Aug 27
Now that the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Prigozhin, we can categorically say the decision of the Ukrainians to fight for Bakhmut (which ended up devastating Wagner) was the right choice. For a number of reasons.
1) the losses Wagner suffered led to Prigozhin’s growing split with the Russian military. The longer the campaign lasted the more angry he became, and this led directly to the mutiny attempt. No Bakhmut, no mutiny. The mutiny not only crippled Wagner; it’s weakened Putin.
2) Wagner fought relatively well at Bakhmut, and with some real aggression. If the Ukrainians had abandoned Bakhmut, it would have preserved large number of Wagner forces, allowed them to recruit more, all of whom would be fighting Ukrainians now. Russia would have real reserves.
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 27
Really delighted that my latest piece in @ForeignAffairs has just appeared: The War that Defied Expectations. Its actually a companion piece to the article on the Great Power fallacy that came out a few weeks ago. foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/war-de…
The new one seems freely available now, so if you go quickly you should be able to read it. Here is the opening paragraph. Basically, in the same way that the realists did not understand power, I think much of the analytical community midunderstood what matters in war. Image
The result was that the Russian full-scale invasion was seen as something that would be fast and probably decisive--which was frankly a bizarre analysis considering everything we have seen of war over the last century.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 15
Really Interesting story about a presentation by RAF Air Chief Marshal Knighton. Russia still has most of its air force, but cant deploy it efficiently over the battle area. The strength of Ukr anti-air fire is too threatening. businessinsider.com/russian-air-fo…
Like with armor, the growing effectiveness of defensive systems means that (if you are not the US are can master mutually-supporting complex operations) aircraft are in real jeopardy in modern war and in many cases are not survivable.
It should be noted that this reality existed for the Russians from the start, even when they didnt have all the different anti-air systems that they have now (they had older Russian systems and hand helds). Still when faced with this the Russians could not operate air power....
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 10
Nice way to end the day
And you know the next step will be a productive deal about Ukraine and NATO. They are not going to screw things up now. NATO is European security and Ukraine will have to join the alliance.
This has all been on the cards (Finland, Sweden and Ukraine all in NATO eventually) since last summer. Its the natural reaction to Putin's colossally stupid decisions.
Read 5 tweets

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