Bulletproof Beancounter Profile picture
Aug 31 14 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
One of the best ways to win fantasy football championships is by rostering the RB that breaks out out of nowhere

This is a hard feat to pull off as there are approximately 3700 options

I would like to introduce you to one of the bets that you simply have to make

Sean Tucker. Image
From a size and athleticism perspective Sean Tucker looks the part. Per @rotounderworld in the screen shot above Tucker measured in at a fairly robust 5-9 and 207 pounds while running a 90th-percentile 4.44 40.

We like that very much.
@rotounderworld Was Sean Tucker a one-dimensional runningback in college or was he trusted in all aspects of the game?

As evidenced by his 75th-percentile college dominator and his 95th-percentile target share, it is pretty clear that the offence in Syracuse ran through Sean Tucker.
@rotounderworld One of the most telling aspects of projecting fantasy runningbacks to me is the passing game because so few are actually featured in the passing game.

Sean Tucker was dominant all three years he played in college in the passing game.
@rotounderworld By age, he posted the following market share of receiving yards:

Age 18 - 5.9%
Age 19 - 13.9%
Age 20 - 8.4%

Each year cleared the benchmark I am looking for.
@rotounderworld Unlike most career paths, being a college dropout is a bonus when you are in the profession of carrying footballs.

Sean Tucker in fact did dropout early in order to join the ranks of the NFL and even better, he did it as a 21 year old.
@rotounderworld From here we want to know how he looked on the projector and it was… *cue the gif.
@rotounderworld Lance Zierlein of NFL,com gave him a grade of 5.94 which is really quite bad.
@rotounderworld Despite the poor showing in Lance’s grading system, had Tucker gotten drafted on day 2 or earlier he still would have qualified for bulletproof

Alas, he fell not just out of day 2, but all the way out of the draft…. thus, we have had to strip him of his badge.
@rotounderworld But, as a result of that draft day slide, so too slid his adp and he is currently a round 18 startup pick.

Here are the two most recent notes about him in my rankings: Image
@rotounderworld You will notice that we've been buying for months at this point in part because he is pretty good comparatively at his ADP, but also because Rachaad White is decidedly not a strong bet.

And now it has been reported that Tucker is already RB2 on the squad.
@rotounderworld and from here, we simply must double down.
@rotounderworld If this kind of thread is your jam, please hit the like and retweet and follow me, and check out my youtube channel and our podcast and patreon and all of the things that I good little content creator would tell you to do.

🤣😂

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More from @DFBeanCounter

Aug 24
Much has been said regarding Quentin Johnston's prospect profile and I've been dying to find the time to dive in with y'all.

So lets do the thing where we in fact, dive in. Image
At 6-3 and 208 pounds Johnston comes in as a prototype.

You might be thinking, 'what on earth is a prototype' and I am here to tell you that you should probably draft prototypes when given the opportunity.

To qualify as a prototype a player must be >195 lbs >5-10 and >26.0 BMI
I won't bore you with the details in this thread, but here is a link to a thread from three years ago outlining some aspects of it.

Read 28 tweets
Aug 21, 2022
If y'all want me to say, "Voldemort has peripheral metrics that suggest that he might be better than the 10% target share and 8 fantasy ppg player that he's been" then Ill admit it.

I am in fact expecting him to have greater than 10% targets and 8 fantasy ppg this season.
There are two things at play here.

#1 - The binary notion of is he "good or evil" at football.

#2 - Regardless of #1, is he a good pick in any format?

So let's take a look at #2.
According to @fantasypros his ADP is 73.

I have skewed this image to show more players below him than above him.
Read 74 tweets
Aug 20, 2022
Drake London.

To bulletproof, or not to bulletproof? That is the question.

Let's Dive In.
We will be putting Drake London through the Bulletproof process to see exactly how good... or bad, of a prospect he really is.
Courtesy of @rotounderworld ultraslick player page we can glean alot about his profile.

First things first. The dude is 6-4 and 213 pounds.

He is a mountain of a man and that qualifies him as a "prototype" in my process.
Read 50 tweets
Aug 8, 2022
Y'all hate Marcus Mariota simply because the Titans didnt pass the football.

Let's dive in.
If you think he's a bad quarterback, its probably because of the Titans pass attempts...

2015 - 34.4 (21st)
2016 - 31.5 (28th)
2017 - 31.3 (28th)
2018 - 27.2 (31st)
2019 - 26.9 (32nd)
Marcus Mariota's Yards/Attempt (Y/A) by year with minimum 250 attempts.

2015 - 7.6 (9th)
2016 - 7.6 (9th)
2017 - 7.1 (17th)
2018 - 7.6 (13th)
2019 - 7.5 (14th)
Read 22 tweets
Jul 28, 2022
One of the least understood aspects of fantasy football is projectable range of outcomes, imo.

Let's dive in.
I say this is a not well understood because you see people talking about a player's "ceiling" or "floor" and they don't seem to be grounded by reality sometimes

And maybe I am a total fool and I am the one misunderstanding, nevertheless, this is how I do it.
So lets pick a player.

Y'all seem to think I hate every player, so lets pick someone that I think you are entirely too low on.

Baker Mayfield.

I promise that this is applicable to every player, so if you dont care at all about Baker, don't worry, it will still be relevant.
Read 39 tweets
Jul 26, 2022
I know that Rashaad Penny is an absolute stud and will continue to be an absolute stud because when I look at his yards per carry not only was 6.3 last year really high, but it is incredibly stable as evidenced by his 4.9, 5.7, 3.1, and 6.3 marks in his 4 year career.
If there is one thing we can be sure of with abslutivity (made that up) it is that yards per carry is stable across the entire population of runningbacks.

This is from the great @TJHernandez's article.

4for4.com/2022/preseason…
But as you know, its not all about yards per carry, its about volume... and surely Rashaad Penny will be as volumous as ever.

As you know from the above chart we can see that rush attempts per game is moderately stable at 0.65...
Read 27 tweets

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