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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Aug 30 • 11 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Small, cheap, low & slow drones are a b*tch of a target for modern integrated air defenses (IADS) in the age of satellite radar interference tracking of IADS radars.

Satellite radar interference tracking technology
🧵

1/
Tracking the orbital elements of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites so you know they are overhead will become survival level military procedures for Patriot, SAMP/T and NASAM missile batteries.

This need was apparent before this war.

2/
And the recent assault drone strikes at Pskov airport, Bryansk, Tula and elsewhere underline this reality in 🔥🔥🔥.

H/T @secretsqrl123
3/
Image
This lowered barrier to entry of space based surveillance of SAM radars that provide these drones with "routing stealth" which is a threat that is universal for any owner of an advanced SAM system.

4/
21st century Western militaries are ill equipped doctrinally and technologically to deal w/drones.

For example, where is the anti-drone dakka - the hordes of well aimed cannon barrels needed in the thousands - for the drone threat to SAMs & much else?


5/
And were are the technological modifications to SAM radars to hide from satellite interference tracking?

This is a survival issue for USN carrier battle groups in the Western Pacific.

6/
Image
China just launched a geosynchronous SAR-satellite over the South China Sea that can provide 24 hour 7 day a week SAR-Sat radar interference tracking of every active radar...

...including the Aegis radars of USN carrier battlegroups!

7/
 spacenews.com/china-launches…
Quite literally, "X marks the spot" for all those RADAC sensor equipped Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles.

8/ Image
And by that, I mean the PLA DF-21D ballistic missiles using 40 year old radar seeker tech combined with maneuverable re-entry vehicles.

9/
What is impossible for the 1st generation of engineers is merely hard for the 2nd and easy for the 3rd.

DF-21D Marv with RADar Area Correlator seekers [like DSMAC  - Digital Scene Matching Area Correlator - in the radio bands as opposed to visible light] are a 21st century
10/ Image
...implementation of the US Pershing II with 40 years newer electronics.

The easy availability of satellite radar interference tracking technology makes all radars merely easily killed targets for drones and missiles for those willing to put in the skull sweat to do so.

11/11

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 29
I've been meaning to do a thread on this @PStyle0ne1 post below for several weeks because of the cost/price point implications for 21st century drone versus post WW2 conventional warfare.

There are huge cost/attrition warfare implications for an FPV drone reaching 17 km.

1/
Reusable DJI drones dropping grenades like these run around $5,000.

2/
Quadcopter drones like these with FPV controls and a small antipersonnel warhead cost ~$300.

3/
Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 29
X accounts like @DefMon3 below are reporting that the RuAF have repositioned the VDV 76th Guards Air Assault Division from Kreminna Luhansk to the Robotyne area in Southern Ukraine.

Russia's military-logistical delema🧵
1/
Moving 6,000-to-8,000 VDV troopers to Robotyne on a priority basis, with the Kerch & other Crimea rail bridges closed, means they went by semi-tractor trailer from Rostov-on-the-Don to Melitopol, then by AFV to Robotyne.

2/ Image
Putting that VDV 76th Air Assault Division "pig" through the RuAF logistical "python" on an emergency basis has opportunity costs.

Moving the 76th means RuAF is not moving fuel, ammo, beans and bullets to the troops that are on the Robotyne axis.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 27
Those Pentagon or US Military officials saying Ukraine should use fewer drones and more ground patrols are as divorced from 21st century reality as Major General John Knowles Herr, the last branch chief of US Army horse cavalry, was from 20th century warfare.

1/
Image
After the Sept 1940 fall of France to German Panzers, Gen Herr argued before Congress for more horse cavalry.

This paragraph from wikipedia on Herr applies to those Pentagon officials talking about drones to the Washington Post in @Tatarigami_UA 🧵


2/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Know…
Image
We are in the age of drones.

Drones are cheaper to lose than soldiers afoot or in vehicles doing ground patrols for the same information.

FPV Quadcopters can fly between tree branches.

Just look at what you can see in this drone review video🤦‍♂️


3/
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 25
Jan Kallberg, @Cyberdefensecom, has a wonderful piece on Russian Army logistics in Southern Ukraine that is well worth the read.

I'm going to clip from and expand upon it in this 🧵

1/
Image
The previous strikes on Crimean rail bridges, the more recent ones on the Henichesk, Chonhar, & Kerch bridges, interwoven with the systematic destruction of ammo/fuel depots in Southern Ukrainian and Dzhankoy Crimea, means that the "land bridge" that goes through Rostov-on-the
2/ Image
...Don, Taganrog (Russia), Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Melitopol on the M-14 highway is the primary ground line of communications (GLOC) logistical artery for the Russian Armed Forces (RuAF) in Southern Ukraine.

3/ Image
Read 16 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 25
This is an important point here by @JayinKyiv.

My eight point checklist of things Ukraine had to do for it's counter-offensive to be successful is as follows:

1. Kill RuAF artillery. Check

AFU to do list🧵
1/
2. Systematically Kill RuAF jammers. Check



2/
And check**

** Capture means the jammer is compromised and will become much less effective.

3/
Read 22 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 24
The stupid at the US Department of Justice lawsuit here just burns.

SpaceX signed a government contract to adhere to ITAR.

1/
Image
The ITAR law is written in such a way that only US Citizens or foreigners with permanent resident status can be employed.

The DoJ has to prove that SpaceX is discriminating against asylum seekers and refugees compared to the number that have permanent resident status...

2/ Image
...are qualified and are available in the local employment pools where Space X has facilities.

Hint - The DoJ has lost similar lawsuits in Montana and the Dakota's because there are not that many African-Americans living there.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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